Ichiro has 25 games left, and he needs 32 more to set the record.
This year has been exceptional for him - he has 224 hits in 135 games. If you expect him to continue to hit that well, he has 41.5 "expected hits" in the rest of the season, if he doesn't get injured and isn't rested for a game. If you accept these assumptions, your prop has a 90% chance of winning using a 1-variable poisson distribution (mean of 41.5 vs. 32 needed).
Batting averages fluctuate wildly from year to year. In the last 3 years before this season, Ichiro has batted only .328 (doing worse with time). If Ichiro hits only .328 for the rest of the year, and he misses one game, that lowers his expected number of hits to 34.5., and your prop has about a 68% chance of winning.
Either way, -201 has value, and yes, one game (with 2 hits) can dramatically change the line. Of course, it can move violently the other way if he has a no-hitter game.
This year has been exceptional for him - he has 224 hits in 135 games. If you expect him to continue to hit that well, he has 41.5 "expected hits" in the rest of the season, if he doesn't get injured and isn't rested for a game. If you accept these assumptions, your prop has a 90% chance of winning using a 1-variable poisson distribution (mean of 41.5 vs. 32 needed).
Batting averages fluctuate wildly from year to year. In the last 3 years before this season, Ichiro has batted only .328 (doing worse with time). If Ichiro hits only .328 for the rest of the year, and he misses one game, that lowers his expected number of hits to 34.5., and your prop has about a 68% chance of winning.
Either way, -201 has value, and yes, one game (with 2 hits) can dramatically change the line. Of course, it can move violently the other way if he has a no-hitter game.
I made this same wager at Pinnacle after Ichiro went 5/5 and I got + 108. Ichiru is getting 1.66 hits per game played so if He continues to hit at that pace, He is on pace to hit 267.5 How I got + 108 on this right after He went 5/5 ? He is a big favorite barring injury
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by kermit:
I made this same wager at Pinnacle after Ichiro went 5/5 and I got + 108. Ichiru is getting 1.66 hits per game played so if He continues to hit at that pace, He is on pace to hit 267.5 How I got + 108 on this right after He went 5/5 ? He is a big favorite barring injury <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Precisely!
I made this same wager at Pinnacle after Ichiro went 5/5 and I got + 108. Ichiru is getting 1.66 hits per game played so if He continues to hit at that pace, He is on pace to hit 267.5 How I got + 108 on this right after He went 5/5 ? He is a big favorite barring injury <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Precisely!
Also another thing to consider, they guy almost never gets hurt. He's a workhorse. It's amazing due to all the stolen bases and running he does. I think he'll break that record easily with at least 6-7 games left in the season. He's always been one of my favorite players in all of baseball. A wizard with a bat.
