Pinnacle best bets Day 2

LA ended up a "winner" last night.

So overall in terms of games they seemed to making stands on they were correct on two of them. Inocrrect on 3, and ended up being in line with 1 of them when all was said and done.

As mentioned in the other post this is not a scientific study, as they did beat the move on one side, but overcompensated for it more than the other places. Also the game they stood the most hard on was a "loser" for them, but they did move slightly off the opener early. But they stood firm when everyone went up, then beat the buy back move late in the afternoon. But were still 10-15 cents better on the fave side (which lost). So that game can be debated. If they truly took enough money to mve the line they cleaned up. If they were holding thel ine t get action they got hurt. But I find it hard to belive that people that Liked Sea in that game didn't bet them at -146, especially when everyone else had them at at least -155 if not -160. There was actually a simulatneous 4 cents at a couple places coupled with Pin, and they still didn't adjust.


Anyways on to today.

Cin/ST Lou

They moved a nickle down from the opener last night, while most opened right around the original opener. They currently are -163/155; most places are -170. There is a 162 at WWTS. But for the most part 170 is the norm.

Fla/Pitt

Another game involving Fla where they are borderline. They offer up 164 which is the best, but not overly generous as most places are ainted 170. Their dog number is also one of the best at +156. Actually among main stream books it is the best. So maybe they are waiting to see and move accoringly?

Az/LA They actually opened this number 6 cents less than the mainstream opener. 138 to 144 respectively. This number is currently all over the lace, running the gammet from -140 to -149, most are 145. Dog side is right in line at +130, as most places offer that number, along with a few +128s

Det/NYY This only bears mentioning as they opened last night NYY at -169, with the mainstream opener at -185. They have moved the line a couple times and are now right in line at -175. Which is the best number available, and almost every book has it. However, their dog price is very genrous at +167, most places are 160, with even a few 155s out there.. SO I have to thinkthat that original number did get crushed, and they actually want some Det money at this point.

Minn/KC Much like the SD number yesterday, they are holind their numbers a little longer, they have 11 on this one. So they get a -191/+180 spread. They are at least 9 cents better than everyone on the fave side, and right in line with the dog side. Which fits their line distribution.

Another note. They also opened SF 5 cents below the standard, but have since come up to a more mainstream number. They opened Sf -157, now sit at 160. But this number is all over theboard as well with a low of -157 at BetJamaica, and a high of 170 at SIA. The more manistreams are 160/163 range.

I don't expect nearly the action as there was yesterday, since it was a holiday weekend. But to day is a semi holiday I guess as some people have off. But baseball is(not)a "public" sport for the most part.

The mix of morning and late afternoon games may help as the early games will be over before the second wave hits might help. A waiting game (as usual).

Minn just took a nice move at Pin up to -199.

EDIT Ironically they DROPPED to -195 at Canbet almost at the same time they wnet up at Pin.

Now -206 at Pin

Also Money just hit TB at 3 different books, including Pin, on both games.

Want - nice work on your two writeups so far. I was curious, do you think it matters when the numbers are gathered? Sometimes they may favor a side, then later in the day need the other side. Im not sure what would be best, overnight numbers, a few hours before first pitch, or 30 min before first pitch, just would like your opinion.

I think your study is fascinating, and youre right - Pinn. seems to win more often then not.

Time?

I'd like to hear your opinion of When are they most strong\feared?

Eastern, Pick One (anyone with ideas.....)
10PM Night Before
6AM Day Of game
Noon Day Of Game
6PM Day Of Game

Actually I am trying to show that they don't win more then they lose.

It isn't scientific. I guess the only way to know is to open their books. And they do move lines all day. They go up and they go down. I am just trying to focus on the times that they were always offering the best numbers.

I used the Sea game yesterday as the prime example. They opened the number low, and when the others moved up they stood strong. THEN there was a move theother way, and Pin moved as well. While they had -151, most places were 160 and a few 165s. Then when those places went to 155 Pin went to 146, they even hit 143 for a few miutes. So it was like they wanted to be the best number on Sea. Like I say it could have been a massive steam on the winning side that hit every book, but with Pins numbers there was an obvious buy back, and with a lead you could have gotten 14 cents on that game, and 14 cents is huge, and anyone would take that buy back.

This is basically a generic test to see qhat Oin Does. I know what they do since I track these numbers quite a bit, and when I am not on the computer I go back and check histories and time stamps.

That is why I have never been convinced that Pin was a savant when it came to their lines.

Plus I am only doing the ones that are obvious, there are a couple that have been 3 cents or so, where they stayed 3 cents the btter all the time. Those might be the ones to watch. But to think that then it would really have to be a conspiracy theory premise.

If you had bet AGAINST Pin early yesterday, then gotten the buy backs later in the day you would have cleaned up. As mentioned the Sea/Cards game was 14 cents, the Bos/Atl game was 13 cents, Mon/Tor was 7 to 9 cents depending on how late you dared to wait, AZ was also a 7 cent if you waited.

These are scalps obviously, and not trying to "beat" Pinnnacle's numbers. But it is free money, and when you get scalps like that it doesn't matter if you beat them or not. It may have been the perfect day, or perfect timeing on my posting, but I admit that was the best day I have seen with the most action.

We will see after the All Star break. That is when people start getting geared up for NCAA football and the NFL, and bases action tails off a ot. BUT the lines are actually more volatile, and all over the place more than right now, so you can find a few more simulatneous nickles than you do now.

They are also now incing that NYY number back a little. Where they were -175 alnong with everyone else, they just went to -172. Others are still at 175, and a couple that were at -175 have actually gone to 180, Millenium actually went to -185. But Pins Det number is still one of the best, only a penny off the best.

Want ...

Did they finally get tired of your endless stream of horseshit elsewhere ?

Are we stuck with it now ?

What legendary lessons are we going to learn about the most solid overall offshore book on the planet ?



-K1

I was really waiting for this post. Surprised it took so long. Is it takedown two Kiss, are you going to hold him down so Molly can bite him? You must have been on vacation...Best Wishes...OF

"we" I like that one.

That they aren't the sharpest book, like everyone thinks. And that all the talk of them being unbeatable are false.

Probably doesn't matter, but I am sure a few guys might be interested.

How come I never see you at a poker table downtown? You in Vegas now or back in SD? I am heading back to Cal in a couple days so if you want to get some poker money from me you gotta head downtown.

Want ...

Moved to Vegas April 1st, started working grave last Thursday at NYNY.

I won't be hassling you much on the forum ...

Too freakin tired to play the forum wars. I tried the new room at the Nugget. It's good to see a "class" downtown joint with a poker room.

See you at the Bash ?



-K1

Nugget is nice on the weekends. During the week it is the same faces. The No limit games are juicy everywhere these days.

I will be back in town by then (the bash), only been here a few weeks, not spending the time here I used to. Got other interests now.

But I still like free money.