1/2 Run Move on Total

sonnybonolero · May 26, 2003

Some guy wants to come into me on every total on the board in baseball, move it a half a run, and lay 30 cents. Should I take it or is it a losing proposition???

THE SHRINK · May 26, 2003

Are you saying he is laying an additional 30 cents or 30 cents altogether?

If he is laying an additional 30 cents, then I would grab that in a New York second....

If he is laying only an addition 20 cents,. then it is a lot closer...

Moving a half run off of and onto even number totals is worth less than 15 cents...

Moving a half run off of and on to Odd number Totals is worth more, but less than 30 cents..

The most valuable numbers for buying 1/2 runs in Baseball are the 7's and 9's...

Hope this helps some.....

THE SHRINK

cecil+ · May 26, 2003

If he is betting the entire board, I would take it!

98% of bettors are going to lose, now this guy did come up with the idea, but still. I would give it a try.

sonnybonolero · May 26, 2003

Shrink,
He is laying only 30 cents on every total, what I'm trying to figure out is if this is a money making prop for me or not. He has to play every total on the board, every day to get the 1/2 run move. One guy told me it's "break even" work.

THE SHRINK · May 26, 2003

Sonny,

It all depends on what the EXACT Totals are for each day as to who has the advantage...

It's that close!

Do you have any history on the guy who suggested doing this with you?

Because if he is a Professional Gambler, I'd pass, but if he is not, then I would try it due to the reason given by Cecil...

THE SHRINK

Railbird · May 26, 2003

best # to middle in AL is 9, 7 in the NL.

cecil+ · May 26, 2003

I agree with the Shrink. Another thing I just thought of is that you are from Italy, and alot of books in Europe are way off the lines to begin with.

So, if you are booking off Don best, you would be fine I think. But if you are starting off lines that are way off to begin with you will lose. Hell, with the low margins at pinnacle your numbers better be right or he is probably going to scalp and middle you.
If you think the guy is a pro, I would pass...

JudgeWapner · May 26, 2003

I agree with Shrink.Would not take it for big action till you find out what the guy is about.

JudgeWapner · May 26, 2003

Plus if the guy is presenting the deal to you,there probably is a reason.Most squares don't think these things up.

raiders72001 · May 26, 2003

33 cents - 2*RL + 6 cents if moving onto or off an odd RL.

I found this at another site on the cost to move 1/2 run. According to this the odds are in your favor. As Judge and Shrink implied there's a reason why this guy is asking so I too would be careful.

JacksorBetter · May 26, 2003

As long as its not 9 or 7 you can get the half run for 20 cents at bet365, but limits won't last long if you win

buying half run on 9 is 35 cents and 40 cents from 8.5 to 9

docdekay · May 26, 2003

Its amazing to me how many people bet into totals without knowing their frequency distribution. Without knowing the value of each number, how can you determine how much it costs to buy onto or off of an '8', for example?

Do you know whats better?
U8 EV
U8.5 -125

This reminds me of years gone by when BM's didnt know the value '3' in foots.

I suggest that before entertaining any sort of propositions such as this you do your homework. The value of EVERY total (78910111213) are vastly different..

THE SHRINK · May 26, 2003

docdekay,

I would bet the U8 EV all day long before I'd bet U8.5-125...

In this case, the 1/2 run is worth less than 25 cents brother!

That's VERY Elementary my Dear Watson..

docdekay · May 26, 2003

Me too. But you'd be amazed how many people will pay 35-40c off a seven when its worth much less.

O7 -35
O7.5 EV

I'll take O7.5 EV here every day where as most would never want to lose by the hook. You're giving people here way too much credit.

raiders72001 · May 26, 2003

This 1/2 run stuff can get complicated. How far back to you look at stats. Do you look at 2002 to see what a 1/2 run is worth? Do you go back 3 years, 5 or 10? Do you take into consideration which team is favored? Also what about which ballpark the games being played in. It would really surprise some to learn that 8 or 10 can be the most important number under certain criteria. We know that normally it's odd numbers because you can't have a 4-4 tie or 5-5 tie.

SAFETANA · May 26, 2003

BASED ON 16500 GAMES:
. count for total=7
860 records
. count for total=8
2989 records
. count for total=9
6016 records
. count for total=10
4066 records
. count for total=11
1942 records
. count for total=12
334 records
. count for total=13
192 records
---------------------------------
NUMBER OF PUSHES
. count for total=7 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=7
104 records
. count for total=8 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=8
218 records
. count for total=9 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=9
642 records
. count for total=10 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=10
248 records
. count for total=11 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=11
162 records
. count for total=12 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=12
18 records
. count for total=13 .AND. PFOR+PAGST=13
20 records
.
Command Line ║<C:>║MLB

[This message was edited by SÅTAÑ ¤ on May 27, 2003 at 12:09 AM.]

trytrytry · May 26, 2003

just an idea but look at the lines 5 dimes has. They will have a line on the normal total and 1/2 run less. they are not in the business of losing so take a look at their juice and see if it matches what you might do. Study it for a few days to get a feel.

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