Lem Banker, a noted Las Vegas professional gambler, says betting baseball is like trying to cross the Sahara Desert.
Bookmakers tell you the same thing.
"Over the years it's been the toughest sport for bookmakers," said Fernando, chief linesmaker for Hollywood International in Costa Rica.
In Nevada, for instance, books might hold as high as eight-to-10 percent on pro football because of parlay cards, four-to-six percent on college football and four-to-five percent on NBA. Meanwhile, the average baseball hold is only about two percent.
It could be even lower for places dealing a 10-cent line and for those Internet books primarily catering to 'wise' guys.
"It's tough to do very well," said Scott, sports book manager for Bowman's International book in Mauritius. "If it's not one thing it's another.
"If the favorites win, the 'squares' beat you. And if the 'wise' guys get hot and you aren't doing enough 'square' business to overcome it that can be rough."
Sometimes the bookmaker is put in a no-win, frustrating situation. Recreational players are pounding the big-priced pitchers, while the 'wise' guys are sitting back looking for value.
"Balanced action is nice, but we like decisions as well," said Doug Castaneda, a sports book supervisor at the Stardust Hotel in Las Vegas. "If there weren't any 'wise' guys taking the 'dog, we'd be willing to gamble. We're perfectly fine letting people lay $1.90 all day long and rooting for the underdog.
"If you depend on balancing your action game after game all season long, you're not going to make as much profit if you had game decisions thrown in there."
Bookmakers can count on a normal mix of favorites and 'dogs covering in football and basketball. Not so in baseball, where a money line is used. There also isn't a salary cap in baseball to insure a level playing field.
"If you have regular 'square' business then you better knock out some favorites," said Hollywood International's Fernando. "The bottom line is you better have strong numbers."
When it comes to teams like the New York Yankees and dominant pitchers, no price is high enough to deter some recreational gamblers.
"It's not necessarily the 'wise' guy you're worried about in baseball," said Leo, a partner and oddsmaker for Players Super Book in Costa Rica. "The 'wise' guy might play more totals. But Joe Q. Public is a Yankees bettor every year. So when the Yankees reel off 10 in a row and the Braves win 30 of their last 35 while everybody rides them, it doesn't matter if you make it minus $3.25 or minus $3.50. They (the bettors) don't have to pay unless those teams lose."
And sometimes the 'sharps' are also on a favorite.
"When the favorites get on a roll, you just don't win," Bowman's Scott said.
Still, the bookmaker has enough edges with juice, parlay percentage and future book action to come out ahead in the long run if he knows what he's doing.
"You should win to it," Scott said. "I'm not crying because we don't win to it, but you don't have huge days like you can in football and sometimes in basketball."
People also love to play baseball futures. Unless you have a huge long shot winning the World Series, such as the '91 Minnesota Twins, it usually means a nice profit for the house.
"Baseball is the American past time, so people like to have a ticket on whatever region they're from," the Stardust's Castaneda said about future book wagers. "We get a lot of bets from the Midwest on the Cubs and Twins."
Baseball is more of a day-to-day grind for the bookmaker.
"At times it seems overwhelming," said Leo of Players Super Book. "You take your lumps. But the best teams in the league aren't going to win more than 110 games.
"You just hope your lines are big enough where there's at least a $2.00 favorite every game and things balance out."
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Bookmakers tell you the same thing.
"Over the years it's been the toughest sport for bookmakers," said Fernando, chief linesmaker for Hollywood International in Costa Rica.
In Nevada, for instance, books might hold as high as eight-to-10 percent on pro football because of parlay cards, four-to-six percent on college football and four-to-five percent on NBA. Meanwhile, the average baseball hold is only about two percent.
It could be even lower for places dealing a 10-cent line and for those Internet books primarily catering to 'wise' guys.
"It's tough to do very well," said Scott, sports book manager for Bowman's International book in Mauritius. "If it's not one thing it's another.
"If the favorites win, the 'squares' beat you. And if the 'wise' guys get hot and you aren't doing enough 'square' business to overcome it that can be rough."
Sometimes the bookmaker is put in a no-win, frustrating situation. Recreational players are pounding the big-priced pitchers, while the 'wise' guys are sitting back looking for value.
"Balanced action is nice, but we like decisions as well," said Doug Castaneda, a sports book supervisor at the Stardust Hotel in Las Vegas. "If there weren't any 'wise' guys taking the 'dog, we'd be willing to gamble. We're perfectly fine letting people lay $1.90 all day long and rooting for the underdog.
"If you depend on balancing your action game after game all season long, you're not going to make as much profit if you had game decisions thrown in there."
Bookmakers can count on a normal mix of favorites and 'dogs covering in football and basketball. Not so in baseball, where a money line is used. There also isn't a salary cap in baseball to insure a level playing field.
"If you have regular 'square' business then you better knock out some favorites," said Hollywood International's Fernando. "The bottom line is you better have strong numbers."
When it comes to teams like the New York Yankees and dominant pitchers, no price is high enough to deter some recreational gamblers.
"It's not necessarily the 'wise' guy you're worried about in baseball," said Leo, a partner and oddsmaker for Players Super Book in Costa Rica. "The 'wise' guy might play more totals. But Joe Q. Public is a Yankees bettor every year. So when the Yankees reel off 10 in a row and the Braves win 30 of their last 35 while everybody rides them, it doesn't matter if you make it minus $3.25 or minus $3.50. They (the bettors) don't have to pay unless those teams lose."
And sometimes the 'sharps' are also on a favorite.
"When the favorites get on a roll, you just don't win," Bowman's Scott said.
Still, the bookmaker has enough edges with juice, parlay percentage and future book action to come out ahead in the long run if he knows what he's doing.
"You should win to it," Scott said. "I'm not crying because we don't win to it, but you don't have huge days like you can in football and sometimes in basketball."
People also love to play baseball futures. Unless you have a huge long shot winning the World Series, such as the '91 Minnesota Twins, it usually means a nice profit for the house.
"Baseball is the American past time, so people like to have a ticket on whatever region they're from," the Stardust's Castaneda said about future book wagers. "We get a lot of bets from the Midwest on the Cubs and Twins."
Baseball is more of a day-to-day grind for the bookmaker.
"At times it seems overwhelming," said Leo of Players Super Book. "You take your lumps. But the best teams in the league aren't going to win more than 110 games.
"You just hope your lines are big enough where there's at least a $2.00 favorite every game and things balance out."
Story on Rx Homepage
