SQUARE TALK - How to win at sportsbetting......

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SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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The disclaimer I will put on this is I am not the voice of authority on this. Not even going to pretend to be anything close. I will pass on some real life experiences of mine and more importantly hope others sharper than I will contribute. When thinking of the name who better to host SQUARE TALK than Mr Square himself. That's me Patrick McIrish. Part of learning in life is being humble enough to admit you don't already have all the answers. Got a dozen of the smartest men in the world who already post here, this is for us who are secure enough to admit we can improve. There's a saying one thing a man MUST know before he can teach his dog tricks is more than the dog. LOL. Not sure I know more than most here so keep that in mind. If we help one person learn some stuff it will be worth it plus I can tell Shrink I was busy working. The fact I love this stuff anyway is besides the point. Coming off my play losing 9-0 last night it seemed like the time was right for SQUARE TALK to get off the ground......


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In my opinion winning at sportsbetting is a lot like a football team as it evolves. I live in Tampa and in 1976 when the Bucs entered the NFL we went 0-26 in our first two seasons before winning a game, an NFL record. This year we won the Super Bowl. As you progress in sportsbetting you will notice changes in the way you think, just like a team does. They claim a team goes through 3 steps on it's way to being a proven winner. Again using the Bucs for example, when they entered the league they were going through step #1 which is hoping you can win. When you line up Sunday you have good intentions and a desire to win. Step #2 comes about when you evolve to the point where the team starts to thing we CAN win. No more hoping, the team works hard in practice and they feel they can win when they flip the coin every week. Finally step #3 is when a team EXPECTS to win. Doesn't seem like a big difference but when you expect to win versus thinking you can win it is night and day. We've all bet on teams and you just feel they will not lose this game. I sat in the Old Sombrero as Berman calls it and if the Bucs were up 21-0 at halftime you still just did not believe they would win. Nowadays if they are down 21-0 at halftime you still expect them to win. More importantly the same thoughts of either expecting to win or wondering if we would win were in those locker rooms. In both instances I would guess it showed on the field as well.


How does this correspond to sportsbetting? Not sure yet but trying to make up something. LOL. No the point here is first to win at anything you have to be honest with yourself. Some people will NEVER win betting sports. The reason for it is as varied as the chicks Dennis Rodman dates. Some don't win because they don't want to. Sure he'd like to win but he's calling his bookie to lay half a yard on his favorite team to win on a line he got out of the newspaper. Others want to win but they don't want to put the time or effort in to learn how. Still others would put the time in if they knew what they were suppossed to be doing in trying to learn. And yet still some others just want action. They are only betting because the tracks are closed, the on-line lottery is full or the midget throwing over in Australia has been suspended for a few days. They want ACTION! Having that action is much more important than anything else. As I said, lots of reasons people don't win.



For our first think tank I want to talk on the part about getting your bet down. Most wiseguys will tell you there is nothing more important in betting sports THAN PLAYING AT THE BEST NUMBER! It's a very good rule to get used to when conducting your business. Say I like the Bucs -6 but earlier it was -4, if I missed the price I need I pass on the game. The value has disappeared. If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important. In no real ogranized manner here are some suggestions for us squares.....


Nothing I hear more from a friend of mine than what's the big deal on the price? This guy makes 50 wagers a week but only has one out. Doesn't want another one either. I beg him to at least add a couple more outs but he just doesn't see it. I have shown him where a difference can be a 1/2 point to 2 points but it's no big deal to him. If you are going to win it has to be a big deal. Frankly I think the amount of outs is overrated in my view. Often people wear it as a badge of honor. "Hell I've got 83 outs I use, the wife carries another 20 if I need them". Unless you are running a professional scalp and middle team you don't need that many. You do need a bare minumum of 4 or 5 outs though. If you can't afford it or don't recognize why you need them than go find the naked picture or hangman thread and leave us alone here. The truth is though if you are playing with this few they have to be books who hang different numbers. No need in having a Skybook account and a Rio account if they hang the exact same prices. You need books who will have the greatest variance you can find on games. The idea being whichever side you are on you will have a shot at the best number. So a couple of good books who like dogs and a couple who like chalk would be a good start. If you don't know which books are which feel free to ask me, it changes depending on the sport. I also recommend keeping locals if you have any, I will get more into this down the road but they can be a nice ace in the hole.


I also think you need to start learning to set prices on the games too. Before you even look at the overnights for the lines you should practice setting your own lines. Nothing will teach you quicker what goes into the lines than trying to set your own. The numbers are set mostly for the books in order to attempt to get balanced action. Does not always mean they agree with the lines they hang necessarily. I'm just making this up (it may or may not be true) but if the public as a rule puts too much emphasis on a star's injury the pro's who set the openers may take that into account. Let's say Peyton Manning is out. With Peyton the line may be Colts -4, without him they may change it to Colts -1. In reality the line should only be -3 or so but if the public has a history of overreacting to a star's injury the guys who set the lines already know this. Be aware of the role injuries play in the lines. Also they may know the public loves to bet the Yankees, Duke, Cowboys etc... so they shade the lines against them. These aren't great examples but the point is in order to beat the lines you have to understand where they are coming from and how they are set. What all goes into them? How can you recognize value if you have no idea what something is worth? How can someone have an opinion on totals in baseball if they do not know what 7, 8 or 9 is worth? How often do these numbers hit and how many cents is half a run worth for example? Which is better 8.5 over -120 or 9 over +110? In poker one of the first things in Hold 'em we learned was get used to putting your opponent on a hand. Tough to play your hand and get any long term results if you have no idea what the other guy has. Practice it and it becomes second nature even if you have to back up in the hand to make an educated guess. "He limped in from early position yet he check raised the flop etc....." Does no good at all to see Pinnacle has the Twins at -180 if you don't have any idea where the number should be.


I will stop now and see if anyone else can add to what we have talked about so far or correct me if need be. Again I want to be perfectly clear that I work here so I'd like to have these talks but sometimes it comes across as me pretending to be some sort of wiseguy. I am just here trying to learn like everyone else. To me I have went through similar steps as I mentioned above in betting. I started out hoping I could win. I won't use the NFL because that is clearly my weakest sport and I'm fooling no one other than myself if I don't understand I have to work at this game. In baseball I can usually grind out a small winner for the season but it took a while to get here. I know of not one long term gambler who has not ever been busted. Not one! When younger I was busted more than a "Virgins Gone Bad" 3 pack special at the porn store. I started having a little success in baseball and began reading everything I could get my hands on. I opened up with a few more outs and began to study the game. Still wasn't really winning but slowly the attitude came that I felt I CAN win at this sport. Still I made stupid mistakes. I'd have no money management or discipline. I'd spend hours capping a game and if I lost it try and double up on the late game to get even. Or if I had money in my accounts or a positive balance than I could hardly stand to let it sit there until my next play, I wanted to get it in action. Mistake after mistake. Eventually I started to realize what it takes to win in baseball. I mentioned some of them above. More than one out where I can shop for the best lines. Some sort of money management and a basic understanding of what the lines and numbers represent. Slowly I began to EXPECT to win. While to this day I hate to lose I learned a bad night didn't discourage me off the long term plan. A night in sportsbetting is like one hand in poker, that's it. If you are making the value plays you will win long term. I don't know the disparity on how long a winner can lose or a loser can win but don't let that fool you, it can last a while. If you are making plays and taking the worst of it you will go busted eventually. I have played poker with people who said there is no way in this lifetime that man will ever go broke. If you are playing poker incorrectly, spending time at the crap table, playing slot machines with negative expectation or any of a number of things you will lose your bankroll eventually. The only variables are how often you take the worst of it, how big you are playing and how big your bankroll was when you started. There is no cheating in this game, you are only fooling yourself. If you are a loser at these games and taking the worst of it the only question is if you will live long enough to go busted. It's coming. Anyway thanks for listening men. If anyone likes this or gets anything out of it I will make it a regular thing. If not you won't hurt my feelings, they've toughened me up around here. Peace.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on June 30, 2003 at 11:21 PM.]
 

in your heart, you know i'm right
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nice post paddy. who are the books with the biggest differentials for football?
 

I GRIN WHEN I WIN
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SHRINK THIS KID IS GONE HE JUST WROTE A 3 PAGE REPORT OF SH-T I DIDNT UNDERSTAND ONETHING HE SAID MCPUPPET WERE YOU DRINKING TONIGHT.I HAVE BEEN GAMBLING 25 YEARS AND IN THE OLD DAYS I WAS ONE OF THE BEST HANDICAPPERS AROUND I ONCE KILLED A BOOKIE TRUE STORY I BET A HORSE 100 WIN AND PLACE THE HORSE WENT OFF 60-1 8500 DOLLARS I CALLED HIM THE NEXT DAY AND HIS WIFE SAID HE PASSED ON.I GOT MY BOSTON GLOBE AND SURE ENOUGH THERE WAS (PHIL THE BARBER) DIED OF NATURAL CAUSES I DIDNT GET THE FULL AMOUNT AFTER PHIL DIED HIS OFFICE ONLY PAYS 25 TO 1 BUT I DID GET PAID MAN THIS GUY PHIL WAS A STAND UP GUY.BOYS MY POINT IS I WAS GOOD BACK BEFORE ALL THIS LINE MOVE BULLSHIT AND COMPUTERS.THESE FORUMS HAVE F-CKED ME UP BELIEVE ME BOYS READING ALL THESE LINES AND WISE GUY MOVES IS THE BIGGEST CROCK OF SH-T AMD HAS REALLY SCREWED ME UP.I HAVE BEEN GETTING KILLED THIS YEAR BECAUSE AN OFFSHORE BOOK WILL HAVE A BASEBALL GAME -135 UNDER 9 I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE UNDER 9 WITH MY LOCAL GUY -110 FIGURING THE SPORTSBOOKS KNOW SOMETHING AND HAVE BEEN LOSING LIKE 70% OF MY PLAYS.IF I WASNT ADDICTED TO BULLSHITTING WITH YOU NIT WITS I WOULD THROW AWAY MY COMPUTER AND GOT BACK TO JUST BETTING THE GAMES AND F-CK READING THE LINES.
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Jesus H !

you expect people to read all that? I skimmed and even then it was way too much.

but thats just me..

Mr Negative
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I didn't read the whole thing either..
I hope there isn't a test..

But what I got from skimming it it was good Pat. GOOD JOB!
 

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and by the way..squares do not lose track of 713 dollars, in my opinion.. but then again neither should sharps.

I think you are being humble.
 

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"If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important."

you could increase your win % by not making this wager at all. discipline is the ONLY KEY to winning at this game. millions of good handicappers, hundreds of good line chasers and only a handful of winners. why? discipline thats why guys like B.W. play the numbers games, they to dont have the willpower to wait for a winner and then hang your hat on it. you need action every night? you will lose, no ifs ands or buts. give me a well handicapped situation at a good number and then we'll talk.anything less you can take it elsewhere cause it dont help me at all.

as far as progressing in knowledge, i grew up with some old timers who tried to save me alot of grief. i find today that if i had listened to their advice from day 1 i'd be way ahead of where i'm at today. i read a post today where someone was touting a great angle on a game. a response said "i saw that but i cant go against a hot team".. i have a feeling i know which of those two guys has the higher win %.

just as not everyone can be a doctor , not everyone can be a sportsbettor. not for a living anyway. if you sell hotdogs on the weekend does that make you a chef? admit what you are and play accordingly.

great thread patrick they should give you a job here.
 

SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MrKennedy:
Jesus H !

you expect people to read all that? I skimmed and even then it was way too much.

but thats just me..

Mr Negative
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<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


LOL, I'll put chapters on it next time.
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Thanks guys for the feeback already, may have some more to add once the crowd wakes back up.
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ODU GURU
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This is a really GOOD thread and I hope that gamblers take the time to read all the "pearls" that Patrick snuck inside...
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If he is a square, then I am Santa Claus!

Seriously, I would like to add that the INJURY portion of Patrick's post got my attention...

It amazes me how many squares will call me up during Football Season and ask me if I knew that Rich Gannon was "out" for the Raiders (as an example), and that "The Rams plus 6 is a Steal!"

Forget it!

It is my opinion that sometimes, bookmakers tend to "OVERCOMPENSATE" when a star player is out for a particular team.

They do this knowing full well that the "SQUARES" will be rushing to bet the opposite side of the game involving the injury to the star player..

Another factor to consider when betting on injury games is that quite often the team will bounce back and play even better when their star goes down...

Injuries are as important to handicapping as water is to human beings...

Being FULLY aware of your teams' overall health before betting on them is paramount to being successful at sports betting...

So my addition to the square talk is to have as much UPDATED injury information available to you as possible...

With today's technology and primarily the internet, this shouldn't be hard to do...

Good luck to all,

THE SHRINK
 

I GRIN WHEN I WIN
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SHRINK DO YOU EVER SAY A BAD THING ABOUT PATRICK MCPUPPET FINE HE IS ON YOUR PAYROLL BUT DONT PLAY US FOR FOOLS AND TELL US MCPUPPET'S ARTICLE WAS INTERESTING.GUYS HAVE BEEN SPECULATING ON INJURIES FOR 50 YEARS ITS NO SECRET SHRINK 1 OR 2 INJURIES DOESNT CHANGE A GAME THAT IS WHY IN THE OLD DAYS IF A STARTING QB WASNT PLAY THE GAME WOULD BE OFF THE BOARD END OF DISCUSSION THIS IS WHY THE OLD DAYS WERE BETTER.TO MANY LOSERS READ INTO AN OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS MOVE AND GET BURNED STAY WITH YOUR OWN CHOICES FROM WATCHING THE GAMES AND DONT BE SWAYED BY JOE PUBLIC.

SHRINK HOW COME YOUR UP MCPUPPETS ARSE LATELY IS HE THREATENING TO GO BACK TO MAJORS PLACE CUT THE SH-T ITS TO OBVIOUS YOU AND PATRICK ARE A LITTLE TO KISSY KISSY FOR ME.OH PATRICK YOUR GREAT I LOVED THAT BOOK YOU JUST WROTE I LOVE YOU PATRICK YOUR BETTER THAN BUTTERNUTTS PATRICK CAN I GO GET YOU SOME WATER JESUS CHRIST SHRINK HE IS UNDER CONTRACT LIGHTEN UP WILL YOU PAL ITS REALLY STARTING TO BUG ME
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Another great post. This and the record keeping post are hopefully the beginning of a series. For a square like myself, being able to read detail information from a positive expectation capper such as McIrish is a treat.
 

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my addition to square talk is this.. whenever you see a line and your reaction is oh my god this is a gift..

go the other way.
 

I GRIN WHEN I WIN
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THE BEST WAY TO WIN IS FIND FRIENDS LIKE MINE AND GO THE OTHER WAY I USED TO HOLD GUYS PLAYS WHO I KNEW WERE BORN LOSERS THEY ARE OUT THERE YOU JUST HAVE TO REACH OUT AND FIND THEM.EVERYBODY KNOWS A SUCKER IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OR THERE LOCAL TAVERN WHO IS A DEADBEAT GAMBLER AND YOU JUST KNOW HE IS WALKING AROUND WITH A CLOUD OVER HIS HEAD BUT LIKES TO BET FOOTBALL I LOVE TALKING TO THESE GUYS THEY ARE THE ONES YOU LEARN FROM.YOU JUST TAKE THE OPPOSITE OF WHOEVER THEY BET AND I WILL GAURENTEE YOU COME OUT AHEAD.F-CK THE GOLD SHEET,F-CK THE LINE MOVES,F-CK PATRICK MCPUPPETS BULLSHIT JUST FIND THAT CERTAIN SUCKER IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR DENNIS THE DUNCE AND GO THE OTHER WAY.THIS IS YOUR BEST CHANCE OF WINNING.I KNOW OF A BOOKIE WHO JUST PLAYS THE OTHER SIDE OF A GUYS ACTION AT ANOTHER SHOP THIS IS HOW CERTAIN THE GUY WILL LOSE.
 

ODU GURU
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Beantown,

You are on to something...

SERIOUSLY...

Something I love to tell friends of mine who love to gamble, but don't have time to handicap is the following...

Ask 5 people who they like on a football game, and whenever 4 out of 5 say take the Steelers, bet the opposite team!

THE SHRINK
 

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SHRINKWRAP- I have purchased a home and fine automobiles with only that advice. Lost it all back to the femdoms, but what the heck.
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By the way, NICE POST McIRICH. Shoot McIRICH, I may be playing your football picks this year at the rate your learning. Your on an accelerated learning curve sir. I forget something different that is important everyday, and in a few years will be back to SQUARE ONE. I need to curtail my fixation with women. Will never happen unfortunately.
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".I HAVE BEEN GETTING KILLED THIS YEAR BECAUSE AN OFFSHORE BOOK WILL HAVE A BASEBALL GAME -135 UNDER 9 I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE UNDER 9 WITH MY LOCAL GUY -110 "

Then scalp the number, moron. This way you wont have worry about picking anything except the trash.
 

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Patrick- I enjoyed that. You had some really good advice in there. The anecdotes mixed in there made for a good read.


sfeiner- I know what you were trying to say in the first part of your post. The best way to increase your win % is to pass on those iffy plays that just don't feel right. Having that weird feeling about a game and passing it is just as important as playing a game you really like.


Beantownjim- I like reading your posts. I'm not trying to break your balls but when you do the entire post in capital letters, it's tough to read and looks pretty stupid.
 

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I haven't read pat's lengthy article yet, but i sure will, but i got to side with beaner here, if you cant pick the right side of the bet, be it total or, well, side, then fvck the number, the only thing a beaner and a good number can get you is something like a +close to nothing in the end, the juice being the killer that it is.
 

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