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Thread: A SECRET WAY FOR THE AVERAGE GAMBLER TO BEAT BOOKMAKERS! (by Sick Gambler)

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  1. #1 A SECRET WAY FOR THE AVERAGE GAMBLER TO BEAT BOOKMAKERS! (by Sick Gambler) 
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    Ok folks, forget what the Shrink says about how to do it. If you do it his way, you will eventually go broke, mark my words. All that crap doesn't exist, because no matter how big a loser you are in gambling, you will ALWAYS end up very very close to 50% in picking winners. So if you end up even hitting 52% lifetime over 100,000 games, you will be broke. This is a myth about taking opposite sides of bettors. The only reason all these bettors lose and go broke is NOT because they cannot pick winners. It's because the juice just adds up on them and they eventually go bankrupt. A good buddy of mine has easily hit over 51% lifetime, but is broke today because the vig caught up to him.

    But if you really want my advice and NOT a silly tip like the Shrink just gave you, here is how you will really end up a winner.

    ONLY ONLY ONLY BET OFF #'S. IF YOU ALWAYS END UP WITH A BETTER # THAN THE CLOSING LINE, YOU WILL BE A WINNER IN THE LONG HAUL.

    IN NBA- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 PT BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

    IN NBA TOTALS- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

    IN NHL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 10+ CENTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

    IN MLB- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 5+ CENTS (10 CENT LINE) BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE

    IN NFL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE, DEPENDING ON THE #.

    _____________

    This is the best and most accurate advice I can give you. If you ever see a book with a # that is different than everyone else, JUMP on it, no matter who it is. Even if you don't like the game. If the book bumps its favorite, take the dog. If the book bumps the over, jump on the under. Trust me folks, this works like magic. Let the book make your pick, not you. Once you start handicapping a game like saying, Barry Bonds won't win in the playoffs because he's a loser, or NO way this game will go over because the under is due, or the yankees have lost 3 straight, what are the odds they get swept and lose 4 straight at home, you WILL eventually end up in the poorhouse, mark my words.

    Have numerous outs to bet into, not just one.

    Don't bet over your head.

    Stay within your means.

    Do NOT chase when you have a bad night, and you want to double up on the late game. There will be 48 more bets to choose from in 12 hours.

    Do NOT bet over 0.5-1.5% of your bankroll or you will be broke with 1 or 2 bad weeks. You have to stay in the game, because the trick in this business is to not go broke. Once you're broke, you are out. You will be able to raise your bets once you build yourself a little cushion.

    If you don't find any good #'s that night, DON'T bet. DON'T just bet for the sake of betting. This will hurt you in the long run. If you wanna bet a tv game because you're bored, put in a very small bet on it, very small.

    ____________________

    There you have it folks, I can sit here and give you a bunch more tips, but these are the main ones.

    Forget what that Shrink is saying, he has NO idea what he is talking about. You will just go broke if you listen to that guy. Sometimes I wonder if this Shrink guy is really a square or not. If he wasn't so successful in this business, I'd swear he is. Thank God he gets the plays from someone. Can you imagine if he had to come up with his own plays? He'd be the #1 customer in the offshore industry. Books will love this guy. They would offer him free trips, free escorts, the works...
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  2. #2  
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    You have to cut down on the novels you write

    I didn't read it ! Can someone provide the cliff notes version of what Sick posted ?

    LET'S SMOKE SOME REEFER
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  3. #3  
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    Excellent post Sick. Basically, you're using the numbers to create your own "vig" against the bookie. Hell, if they can make a living doing this then why can't we?

    I think this strategy is excellent in theory, but it takes a VERY "controlled" person to do this in reality. It's easy to f*** up a months worth of bankroll management with a few compulsive plays. More of less this is what bit Journey in the ass a few weekends back.

    Sick, I'm curious - say you average 4 games a night throughout the year where you find these "reverse vig" games. What return do they generally average? I would imagine it would be +.0125 units per day on average. Have you actually calculated this?
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  4. #4  
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    sorry hung, but I'm a sick man.

    lander,

    at 1 pt better in NBA, you get about +.02%.

    So if you bet 4 games day at 500 a pop, for 365 days a year, you will end up clearing close to 15,000 for the year, not including re ups, bonuses, referrals, (if you have friends) % back on monthly losses. And if you bet 1 dime a game, it's double, at 30k a year, not including all those perks. You can actually clean up if you do this. And you are right, this takes a lot of discipline. Tough not to bet on a NFC championship game if you don't find value.
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  5. #5  
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    Just trying to get to 1000 posts so I can get a free shirt

    LET'S SMOKE SOME REEFER
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  6. #6  
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    Sick,
    That was shamelessly correct and right on... The only better advice I can think of is to never gamble, drink or chase women and put all of the money that you are tempted to do those things with into bonds....

    But that would be shamelessly impossible....
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  7. #7  
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    Do you know, particually in NFL & NBA, if there is more value in taking the valued line or trying to middle it against the current air line.

    I suppose it depends on the situation, but lets say you found (I actually did find this, but didn't middle it) GB +1.0 & Chi +1.0 last night. Would you have taken GB +1.0 since most books moved to GB -1 or is it more adventageous to middle this line?
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  8. #8  
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    lander,

    that's not a good middle at all. There are no ties in NFL, so that was a useless one. It was NOT a moneymaker. I would just take the value, which in this case happened to be GB+1. You will end up making more in the long haul if you just bet the wrong line and not middle or scalp, because when you scalp or middle, you are usually getting great value on one side and betting the real # on the other.
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  9. #9  
    Smell like "lemon juice and Pledge furniture cleaner." go2guy's Avatar
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    For a moment before I actually read the title and not the actual post, I thought you were going to ask us to send you $100 for the info [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img] Nice write-up!
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  10. #10  
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    Go2,
    As I am self-admittedly shamelss, I will be happy to send you MY neteller or ****** ID for you (or anyone else) to deposit $100. After all, I would be saving you from the temptation of spending it on the evils of vice!

    [This message was edited by Shameless Schill on 10-08-02 at 03:53 PM.]
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  11. #11  
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    Thanks for the advice.
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  12. #12  
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    Sounds alot like following steam to me. The books just love that... [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img]
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  13. #13  
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    not necessariy cecil. If the Knicks are -2 painted everywhere, but one specific book decides he's a genious and thinks that the Knicks should be a little higher because the line is low. So the book makes it Knicks -3. You now jump on the dog +3. That's it, it's that simple. Where is the steam here? The game never moved. This happens quite often, believe me.
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  14. #14  
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    Sick, I think another key is finding an opinioned yet solid book that offers opinionated lines. It's not such as easy thing now days with more & more books "moving on air" with the DB screen.
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  15. #15  
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    lander

    you hit the nail right on the head. Of course you can find 5 books that are off by 2 points in the NBA, but will you get paid? So find some books that are very opinionated, and make sure they're solid, because what good is a book if it's not going to pay you when you win.
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  16. #16  
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    I can understand that if you can better the consensus by enough you can counteract the vig.

    But you indicate bettering the closing # by n points, etc. How do you know what the closing # is going to be in any of those sports? If you jump on the "off" line and it moves the wrong way your "supposed edge" evaporates!

    What if the book is 1' off consensus because it is the first to be hit or react to steam? So now the steam hits everyone and you don't get the other side at 1' better instead you got the one "off" at less than it ends at and get the worst of it being in the middle of that play!

    I can see if you feel the closing number is 50-50 accurate and can consistently make plays far enough off of it to better the vig, but it seems like reading moves and accurately prognosticating the closing # has to be part of that equation, NO?

    Earlier this year I saw an NFL total early in the week at consensus 41 and one out of mine had 40' and another seemingly off on its own at 42'. I middled it and it didn't hit(way over). By the end of the week it was at 43 consensus and 43' could be found. If I had used your method I play the und 42' since it was 1' off consensus at the time. But it is a hook WORSE than consensus closing in the end. This might be an extreme example, but it shows why I don't think its that easy to do what you propose! If you know that 42' book is sharp, maybe you play off of it instead. I didn't know they were onto a sharp line so I wasn't that sophisticated in waiting for a bigger buyback # though the winner was way over anyway.

    GL [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif[/img]
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  17. #17  
    RX Senior dimeplayersonly's Avatar
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    that is excellent advice, the only problem with it is that the "average gambler wont follow it thats why they are average. the advice you outlined is what sharps use. trust me on this ive been dealing lines to the "average player for close to fifteen years.
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  18. #18  
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    That was the best, most relevant post I've ever seen in this forum.

    No flaming, no off subject meandering, no idiotic social commentary, just damn good advice..a professional's advice.
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  19. #19  
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    dime,

    I agree. But this method can be done by squares just as easy as sharps. All the square has to know is don't bet a game that is not off. I know it's easy to say, and it's hard to imply, because you have to be able to control yourself from not gambling when there is a tv game about to start. All you have to do is stare at the screen, and when you see a different line, you just submit it. It's that easy.

    Buckeye.

    I agree 100% with you. It could get tricky. But when you find a -8.5 and the consensus is -9.5, there might be a play come in on the dog at +9.5, and the line moves back to -7.5. Meanwhile, you now have -8.5, when you could have had it at -7.5. But also, it works both ways. You could have bet -8.5 when it was -9.5 painted, and the play comes in on the fav, and the line goes to -11.5. So now you have a -8.5 when the line is -11.5. You have to look at it like this,in the very long run, you will avg out very close to 50-50 in terms of line movement.

    Mathematically, there is NO difference if you have two bets at 1.5 pts better

    OR

    two bets with one of them being 1 pt worse of the #, and the other bet being 4 pts to the better.

    Just remember, it will all even out. As long as when you put it in, you had the 1 or 1.5 pt advantage, the #'s will fall your way in the long haul. Half the time, the # will move your way and half the time, it will move against you. And a lot of times, it will just stay like that and NOT move at all.
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  20. #20  
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    thank you mr bryan
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  21. #21  
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    buckeye,

    I also forgot to mention that I say closing line because without a doubt, the closing line is the most accurate line. You wanna be able to beat that # anytime you can.
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  22. #22  
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    I have a local book who takes all his lines out of the paper. There seems to be a lot of differences on college games. Should I just bet all the games where I have a better line? Also,on the pros he ups the line on certain games. For example this week,he made Philly 4.5 instead of 3 and SF 8 instead of 6.5. I did bet against these two and split. I take it that you are saying I will profit from this in the long run. Thanks.
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  23. #23  
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    A guy who takes his lines from the newspaper????

    I'm moving to Maine tonight...Bangor, here I come.
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  24. #24  
    RX Senior dimeplayersonly's Avatar
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    a local book that uses lines out of a newspaper will not stay in business very long ......thats a 100 % gurantee. should you use him? sure but i wouldnt try to beat him out of more than a couple of hundred a week, otherwise you might not get paid.
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  25. #25  
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    I always have said this "bet flat to increase your gambling pleasure"! And look for bad #'s!

    I agree with everything sick says but I do like betting TV games, because thats the fun for me!

    So I just cap the games and if the # is way off of what I have, I bet it!

    Also if the public drives the total way up or down I bet the other side, so at least I get a positive #(baseball).

    Example: Today, I guess, the public started betting the under so I jumped the over at 10(+113).
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