Why don't more sharps post???

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 9, 2003

This was from Actuary's post across the street on the same topic but a very relevant question. One thing there is no return on investment. What's to gain by educating others? The second one is the tone of the forums. I love the example he said because it is so true. Say a guy says let's make a line on the Clemens-Pedro matchup over the week-end. Once a poster makes a line he thinks is right like -135 you have a few jerks who need to pile on. Instead of I disagree here's why, it's I'd like to empty my kids college fund and take a shot at that line you dumbass!!

I don't want to get off track here but what is it that encourages this stuff on line? And please don't tell me it is exclusive here, I have been all over the internet and it is everywhere. People you meet in real life are complete opposites of the way they act on the internet. I would guess the anonymity of it has something to do with it. People think they look smart if they bash others. Some people would share more but you always have someone ready to pounce on you if anything is off or they disagree. Every wiseguy I know says the same thing - not very many wiseguys post at the RX a lot but EVERY wiseguy reads it. If this is true there must be some value here. Wondering why more don't post.....

winkyduck · Jul 9, 2003

i know in the case of dave cokin he simply got tired of all of the crap he had to put up with here all the time and bailed. he would post something - not even a pick but an educated post for all to read - and all replies would bash him for something completely irrelevant to that topic. also - if he had a bad day (and this just in - EVERYONE has bad days - be they morons or sharps) and 5 good ones - all anyone cared about was the 1 bad day.

honestly - if i was a "sharp" this is pretty much the last place i would post or frequent.

Buzzsaw · Jul 10, 2003

Because it's bad luck.

And sometimes posters go off the deep end and try to start an argument with bizzare material unrelated to the thread

. Nah, that never happens

...it's the bad luck thing for sure.

PatrickMcIrish · Jul 10, 2003

LOL. I have budgeted free dinners for new posters next year.

Actually I think it's more they have nothing to gain by sharing anything.

raiders72001 · Jul 10, 2003

To the the truth I've come to a crossroad as to whether I'm going to post any more picks or not. The only reason I started posting picks during the football season was to prove a point. I continued posting plays because I was getting useful information from guys such as Irish,Sea, Don Marco, J2, Sixth Sense, Space,Vegasguy,Rooster,Space,JackD,VG789,jwdog,DickyW and Dime(there are more but I'm forgetting them now). Not only was I getting info in the sports that I capped myself but they gave me book info and winners in golf and soccer which I know nothing about. I only felt it right to give something back. Things have slowed down a lot and in all honetly the only thing that the guys in the baseball forum are good for is to slap themselves on the back any time they have a winning day. Most care more about their standings in the contests than the amount of money that they have won or lost. To prove what a joke the baseball forum is Jake Thompson has been on top the last two years. A 19 year old kid is the best that the RX has for baseball. Hopefully things will pick up again during the football season.

[This message was edited by raiders72001 on July 10, 2003 at 01:48 PM.]

valdosta · Jul 10, 2003

Why sharpen other people up? In the long run all you are doing is making it so you will end up with worse lines for yourself. The last time I checked people gamble to make as much $$$ as possible, so it's kind of counter prouctive IMO.

Oren1 · Jul 10, 2003

just keep betting on the Raiders, right? you can't lose, shit, they're UNDERDOGS at Tennesse, a team they spanked TWICE last year. It'll pick up for football, this place is a madhouse during the NFL season, isnt' it? I remember a lot of awesome posts from last year.

jwunderdog · Jul 10, 2003

I am round so I certainly can't speak for sharps, but the only reason I post plays here, is to payback several posters and books for there help on sports I can't capp(which is everything but two sports).

There is one other reason, to try to help some posters(the very few that are open to learning)actually make money gamble, something a lot of posters have never experienced over the long term.

acw · Jul 10, 2003

Patrick,

Some time ago you mentioned that it is not a good thing to bet on away team favourites on the NBA. Imagine Billy Walters reading it and going “Hmm, let me have a close look at how we are actually doing on those away favourites”, he discovers something interesting and uses it to his benefit. Do you think he will even say Thank You? It is true that People you meet in real life are complete opposites of the way they act on the internet., but still one is never likely to give much more away than one will get back.

I learnt my lesson already long time ago playing Black Jack. Apart from the ordinary counting there is shuffle tracking, ace tracing, back carding, picture viewing, defensive splitting, marked cards, spotting, etc. The funny thing is that many of these tricks can be invented by someone that understands all the mathematics of the game, but does not (like me) have the concentration, eyes or short-memory needed to turn them into an actual profit. Others in life may never understand that a spotted Ace is worth about 50%, but since you have told them that it is a good card, they can spot them, bet on them and show a profit. You are left empty handed. They get all the profit.

It goes without saying that I am not very much willing to give away the easy money makers, however I am willing to share how I discover them like what type of data I keep, software that I use, even formulas, but my efforts sharing information in this respect have shown little response.

BuzzRavanaugh · Jul 10, 2003

I really think during college football and pro football you get some sharp guys posting. I used to always read the Rodfather and stalled again had some great information during college football.

If I was a sharp baseball player I don't know how much I would post my picks in a forum for jeopardy of moving numbers away from where I could bet them. Some of the moves are pretty wierd right now.

VG789 · Jul 10, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by acw:
Patrick,

Some time ago you mentioned that it is not a good thing to bet on away team favourites on the NBA. Imagine Billy Walters reading it and going “Hmm, let me have a close look at how we are actually doing on those away favourites”
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Do you think that a syndicate or a wise guy is reading forums to find out stuff,like the above mentioned, that can be found almost at every betting/stats site?
Or do you believe that a syndicate doesnt have their own stuff?No way.

acw · Jul 10, 2003

VG789,

I just know for a fact that very obvious things can sometimes be completely overlooked in life.

cecil+ · Jul 10, 2003

"honestly - if i was a "sharp" this is pretty much the last place i would post or frequent." -Winkyduck

Why??? Where else are you going to go to learn about the industry, and stay on top of your game?
Just curious.

As for sharps not posting more, one thing you are seeing more and more of, is not as much sharing of info. Why? well, this is the slow season. Its pretty much not as easy for anyone right now to make as much money as before. Baseball betting is getting very competitive, and I don't mean book vs book I mean sharps competing to profit and get the best lines.
I think once football starts it might turn around, but I don't think alot of serious players are going to give away there money making ways this time of year anymore.
Seriously, there has been a couple times this year, where I kind of had just worked out a new wrinkle to my program, and then read about it on here a few days later.
For me, its just getting harder to stay ahead of the masses...

actually · Jul 10, 2003

sharps play their games, take their wins and go on with their lives. they dont hang out in forums to see who has the biggest dick

lurkerforages · Jul 10, 2003

Patrick is of course exactly right.
Nothing to be gained by sharing as you only tend to kill the golden goose.
Sharps do share info but on private member only forums where you have to be invited.

If the rx.com was really filled with sharps no book would advertise here.

-Slim- · Jul 10, 2003

they do, believe it or not, they just choose to go away after being pushed to the limit by the fools, clowns and demented freaks that post here. In the end, the sharps are gone and were left looking like a psychiatric ward....

lurkerforages · Jul 10, 2003

Slim, you are right.
Thats the kind of crowd sportsbooks want.
Gamblers and nutters.
If I was a sportsbook I would advertize here.
I certainly wouldn`t advertize at a site like sharp sports betting.

Sharps read and lurk in these forums but mainly for info on slow paying books and sportsbook offers.

Seven · Jul 10, 2003

lurkerforages said it best ¨Sharps read and lurk in these forums but mainly for info on slow paying books and sportsbook offers.¨

They just want more safes outs to use and they read the forums to make sure no books are going to close with their money. Hardly any of them post and if they post their picks it is after they already played the number that they like.

areeff · Jul 10, 2003

Why don't sharp's post anything of value?

There are already too many cooks in the kitchen. We don't need more intelligent bettors.

Every square is getting live lines and searching props for value now. More and more people are educating themself with Wong's reading and understanding calculating EV.

Line Shoppers.Scalpers are setting their alarm clocks now because they know they have to wake up before their friends even to get the better lines at the books they want or they get the 2c scalp instead of the 20c scalp.

The sharpest people who i talk to who i have learned much from never post here but do always read it.

Another fact is simply ECONOMICS. This is capitalism. Competition man to man for economic security. There is no reason or point to collectivize your knowledge.

DarrylParsons · Jul 10, 2003

I don't think there is a huge correlation between being sharp and not posting on forums. To post or not to post depends on whether you find this kind of social interaction enjoyable. I enjoy it because there aren't too many serious sports bettors at the local pubs and I really couldn't care less what's happening on all the popular tv shows.

I think sharps represent a small percentage of non-posters and posters alike, so there's no unusual phenomenon happening IMO.

As for giving away information, I wouldn't be too concerned since lots of people have given away all sorts of information on poker, for example, yet people don't seem to follow it despite being rather obvious. I'm talking about stuff like not playing too many starting hands, for example. Everyone and his grandmother knows that, but if you look at most poker games in real life and online you will find that they are as loose as ever. So sharing information will not cause too many people to suddenly change their behaviour IMO. Everyone has their own ideas (as do I) and they are pretty stubborn about them (as am I)