My Game of the Day.....Tues, July 8th.

MadCapper · Jul 8, 2003

1-0 on G.O.D.'s as the Braves came through to beat the Mets last night.

Marlins -134 Over Cubs

The Marlins are sending rookie sensation Dontrelle Willis to the mound against the team that drafted him back in 2000. Willis has been simply amazing since being called up on May 9th. He has quickly become the Marlins ace and perhaps the hottest and maybe even the best pitcher in the National League. On the year, Willis is 8-1 with a Bob Gibson-like 2.13 era. More recently, Willis has not lost a game in his last 8 starts with an almost never seen before 0.94 era. That's no typo. Thats a 0.94 era in his last 8 starts. in He also has something to prove to Cubs manager Dusty Baker for not selecting as a National League All-Star. The Cubs on the other hand are sending Carlos Zambrano to the hill. Where Willis has been accumulating the wins, Zambrano's wins are not coming as frequent. Though Zambrano has a very good era of 3.36 on the season, he only has a 6-7 record to show for it. More recently he is 1-3 with a 3.87 era. This tells us that the Cubs simply do not score runs for this guy. I assume he's a bit frustrated now as any pitcher with a good era would be when his team doesn't score. To add gasoline to the fire, the Cubbies have lost one of their top bats and gloves in Corey Patterson for the season with a torn ACL.
I see the Marlins winning this game on the super arm of rookie sensation (Whatcha talkin 'bout) Willis and Mr. Zambrano getting a frustrated a bit more.

Play on: Marlins -134 (8 units)

-MC

soccerbob · Jul 8, 2003

Mad- I don't want to put the whammy on your play but I love this game. I played it last night and laid -130 and thought that was cheap. Your analysis said all there is to say about this game.

lander · Jul 8, 2003

You boys got ripped off because -126 was up at BlueGrass all night.

GL fellas.

codeworks · Jul 8, 2003

wait for that runline

MadCapper · Jul 8, 2003

codeworks,

RL's are for fools.

Never take the RL when you have to lay little chalk on the money line.

-MC

soccerbob · Jul 8, 2003

Codeworks- I agree with Madcapper in this spot. It would be a very poor value to play the run line here. The price on the straight win bet isn't that high and you're only getting +130 or so on the run line. I laid -130 so I'm only getting 60 cents but have to win by 2. I realize The Marlins get that at bat in the top of the 9th and could cover it there or in extra innings but the straight bet is the way to go if you like the game.

lander · Jul 8, 2003

MC is right,
These teams simply don't score enough to play a runline ...

this one could easily go 1-0, 2-1.

docdekay · Jul 8, 2003

I dont mean to be contrary to be an asshole, but there is no way in hell am I laying wood with a rookie on the road. I layed off the game, but the only value here lies with the home dog and the extra half inning.

The better he looks the first half of the year, the more I look to fade him after the all star break. The prices will be obscene, just watch. The same can be said for Meche. I dont play sides very much, but I would never lay wood with a rookie at Wrigley. No way Fla wins this game on the road 57% of the time as -134 dicates. No way.

Journeyman · Jul 8, 2003

I agree Doc, this game looks so appetizing and smells like trap city...The too obvious usually is....GL MC!

suetoneous · Jul 8, 2003

For some mysterious reason... the line is going SOUTH on Willis

-125 at the pinn.

MadCapper · Jul 8, 2003

Doc,

The home team does not get an extra half inning. If they are losing they get the same amount of innings. If they are WINNING then they get a half inning less. The home team never gets an EXTRA half inning.

-MC

ChuckSims · Jul 8, 2003

Fla -125 is the play. The rookie will probably shut out the Cubs.

docdekay · Jul 8, 2003

I am not getting into a discussion over semantics with you. Road faves are at a disadvantage with the home team getting last licks. Period.

docdekay · Jul 8, 2003

I dont care if Fla wins this game. I did not bet the cubs, all I said, was that at the opening price -34, Cubs denote value.

~7~ · Jul 8, 2003

common since would tell you to fade some outragis "lock of the year" 8 units but this is a good looking play.

docdekay · Jul 8, 2003

My rational was not because MC like this so much. I am only saying that layin -34, Fla has to win this game more than 57% of the time to make money. I know MC is a good capper. All I am saying is that I dont like the play at that price. At -25 its a whole new ballgame. As a matter of fact, I would like to see you guys win $. This is not a matter of right and wrong. I may be obstinate, but I am not an asshole. GL guys. Please understand the reason I dont like this is NOT because MC likes it so much, but because I think that -34 is too high.

MadCapper · Jul 8, 2003

Doc,

This is great capping conversation. Thats whatn this forum needs more of. I value everything you say. Hope to continue more capping convos in the future.

-MC