Pinnacle late line moves -- meaningful?

DarrylParsons · Jul 22, 2003

I am having a pretty lousy season with MLB so far and I am starting to get paranoid of Pinnacle's late line moves, as if they have some real predictive power...

Any time I bet on a game and Pinnacle's line moves in the other direction in the last 5 minutes or so before game time (ie. heavy betting on the team I did not choose), I seem to lose. And if the line move is in my favor, I seem to win quite often. It's almost as if the Pinnacle late bettors know something the rest of us don't know.

I've only been watching this phenomenon for the last couple of months so I don't know if it's just a fluke, just my paranoia, or if there is really something there.

Anyone have some comments to help me figure out the reality of the situation?

acw · Jul 22, 2003

You simply cannot get it more accurate than Pinnacle!

RPM · Jul 22, 2003

WHILE line moves arent as valuable as they used to be, they are still worth keeping an eye on.

EveryGamblersDream · Jul 22, 2003

No, book has sharper #'s then Pinnacle. Get 100 people betting the same games for the same amount at "x" amount of books & I bet the book that gets beat the least will be them.

acw · Jul 22, 2003

Ok Patrick,
I will be more complete then.
Pinnacle is the most useless book there is, because if they are ever off, then they will not lay one a decent bet.

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 22, 2003

I deleted what I said, I was probably wrong and don't want to steer people the wrong way.

desertdog · Jul 22, 2003

Not sure if they're always more predictive right before gametime. My experience is that generally they're a good place to bet the Over, especially right before gametime, and especially in baseball. I've seen a number of times they're on the wrong side here when the premium goes up on the Under. But on sides, especially favorites that get bet against just before gametime, they do seem to be on the right side alot.

SkyMasterson+ · Jul 22, 2003

Late line moves can be very powerful from ANY book if the bettors there have better information on injuries, weather etc but they can be misconstrued also as many books (CRIS in particular) move late to balance their books and not because of the information that they are receiving. At that point in the lifecycle of the market the moves can be very confusing and I would only really look at strong moves at a number of books when a key player is doubtful. In these sitautions if you ahve a good knowledge of a don best screen you could gain an edge

VG789 · Jul 22, 2003

Pinnacle moves the lines up and down all day long,watching their movement is a waste of time,since you dont know who moved them and why:
A scalper,a bunch of home town supporters,a sharp?

dimeplayersonly · Jul 22, 2003

vg789...........makes a valid point, its nice to know who is making the line move.....

krackman · Jul 22, 2003

You can't go by just one book's late lines moves but when 3 or 4 of them go the same way around post time. It is the stone cold nuts! This has been a VERY successful indicator for me in baseball this year. If you guys just follow the live line service here you will have an edge. Just watch and track it for a few weeks. Especially the late moving dogs.