Forum: Classic Threads From The Past - Visit here for a great "blast from the past" and view some terrific, informative and interesting "Classic Threads" posted by thousands of savvy sportsbettors over the years here at The Rx.com.....

Thread: Why would anyone ever wager on a pre season football game?

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
  1. #26  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    1,633
    I'm big on planning ahead. I always go with a friend of mine who lives about 40 minutes away and has his duaghter every other weekend so the Bills have to be playing a home game the weekend he can get away. (On a side note, my buddy is the nephew of Ed Walsh, who was Jim Brown's high school football coach). It's such a small world isn't it?

    Big Lou
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #27  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    520
    Yeah TTinCo, it seems rather obvious that you fit the profile of a compulsive gambler.

    By the way, what you quoted was not meant to be informative. It was just part justification for my not believing there to be value in the preseason.

    And it turns out that that info on Plummer getting only 10-12 snaps resulted not to be so golden afterall because Plummer shined the entire time. I don't even know how many snaps he took. The point is that you will not expose any inefficiencies at Vegas when betting on the preseason action. Just wait until the regular season. Preseason presents us with the opportunity to scout and scout only. Why risk money on games when its been 8-9 months since the last time you saw these guys in action.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #28  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    329
    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
    Betting on pre-season is based too much on ones own opinion and information provided by the media or head coaches, which all too often is incorrect. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


    Who the hells opinion do you use to cap Lou if not your own? I certainly rely on my ownself & where prey tell are cappers going to get info without the media unless your connected to an NFL team, which hardly anyone is.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #29  
    . TTinCO's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Sunny place for shady people
    Posts
    28,775
    Yeah Boxing.....I'm full blown compulsive.

    Let's see-I've bet about 10 fights & 10 to 15 baseball games since pucks ended. I better go now & find a GA meeting.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #30  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    114
    My philosophy is to ONLY bet on playoff games. The strongest teams know they can't afford an off-day so they go all out. Not always easy to stay on the sidelines but football is now an extra source of income that I rely on.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #31  
    "American Idol Capping Expert"
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Posts
    7,591
    sean - so u do not bet alll year?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #32  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    1,633
    I meant people seem to bet on the pre-season based on their opinion (like how rookies are going to play in their first ever NFL game or how a team is going to react to a new head coach) rather then time tested methods like systems, statistical angles, etc. My opinion rarely comes into play in making a wager.

    Big Lou
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #33  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,251
    the majority of NFLX games are toss-ups. If you determine that player A will play for 2 quarters, how accurate is the line that you come up with? Throw in the numerous players who have played very little in NFL regular season games and how does that affect that line? I can see where perceived motivation and a specific gameplan may add value to one team, but this can be very difficult to quantify---and may change throughout the game.

    I revert back to my assumption that most of these games are toss-ups, which adds instant value to the dog and the dog moneyline. And this makes 2nd halves even better, IMO. This does not apply to every NFLX game, but keep in mind that if you have a win% of over 60% across a small number of games, this can be as much a product of luck as it is skill. I dont see how someone can wager as much on a preseason game as a regular season game with all the question marks. Do people wager larger amounts on preseason baseball than during the regular season? Just my thoughts, and I suggest CAUTION, there are week 1 lines that look 10 times more valuable to me.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #34  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    329
    The time tested methods, systems, & statistical angles that you refer to plays only a very small part of my handicapping. I think you use some of that as well as throwing some of yourself into the game to cap it. To each his own I suppose.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #35  
    The Great Govenor of California Railbird's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Posts
    15,319
    Books crushed all the wannabe wiseguys this weekend. Books cleaned up on Jets, Cards and 49ers. Books adjust accordingly now a days, preseason is not as good as it use to be. Too many idiots playing past records of coaches and over reaction to qb rotations. Much more value in tennis, golf or little leauge.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #36  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    114
    IDENTITY
    Certifiably Crazy

    posted August 10, 2003 10:25 PM
    sean - so u do not bet alll year?

    Yep. That is correct. My fate boils down to 2 or 3 big plays on selective playoff games.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #37  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    137
    5-2 in week one. Pre-season has always been a $ maker for me. Lean toward dogs.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #38  
    RX Semi-God Dante's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    71,757
    good job crandell
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #39  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    US
    Posts
    14,040
    last 16 dogs, went 11-5..
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #40  
    The Great Govenor of California Railbird's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Posts
    15,319
    SSI,

    whats that suppose to mean, you going to play 16 more dogs this week. past doesnt = future.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #41  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    US
    Posts
    14,040
    actually rail, i am going to play all the dogs this week for 1 unit ($100). we shall see how it works out..
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #42  
    RX Senior RobFunk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Internet
    Posts
    47,432
    bump
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #43  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    VIRGINIA
    Posts
    119
    just caught this thread. So easy, 15-4 this year. Really IMO so easy, they tell you what to expect. Follow some team and coaching trends. Best trends are good head coaches don't care about the first pre-season game. New HC's are always trying to win to prove themselves. I wish the whole year was pre-season. Andy Reid in Philly likes to win game #2.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #44  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    PNC PARK
    Posts
    915
    Preseason is the FREE season!!!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •