2000 presidential election: anyone keep old odds?

MrMonkeyBoy · Aug 28, 2003

Hi:

I am trying to get daily closing prices from the on-line betting markets covering the 2000 presidential election. I have already tried Blue Square and they said they do not give out that kind of data.

Does anyone remember other books which were taking action on the election? Better yet does anyone keep this kind of information themselves?

Koleman

PS This for some research I am doing in comparing internet markets to the Iowa Political stock market (for which I have data).

lander · Aug 28, 2003

Pinnacle has odds up.

I watch them occasionally out of curiousity, but I haven't been logging the movements.

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

H. Dean(d) is a slam-dunk to win DEM Primary *if* he takes Ia. & N.H. and he is ahead in both states .

ChuckSims · Aug 28, 2003

I don't think anybody had anything like that in 2000. It was either Gore or Bush, and the odds moved when somebody made a max bet. Polls also caused the line to move too. I remember Gore being a solid fav early and then Bush being a solid fav at election time.

lander · Aug 28, 2003

Frank,
What impact (if any) would an official running announcement from Gen. Clark make?

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

lander,

IMHO-- would not sway the heart & soul of the Dem party. Those folks love Dean's msg.

btw- I have 3 wagers on Dean from +280 to +175

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

I see pinnacle has Dean +150

lander · Aug 28, 2003

Dean was over +300 very early on, no?

Edwards started at +180 or so ... he's really fallen.

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

lander I cannot swear to it but I think Dean was around 350 early.

Intertops has +175

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

Talkin' about MO

---------------
Dean Doubles Kerry In New Poll

A new poll out today shows democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean is not only leading the democratic presidential race in the key state of New Hampshire, but his lead more than doubles the support of the runner up, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. According to the Zogby International poll, 38 percent of New Hampshire Democrats say they would vote for Dean, while 17 percent say they would vote for Kerry. Two months ago Kerry was leading Dean by a 25-to-22 percent margin.

lander · Aug 28, 2003

I think Dean has done a great job with the internet audience. I'm always getting newletters (and beggings for money

) from the Dean camp.

Still don't think this guy has a chance against Bush. The dems would have a better fight with a war hero - like Kerry or Clark IMO.

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

Let me paint with the broadest brush I can

The Left HATES Bush! Dean's msg is what they want to hear... The Left will drive this Primary and they dont want a Bush-Lite and Kerry & Clark are/will be perceived as such.

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

Dean's problem...

The media... they enjoy building-up someone 2nd only to tearing someone down. If Dean is the clear front runner the media will start snipping at him.

SkyMasterson+ · Aug 28, 2003

Mr monkey Boy,

The odds fluctuated greatly as I scalped them. They ended effectively averaging with Bush a slight favourite with most books but I believe that 10/11 was available in some places.

D2bets · Aug 28, 2003

FF, I don't think Kerry or Clark would be perceived as Bush-Lite. Not at all. Lieberman yes, but not Kerry or Clark. They disagree with Bush as much as Dean does.

I agree that the left hates Bush. So what does that mean? That means they will do whatever it takes to get him booted out. In other words, they will go with whoever they feel has the best chance to beat Bush. If he decides to run, that will in short order become Gen. Wesley Clark. It doesn't get much more left than Janeane Garofolo and Michael Moore and both have been tripping over themselves in their praise of Clark.

The left wants to support a winner and that will drive the primaries. Polls showing who matches up best against Bush will be crucial.

With that in that mind, does anyone actually have odds on Clark or have a 'field' bet available?

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

>FF, I don't think Kerry or Clark would be perceived as Bush-Lite.

Dean has already compared Kerry to a Bush-Lite. So much so, Kerry had to capitulate on his 'yes' vote in the senate to support an attack on Iraq.

lander · Aug 28, 2003

D2,
Has Clark actually announced his running?

I know he's being pressured & read that his people have raised over 1 Mil (just in case

), but I haven't seen anything about him making it official.

D2bets · Aug 28, 2003

Ok, well I was referring more to Clark who was outspoken against the war and has impeccable credentials to do so. How would Clark be Bush-lite?

When asked about Clark Dean shows a ton of respect and openly says he'd be difficult to run against. Naturally the hype is that if he got nominated he would just love to have Clark as VP so he doesn't want to burn any bridges.

FatFrank · Aug 28, 2003

Kinda early guys... Anything could happen.

My suggestion to the dems

Run Clark and hope he does NOT get the nom. then have a Hilary/Clark ticket next time.

D2bets · Aug 28, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lander:
D2,
Has Clark actually announced his running?

I know he's being pressured & read that his people have raised over 1 Mil (just in case

), but I haven't seen anything about him making it official.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Last weekend he said he'd decide "wihtin a week or two." Speculation was that it'd be maybe on Labor Day but now maybe it's pushed back a little. It will be very soon one way r another. Insiders are insisting that he will get in. Donna Brazile said she was expecting him to run and Clark had consulted her a few weeks ago about matters. Word is also that the "Clinton fundraising machine" would spring into action for him and also the top leaders in the house and Senate Pelosi and Daschle are urging him to run. He could seriously create a huge buzz and groundswell. He has the right stuff to win this thing. It'll be interesting to see how it goes if he gets in. As far as I'm concerned, unless someone else jumps in, it'd be between Dean , Kerry and Clark. None of the others have any chance whatsoever. Clark would immediately jump toward the top as a contender. Momentum would be key.