No way you can beat this one....Winkyduck had this game so pegged it isn't even funny!!!
Awesome Job Wink!!
2003 CWS GOY
Friday, June 13, 2003
(@ Olympic) Cal State Fullerton (-120) vs. LSU (+100) @ 4P (PDT) on ESPN2
Every so often the gambling gods smile down upon me and give me something I really want. When the top 8 national seeds for the CWS were announced on Memorial Day (May 26) and I saw that if both teams made Omaha they would meet in the first round, I got on my knees and hoped this match-up would come about knowing if it did what side I would be on – BIG TIME! Thankfully, it has.
For some unknown reason, LSU was GIVEN a 2-seed (they deserved something a lot lower) while Fullerton was given a 7-seed (they deserved a top 3 seed – at the very worst). Looking back on it – the reason is obvious – former LSU coach Skip Bertman is on the NCAA (or N*SEC*AA) Selection Committee and pulled some major league strings in getting his Tigers a seed they had no business getting – NONE!
How can I say that – simple – take a look at some power numbers on these 2 teams:
BA (for/against):
LSU: .318/.262
CSUF: .333/.247
SB (for/against)
LSU: 59-78/48-66
CSUF: 111-153/26-45 (as you can see – fullerton runs so much they were caught stealing almost as many times as teams tried to run on them
K (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 388/504
CSUF: 348/484
***lsu has played 66 games this season, fullerton 62 – so these 2 numbers average pretty much the same per game – so no big advantage here for either side).
BB (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 246/184
CSUF: 212/121
HBP (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 50/53
CSUF: 106/50 (honest – not a misprint – fullerton gets a HBP almost 2 times a game)
HRs hit/allowed:
LSU: 82/48
CSUF: 34/32
***but it needs to be noted here fullerton plays in a pitcher’s park where balls literally die once they get into the air – so these numbers are greatly affected.***
Sacrifice Bunts (# of times they have/opponents have):
LSU: 23/29
CSUF: 44/30
***I will now say why I included this number. Lsu does not bunt very often and neither do their opponents. Fullerton bunts all the time. What this means is that at some time during the game, fullerton will sacrifice bunt. Because lsu is not used to fielding bunts, what will happen once a bunt is laid down is anyone’s guess. In past years when these 2 have played in Omaha, fullerton bunt’s have ended up all over the park because lsu is not used to playing “small ball.” I can see the same thing happening here and conversely, when lsu tries to bunt – something they rarely do – fullerton will know EXACTLY how to handle it and with lsu’s inexperience bunting the ball, something bad will happen for lsu and good for fullerton. This number also does not include bunts fullerton has beaten out for hits – which is a considerable number.***
Night game records:
LSU: 20-12
CSUF: 26-7
Numbers for the 2 probable starting pitchers:
LSU - Nate Bumstead
*************************
11-3, 3.97 ERA (almost 2 runs higher than his CSUF counterpart), 104.1 IP, 105 hits, 26 BB (WHIP of around 1.25), 8 HBP, 85K, 49 runs, 46 earned, 18 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, .263 opponents BA (highest of any of the LSU starters), SBA/ATT is (8-12)
***it also needs to be mentioned in his last 2 starts bumstead threw 121 pitches 5/31 vs. Tulane and then threw 124 6/6 vs. Baylor – meaning that arm might be a tad tired when he takes the mound and if that is the case – he and lsu are in deep trouble for pitches tend to hang a little more than usual, and while we aren’t a HR hitting team – leave the ball up in the zone and that could change – really fast!***
CSUF - Jason Windsor
**************************
10-2, 1.82 ERA, 84IP, 65 hits, 18 BB (meaning a WHIP of 1.00 – which, for college is unheard of), 5 HBP, 69K, 21 runs, 17 earned, 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR allowed, .213 Opponents BA (lowest of any of the starters), SBA/ATT (1-4)
***since I listed bumstead’s pitch count the last 2 games – might as well list windsor’s, too: 89 on 5/31 vs. USD and 93 on 6/6 vs. asu***
it also needs to be mentioned that in that asu, game, Windsor faced the nation’s top hitting and scoring team and held them to a season low 5 hits in 7 innings.
After fullerton beat asu to make Omaha, big west POY shane costa said this:
“On going to Omaha - "Most of us have been there before, but the first time we were just there to be there. This time we are going there to win and thinking about nothing but bringing home the trophy to Southern California."
I like the fact we have a team that is not happy to just be there and the reason I bring this up is I am hearing A LOT of talk from lsu about how happy they are to be there – and when I get a team that is happy to be there against a team that is there to win it – I am jumping on the team that wants to win it.
Now, I ask you, from looking at the numbers, who is the better team between LSU and CSUF? If you are like 99.99% of the people out there, you come to the rather easy conclusion it is Fullerton and not LSU.
Still not sure who is better, see what the polls say then:
Strength of Sked:
LSU: 112.2
CSUF: 112.1 (so they are basically even)
Non-Conf SoS:
LSU: 108.6 (32nd overall)
CSUF: 111.5 (12th overall)
RPI:
LSU: .633
CSUF: .632 (again – so close it is practically even)
ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings (a measure of team quality for NCAA Division I baseball)
LSU: 119.5 (10th overall)
CSUF: 126.1 (#1 in the nation)
Baseball America Ratings:
LSU: 5 (up from 8 the previous week)
CSUF: 2 (up from 3 the week before)
Collegiate BB:
LSU: 4 (up from 7)
CSUF: 2 (up from 5)
And here is a tad more to consider about fullerton:
Fullerton has the second-lowest ERA (2.75) in the country and no Titan pitcher has an ERA higher than 3.82. The Titans’ ERA in their six NCAA tournament games (including five against top-25 teams) is 2.21. Fullerton is 13-3 against ranked teams (two losses to Long Beach State and one to Arizona State). The Titans held Arizona State (which led the nation in runs per game and hitting) to a .224 batting average and nine total runs in the three-game super regional. All-American Dustin Pedroia went 0-for-13 against Titan pitching. Fullerton is one of just two teams (along with Arizona State) to rank among the top 20 in the nation in hitting, pitching and fielding. The Titans have allowed just 32 homers (and not one three-run homer or grand slam). Fullerton batters have been hit by 106 pitches, the fifth-highest single-season total in NCAA history.
As for the HR difference, that is now no longer as big of a deal as it was in the past. The outfield fences in omaha were heightened -- from 6’3” to 8’ -- and extended. The distance down the foul lines was increased from 332 feet to 335 feet, and the distance in the power alleys were increased from 360 to 375 feet. The straightaway distance from home plate to the center field wall remained 408 feet. Last year there were only 33 homers hit in the entire CWS – making Omaha more pitcher friendly – and if that is going to be the case – it only plays into fullerton’s hands. In addition, the weather forecast for Omaha on Friday is overcast. This means balls won’t go as far – and once again, that only helps fullerton and hurts lsu.
I think I do need to bring up a point I know someone else might. I am 100% aware of the fact lsu is “playing” for wally pontiff – their 3B from last season who died during the off-season. They have dedicated this season to him and you will see a “Pontiff/31” jersey in the dugout and mentioned quite frequently on the telecast. I am sorry Pontiff died – I truly am. But to think his death will lead an inferior team to victory is ludicrous. If lsu really needs Pontiff’s death to fire them up – they will get creamed anyway.
Taking a look at how these 2 have fared in Omaha – it is VERY one-sided – in fullerton’s favor and the same goes for when the 2 have met in regionals – all of them have been held @ lsu. Knowing what series history has been like – NO WAY am I about to go against what has been a truly one-sided series in the past for I think it stays just as one-sided Friday.
I do tip my hat to the linesmakers for doing their homework and seeing who is the better team, regardless of rankings. I really thought they would do something stupid like open lsu the fave, in which case it might have been the worst line in the history of the CWS!
$$$$$Cal State Fullerton -120 is my pick here (finally – I know)$$$$$
This will be my 2003 CWS GOY in a game I really don’t think will be close and in which the line should be about $.20 higher in fullerton’s favor (and might be come 1st pitch). I think Fullerton wins by at least 4 runs and probably more than that. I’ll say this ends up being a 6-2 final, but if Fullerton wins it something like 10-3 or even worse it won’t shock me at all. I really don’t see how this game will be close and I don’t know how lsu even stays in the ballgame for I see fullerton winning this one with relative ease.
I see Olympic has props up on this game. When they put prices next to them I might come back with a prop play (or two?) on this game.
Awesome Job Wink!!
2003 CWS GOY
Friday, June 13, 2003
(@ Olympic) Cal State Fullerton (-120) vs. LSU (+100) @ 4P (PDT) on ESPN2
Every so often the gambling gods smile down upon me and give me something I really want. When the top 8 national seeds for the CWS were announced on Memorial Day (May 26) and I saw that if both teams made Omaha they would meet in the first round, I got on my knees and hoped this match-up would come about knowing if it did what side I would be on – BIG TIME! Thankfully, it has.
For some unknown reason, LSU was GIVEN a 2-seed (they deserved something a lot lower) while Fullerton was given a 7-seed (they deserved a top 3 seed – at the very worst). Looking back on it – the reason is obvious – former LSU coach Skip Bertman is on the NCAA (or N*SEC*AA) Selection Committee and pulled some major league strings in getting his Tigers a seed they had no business getting – NONE!
How can I say that – simple – take a look at some power numbers on these 2 teams:
BA (for/against):
LSU: .318/.262
CSUF: .333/.247
SB (for/against)
LSU: 59-78/48-66
CSUF: 111-153/26-45 (as you can see – fullerton runs so much they were caught stealing almost as many times as teams tried to run on them
K (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 388/504
CSUF: 348/484
***lsu has played 66 games this season, fullerton 62 – so these 2 numbers average pretty much the same per game – so no big advantage here for either side).
BB (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 246/184
CSUF: 212/121
HBP (# of times they have/opponents have)
LSU: 50/53
CSUF: 106/50 (honest – not a misprint – fullerton gets a HBP almost 2 times a game)
HRs hit/allowed:
LSU: 82/48
CSUF: 34/32
***but it needs to be noted here fullerton plays in a pitcher’s park where balls literally die once they get into the air – so these numbers are greatly affected.***
Sacrifice Bunts (# of times they have/opponents have):
LSU: 23/29
CSUF: 44/30
***I will now say why I included this number. Lsu does not bunt very often and neither do their opponents. Fullerton bunts all the time. What this means is that at some time during the game, fullerton will sacrifice bunt. Because lsu is not used to fielding bunts, what will happen once a bunt is laid down is anyone’s guess. In past years when these 2 have played in Omaha, fullerton bunt’s have ended up all over the park because lsu is not used to playing “small ball.” I can see the same thing happening here and conversely, when lsu tries to bunt – something they rarely do – fullerton will know EXACTLY how to handle it and with lsu’s inexperience bunting the ball, something bad will happen for lsu and good for fullerton. This number also does not include bunts fullerton has beaten out for hits – which is a considerable number.***
Night game records:
LSU: 20-12
CSUF: 26-7
Numbers for the 2 probable starting pitchers:
LSU - Nate Bumstead
*************************
11-3, 3.97 ERA (almost 2 runs higher than his CSUF counterpart), 104.1 IP, 105 hits, 26 BB (WHIP of around 1.25), 8 HBP, 85K, 49 runs, 46 earned, 18 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, .263 opponents BA (highest of any of the LSU starters), SBA/ATT is (8-12)
***it also needs to be mentioned in his last 2 starts bumstead threw 121 pitches 5/31 vs. Tulane and then threw 124 6/6 vs. Baylor – meaning that arm might be a tad tired when he takes the mound and if that is the case – he and lsu are in deep trouble for pitches tend to hang a little more than usual, and while we aren’t a HR hitting team – leave the ball up in the zone and that could change – really fast!***
CSUF - Jason Windsor
**************************
10-2, 1.82 ERA, 84IP, 65 hits, 18 BB (meaning a WHIP of 1.00 – which, for college is unheard of), 5 HBP, 69K, 21 runs, 17 earned, 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR allowed, .213 Opponents BA (lowest of any of the starters), SBA/ATT (1-4)
***since I listed bumstead’s pitch count the last 2 games – might as well list windsor’s, too: 89 on 5/31 vs. USD and 93 on 6/6 vs. asu***
it also needs to be mentioned that in that asu, game, Windsor faced the nation’s top hitting and scoring team and held them to a season low 5 hits in 7 innings.
After fullerton beat asu to make Omaha, big west POY shane costa said this:
“On going to Omaha - "Most of us have been there before, but the first time we were just there to be there. This time we are going there to win and thinking about nothing but bringing home the trophy to Southern California."
I like the fact we have a team that is not happy to just be there and the reason I bring this up is I am hearing A LOT of talk from lsu about how happy they are to be there – and when I get a team that is happy to be there against a team that is there to win it – I am jumping on the team that wants to win it.
Now, I ask you, from looking at the numbers, who is the better team between LSU and CSUF? If you are like 99.99% of the people out there, you come to the rather easy conclusion it is Fullerton and not LSU.
Still not sure who is better, see what the polls say then:
Strength of Sked:
LSU: 112.2
CSUF: 112.1 (so they are basically even)
Non-Conf SoS:
LSU: 108.6 (32nd overall)
CSUF: 111.5 (12th overall)
RPI:
LSU: .633
CSUF: .632 (again – so close it is practically even)
ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings (a measure of team quality for NCAA Division I baseball)
LSU: 119.5 (10th overall)
CSUF: 126.1 (#1 in the nation)
Baseball America Ratings:
LSU: 5 (up from 8 the previous week)
CSUF: 2 (up from 3 the week before)
Collegiate BB:
LSU: 4 (up from 7)
CSUF: 2 (up from 5)
And here is a tad more to consider about fullerton:
Fullerton has the second-lowest ERA (2.75) in the country and no Titan pitcher has an ERA higher than 3.82. The Titans’ ERA in their six NCAA tournament games (including five against top-25 teams) is 2.21. Fullerton is 13-3 against ranked teams (two losses to Long Beach State and one to Arizona State). The Titans held Arizona State (which led the nation in runs per game and hitting) to a .224 batting average and nine total runs in the three-game super regional. All-American Dustin Pedroia went 0-for-13 against Titan pitching. Fullerton is one of just two teams (along with Arizona State) to rank among the top 20 in the nation in hitting, pitching and fielding. The Titans have allowed just 32 homers (and not one three-run homer or grand slam). Fullerton batters have been hit by 106 pitches, the fifth-highest single-season total in NCAA history.
As for the HR difference, that is now no longer as big of a deal as it was in the past. The outfield fences in omaha were heightened -- from 6’3” to 8’ -- and extended. The distance down the foul lines was increased from 332 feet to 335 feet, and the distance in the power alleys were increased from 360 to 375 feet. The straightaway distance from home plate to the center field wall remained 408 feet. Last year there were only 33 homers hit in the entire CWS – making Omaha more pitcher friendly – and if that is going to be the case – it only plays into fullerton’s hands. In addition, the weather forecast for Omaha on Friday is overcast. This means balls won’t go as far – and once again, that only helps fullerton and hurts lsu.
I think I do need to bring up a point I know someone else might. I am 100% aware of the fact lsu is “playing” for wally pontiff – their 3B from last season who died during the off-season. They have dedicated this season to him and you will see a “Pontiff/31” jersey in the dugout and mentioned quite frequently on the telecast. I am sorry Pontiff died – I truly am. But to think his death will lead an inferior team to victory is ludicrous. If lsu really needs Pontiff’s death to fire them up – they will get creamed anyway.
Taking a look at how these 2 have fared in Omaha – it is VERY one-sided – in fullerton’s favor and the same goes for when the 2 have met in regionals – all of them have been held @ lsu. Knowing what series history has been like – NO WAY am I about to go against what has been a truly one-sided series in the past for I think it stays just as one-sided Friday.
I do tip my hat to the linesmakers for doing their homework and seeing who is the better team, regardless of rankings. I really thought they would do something stupid like open lsu the fave, in which case it might have been the worst line in the history of the CWS!
$$$$$Cal State Fullerton -120 is my pick here (finally – I know)$$$$$
This will be my 2003 CWS GOY in a game I really don’t think will be close and in which the line should be about $.20 higher in fullerton’s favor (and might be come 1st pitch). I think Fullerton wins by at least 4 runs and probably more than that. I’ll say this ends up being a 6-2 final, but if Fullerton wins it something like 10-3 or even worse it won’t shock me at all. I really don’t see how this game will be close and I don’t know how lsu even stays in the ballgame for I see fullerton winning this one with relative ease.
I see Olympic has props up on this game. When they put prices next to them I might come back with a prop play (or two?) on this game.
