In case anyone was wondering about the upcoming Hilton football contest here is an article on today's home page.
Getting set for Hilton contest
7/10/03 - Stephen Nover
The invitation arrived in the mail yesterday, but it wasn't for a party or wedding. It was a sign up sheet for the Las Vegas Hilton's annual football SuperContest.
The rules remain the same: Make five weekly NFL selections (sides only, no totals) against the spread. Registration begins Aug. 1, and the contestant or official proxy must submit selections in person at the Hilton sports book.
First place is worth approximately $165,000 based on 275 entries, with the top 20 earning payouts. There's also a $10,000 early sign up bonus contest to those entering before 5 p.m. on Aug. 24. The Hilton throws in a $10,000 aggregate bonus to anyone who can hit better than 67 percent. Good luck on that one.
Oh yes, entry fee is $1,500. Is it worth entering the contest?
"If you think you're a good handicapper and have the money fine," said professional bettor Russ Culver. "If you have to beg and borrow money then it's not a good idea."
Culver has competed four times in the contest, finishing first in 1999. Another time he placed ninth. The other two times he only hit around 50 percent. His advice is if you're going to enter the contest, treat it as a five-year plan. Don't just do it as a one-time thing. Try doing it for five years.
"If you finish in the top-10 once in five years you've made money," Culver said. "But you have to hit 60 percent or you can forget about it."
This isn't an exaggeration. There was a record 281 entrants last year. Many of these handicappers are sharp, so to actually have a shot at winning figure you must hit at least 63 percent. Usually it takes between 64 and 66 percent to finish first.
According to research compiled by the Web site TwoMinuteWarning.com, if half the contestants handicap 55 percent you would have only a 50/50 chance of grabbing the top prize even if you hit an amazing 69 percent. TwoMinuteWarning came to this conclusion by running a simulated version of the contest 10,000 times.
"Now the truth is there are very few people who can handicap to 55 percent on selective plays, and even less who can do it under the rules of the contest," wrote TwoMinuteWarning in an article about the contest. "But the drift should be clear on this. The Las Vegas Hilton is a contest that requires a brilliant season and a good deal of luck."
While there are good handicappers in the contest, probably about one-third of the field consists of amateurs and squares. With such a large field, though, you're still going to need 60 percent winners to cash. You're also going to have to do this under a very tough format, with just one betting line.
"Some people can manage 60 percent by taking 3 1/2 and laying 2 1/2," Culver said. "Here you have to hit 60 percent playing bad numbers and passing on your favorite game because the number isn't right.
"In addition, you have to turn in all your plays 48 hours before kickoff, which takes out injuries and weather.
"This isn't hitting 60 percent on Sunday at noon by calling three different bookmakers and shopping five different offshore lines. It's a lot harder type of 60 percent."
Unfortunately, surrender isn't an option like it is at some blackjack tables. Have one really bad week and you're in big trouble. Have a second bad week and you can kiss your $1,500 goodbye.
"You have to hit the ground running," Culver said. "The year I won it I had my first week's picks figured out by the first week of August. Right now, I'm looking at the NFL every day. You can't wait until the exhibition season is over and say what are the lines on the first week.
"You have to have a feel for the teams in August. To win it you have to catch a wave. The years I didn't win it I never caught a wave. In '99 I caught the St. Louis Rams. The wave consists of certain teams either for or against. I already have three or four teams I'm ready to ride.
"If my waves are good waves then I'll have a good year. If they're not, then I won't. You don't re-handicap the NFL every week. The bookmakers will be slow to adjust. If a team that was 5-11 last year plays terrific the first week, everyone will just say it's a fluke. Maybe it's a fluke, maybe it isn't. If you like that team stick with it because they're only going to adjust that team one or two points."
Another piece of Culver wisdom is to throw out last year's won/lost records. Instead, dig deeper into team schedules and analyze the point in time teams played each other. Beating the New York Jets late in the season, for instance, meant a lot more than defeating them early when they didn't have their act together.
"There's a tendency to look at won-lost records too much," Culver said. "You have to see how the teams did against certain schedules, not just won/lost. That's where you can find a lot of mistakes by the public."
Getting set for Hilton contest
7/10/03 - Stephen Nover
The invitation arrived in the mail yesterday, but it wasn't for a party or wedding. It was a sign up sheet for the Las Vegas Hilton's annual football SuperContest.
The rules remain the same: Make five weekly NFL selections (sides only, no totals) against the spread. Registration begins Aug. 1, and the contestant or official proxy must submit selections in person at the Hilton sports book.
First place is worth approximately $165,000 based on 275 entries, with the top 20 earning payouts. There's also a $10,000 early sign up bonus contest to those entering before 5 p.m. on Aug. 24. The Hilton throws in a $10,000 aggregate bonus to anyone who can hit better than 67 percent. Good luck on that one.
Oh yes, entry fee is $1,500. Is it worth entering the contest?
"If you think you're a good handicapper and have the money fine," said professional bettor Russ Culver. "If you have to beg and borrow money then it's not a good idea."
Culver has competed four times in the contest, finishing first in 1999. Another time he placed ninth. The other two times he only hit around 50 percent. His advice is if you're going to enter the contest, treat it as a five-year plan. Don't just do it as a one-time thing. Try doing it for five years.
"If you finish in the top-10 once in five years you've made money," Culver said. "But you have to hit 60 percent or you can forget about it."
This isn't an exaggeration. There was a record 281 entrants last year. Many of these handicappers are sharp, so to actually have a shot at winning figure you must hit at least 63 percent. Usually it takes between 64 and 66 percent to finish first.
According to research compiled by the Web site TwoMinuteWarning.com, if half the contestants handicap 55 percent you would have only a 50/50 chance of grabbing the top prize even if you hit an amazing 69 percent. TwoMinuteWarning came to this conclusion by running a simulated version of the contest 10,000 times.
"Now the truth is there are very few people who can handicap to 55 percent on selective plays, and even less who can do it under the rules of the contest," wrote TwoMinuteWarning in an article about the contest. "But the drift should be clear on this. The Las Vegas Hilton is a contest that requires a brilliant season and a good deal of luck."
While there are good handicappers in the contest, probably about one-third of the field consists of amateurs and squares. With such a large field, though, you're still going to need 60 percent winners to cash. You're also going to have to do this under a very tough format, with just one betting line.
"Some people can manage 60 percent by taking 3 1/2 and laying 2 1/2," Culver said. "Here you have to hit 60 percent playing bad numbers and passing on your favorite game because the number isn't right.
"In addition, you have to turn in all your plays 48 hours before kickoff, which takes out injuries and weather.
"This isn't hitting 60 percent on Sunday at noon by calling three different bookmakers and shopping five different offshore lines. It's a lot harder type of 60 percent."
Unfortunately, surrender isn't an option like it is at some blackjack tables. Have one really bad week and you're in big trouble. Have a second bad week and you can kiss your $1,500 goodbye.
"You have to hit the ground running," Culver said. "The year I won it I had my first week's picks figured out by the first week of August. Right now, I'm looking at the NFL every day. You can't wait until the exhibition season is over and say what are the lines on the first week.
"You have to have a feel for the teams in August. To win it you have to catch a wave. The years I didn't win it I never caught a wave. In '99 I caught the St. Louis Rams. The wave consists of certain teams either for or against. I already have three or four teams I'm ready to ride.
"If my waves are good waves then I'll have a good year. If they're not, then I won't. You don't re-handicap the NFL every week. The bookmakers will be slow to adjust. If a team that was 5-11 last year plays terrific the first week, everyone will just say it's a fluke. Maybe it's a fluke, maybe it isn't. If you like that team stick with it because they're only going to adjust that team one or two points."
Another piece of Culver wisdom is to throw out last year's won/lost records. Instead, dig deeper into team schedules and analyze the point in time teams played each other. Beating the New York Jets late in the season, for instance, meant a lot more than defeating them early when they didn't have their act together.
"There's a tendency to look at won-lost records too much," Culver said. "You have to see how the teams did against certain schedules, not just won/lost. That's where you can find a lot of mistakes by the public."
