A lot depends on what the original number is, for example a half run at Coors or Wrigley with the wind blowing out is worth less than a half run in Dodger Stadium. I would questimate that a half run on average is worth between 30 and 35 cents. Some bookmakers will not come off a number, and move juice to extreme levels. Eg. 8.5 OV -165.
wil.
wil.
Thanks guys.......
I really appreciate the help.
Would this be accurate:
o/u 7.5 to 8.0 = .38 This would mean I would pay 38 cents for a half of a run and so on.......
8.0 to 8.5 = .41
8.5 to 9.0 = .35
9.0 to 9.5 = .38
9.5 to 10.0 = .33
10.0 to 10.5 = .35
10.5 to 11.0 = .33
I m not very good at explaining things on the computer....but what I m trying to find out exactly how much runs are worth at what totals.Please try and answer..Thanks PRJ
I really appreciate the help.
Would this be accurate:
o/u 7.5 to 8.0 = .38 This would mean I would pay 38 cents for a half of a run and so on.......
8.0 to 8.5 = .41
8.5 to 9.0 = .35
9.0 to 9.5 = .38
9.5 to 10.0 = .33
10.0 to 10.5 = .35
10.5 to 11.0 = .33
I m not very good at explaining things on the computer....but what I m trying to find out exactly how much runs are worth at what totals.Please try and answer..Thanks PRJ
chart that might help
Run frequency chart
<=5 runs = 9530 games = 21.5%.
6 runs = 2917 games = 6.5%.
7 runs = 4589 games = 10.4%.
8 runs = 3234 games =7.3%.
9 runs = 4297 games = 9.7%.
10 runs = 2949 games = 6.7%.
11 runs = 3565 games = 8.1%.
12 runs = 2234 games = 5.0%.
13 runs = 2613 games = 5.9%.
>=14 runs = 8322 games =18.8%.
"Right on" numbers I had were:
6 runline.--24 games--2 games--16%
7 runline--2580 games--275 games--10.6%
8 runline--5717 games--474 games--8.2%
9 runline--6298 games--622 games--9.9%
10 runline-4470 games--270 games--6%
11 runline-2084 games--179 games--8.6%
12 runline--459 games--20 games---4.3%
TOTALS: 21,632 games 1842 right on
Lined 6.5 Lands 6 - 7.7% Lands 7 - 8.9%
Lined 7.5 Lands 7 - 11.8% Lands 8 - 8%
Lined 8.5 Lands 8 - 8.1% Lands 9 - 10.6%
Lined 9.5 Lands 9 - 9.6% Lands 10 - 6.9%
Lined 10.5 Lands 10 - 7% Lands 11 - 9.8%
Lined 11.5 Lands 11 - 10.5% Lands 12 - 3.4%
Lined 12.5 Lands 12 - 6% Lands 13 - 6%
Run frequency chart
<=5 runs = 9530 games = 21.5%.
6 runs = 2917 games = 6.5%.
7 runs = 4589 games = 10.4%.
8 runs = 3234 games =7.3%.
9 runs = 4297 games = 9.7%.
10 runs = 2949 games = 6.7%.
11 runs = 3565 games = 8.1%.
12 runs = 2234 games = 5.0%.
13 runs = 2613 games = 5.9%.
>=14 runs = 8322 games =18.8%.
"Right on" numbers I had were:
6 runline.--24 games--2 games--16%
7 runline--2580 games--275 games--10.6%
8 runline--5717 games--474 games--8.2%
9 runline--6298 games--622 games--9.9%
10 runline-4470 games--270 games--6%
11 runline-2084 games--179 games--8.6%
12 runline--459 games--20 games---4.3%
TOTALS: 21,632 games 1842 right on
Lined 6.5 Lands 6 - 7.7% Lands 7 - 8.9%
Lined 7.5 Lands 7 - 11.8% Lands 8 - 8%
Lined 8.5 Lands 8 - 8.1% Lands 9 - 10.6%
Lined 9.5 Lands 9 - 9.6% Lands 10 - 6.9%
Lined 10.5 Lands 10 - 7% Lands 11 - 9.8%
Lined 11.5 Lands 11 - 10.5% Lands 12 - 3.4%
Lined 12.5 Lands 12 - 6% Lands 13 - 6%
Quick and dirty:
Buying on/off an odd number is worth 20-25 cents. 7 is worth the most, at least 25 cents, the higher the total the less the extra 1/2 is worth.
Buying on/off an even number is worth around 15 cents with lower totals a little more helpful to get the 1/2.
Example! (All lines no vig)
Over 7 -125/ Under 7 +125
Over 7.5 -100/Under 7.5 +100
Over 8 +115/Under 8 -115
All numbers rounded and off a few cents. But this will be close enough, provided you don't get into large vig numbers like -150s where you cannot just add extra vig adjustments.
Ps. I think the precise value on/off 7 is more like 27 cents.
Buying on/off an odd number is worth 20-25 cents. 7 is worth the most, at least 25 cents, the higher the total the less the extra 1/2 is worth.
Buying on/off an even number is worth around 15 cents with lower totals a little more helpful to get the 1/2.
Example! (All lines no vig)
Over 7 -125/ Under 7 +125
Over 7.5 -100/Under 7.5 +100
Over 8 +115/Under 8 -115
All numbers rounded and off a few cents. But this will be close enough, provided you don't get into large vig numbers like -150s where you cannot just add extra vig adjustments.
Ps. I think the precise value on/off 7 is more like 27 cents.
Awesome....this was exactly what I was looking to find out...
I guess like in Baskets 7 is a key number....
I ve read on here that OVERS are typically a square bet...but when it comes to Bases I have done ok this year betting mainly OVERS...I RARELY bet UNDERS especially not in the AL.....Is this a bad strategy over time????
Thanks for the info.....
PRJ
I guess like in Baskets 7 is a key number....
I ve read on here that OVERS are typically a square bet...but when it comes to Bases I have done ok this year betting mainly OVERS...I RARELY bet UNDERS especially not in the AL.....Is this a bad strategy over time????
Thanks for the info.....
PRJ
PRJ,
9's are really the true key number because 7's are not very common these days. Handling your choices around 9's is very important to doing well betting totals. 8 and 10 are also important, but less so due to the fact that odd numbers are much more likely to come in. Note the key isn't so much thinking about what the actual numbers are, but paying the right price for the right number working around the posted totals. As we all know you can work hard to get the best number and have it mean absolutely nothing 90% of the time, but that 5-10% of the time where the number becomes an issue it is important that you did the right things to maximize your returns.
And once again, remember that using "cents" isn't the best way to do it. To really raise your success, think in percentages. A 25 cent move around a -120 is a lot different than the same move around -180 and it purely has to do with the percentages things occur at when you deal with a moneyline. A 25 cent move -120 to -145 implies something having about 4.6% more likelihood of happening. A 25 move from -180 to -205 only implies a change of less than 3%.
9's are really the true key number because 7's are not very common these days. Handling your choices around 9's is very important to doing well betting totals. 8 and 10 are also important, but less so due to the fact that odd numbers are much more likely to come in. Note the key isn't so much thinking about what the actual numbers are, but paying the right price for the right number working around the posted totals. As we all know you can work hard to get the best number and have it mean absolutely nothing 90% of the time, but that 5-10% of the time where the number becomes an issue it is important that you did the right things to maximize your returns.
And once again, remember that using "cents" isn't the best way to do it. To really raise your success, think in percentages. A 25 cent move around a -120 is a lot different than the same move around -180 and it purely has to do with the percentages things occur at when you deal with a moneyline. A 25 cent move -120 to -145 implies something having about 4.6% more likelihood of happening. A 25 move from -180 to -205 only implies a change of less than 3%.
