This topic should be in Handicapping Zone, but I might get more attention here in this case.
I have probably made a mistake again and have posted false info in two topics.
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=49610692
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=36710752&r=91110803#91110803
After I started to make tracking program in Excel for my bets I saw there might be a mistake.
Math is so damn tricky as is betting also. If you look thigs differently, you will get different results and usually a first one is likely wrong. Which is correct way to calculate break even prices for parlays. To solve bookmakers vig on whole bet, as I first did, or just a break even price for line you are betting? I think a correct answer is a break even price line you are betting, but I'm not sure.
Here are break even prices for a line you are betting on and if you can't beat these odds on single wager you can't make profit on parlays in a long run.
Odd offered: -105
2 team parlay -111 (break even 52.61%)
3 team parlay -117 (53.92%)
4 team parlay -124 (55.36%)
5 team parlay -131 (56.71%)
6 team parlay -139 (58.16%)
Odd offered: -110
2 team parlay -122 (break even 54.96%)
3 team parlay -135 (57.44%)
4 team parlay -151 (60.16%)
5 team parlay -171 (63.10%)
6 team parlay -195 (66.10%)
And this is what I posted earlier (modified a little bit)
**********
True odds on single wager with a 10 cent line and the original odd was -105 and the vig 2.4%.
2 team parlay -116 (Break even 53.70%, Vig 4.74%)
3 team parlay -123 (55.16%, 7.03%)
4 team parlay -130 (56.52%, 9.26%)
5 team parlay -137 (57.81%, 11.44%)
6 team parlay -145 (59.18%, 13.56%)
True odds on single wager with a 20 cent line and the original odd was -110 and a vig 4.55%.
2 team parlay -135 (57.45%, 8.90%)
3 team parlay -152 (60.32%, 13.04%)
4 team parlay -171 (63.10%, 17.00%)
5 team parlay -195 (66.10%, 20.77%)
6 team parlay -225 (69.23%, 24.38%)
[This message was edited by Faceless on July 29, 2003 at 04:19 AM.]
I have probably made a mistake again and have posted false info in two topics.
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=49610692
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=36710752&r=91110803#91110803
After I started to make tracking program in Excel for my bets I saw there might be a mistake.
Math is so damn tricky as is betting also. If you look thigs differently, you will get different results and usually a first one is likely wrong. Which is correct way to calculate break even prices for parlays. To solve bookmakers vig on whole bet, as I first did, or just a break even price for line you are betting? I think a correct answer is a break even price line you are betting, but I'm not sure.
Here are break even prices for a line you are betting on and if you can't beat these odds on single wager you can't make profit on parlays in a long run.
Odd offered: -105
2 team parlay -111 (break even 52.61%)
3 team parlay -117 (53.92%)
4 team parlay -124 (55.36%)
5 team parlay -131 (56.71%)
6 team parlay -139 (58.16%)
Odd offered: -110
2 team parlay -122 (break even 54.96%)
3 team parlay -135 (57.44%)
4 team parlay -151 (60.16%)
5 team parlay -171 (63.10%)
6 team parlay -195 (66.10%)
And this is what I posted earlier (modified a little bit)
**********
True odds on single wager with a 10 cent line and the original odd was -105 and the vig 2.4%.
2 team parlay -116 (Break even 53.70%, Vig 4.74%)
3 team parlay -123 (55.16%, 7.03%)
4 team parlay -130 (56.52%, 9.26%)
5 team parlay -137 (57.81%, 11.44%)
6 team parlay -145 (59.18%, 13.56%)
True odds on single wager with a 20 cent line and the original odd was -110 and a vig 4.55%.
2 team parlay -135 (57.45%, 8.90%)
3 team parlay -152 (60.32%, 13.04%)
4 team parlay -171 (63.10%, 17.00%)
5 team parlay -195 (66.10%, 20.77%)
6 team parlay -225 (69.23%, 24.38%)
[This message was edited by Faceless on July 29, 2003 at 04:19 AM.]
