Commodities question for WildBill, Phaedrus, or other trading gurus?

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There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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1. Why does the Soybean sell for significantly more than gold or paldrum?

2. Why is it sooooo incredibly volitile? -45 today, -17 yesterday, +18 the day before, etc ..
 

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No idea Lander, commodities have been a bit too crazy even for me. The prices tend to fluctuate on a myriad of reasons, weather and news obviously the big ones. As for the cost I am certain it is just because of the lot sizes they trade, as they aren't trading ounces of soybeans like they trade ounces of gold.
 

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I trade futures so I feel safe in shedding some light on this subject.
The 703 number you see for soybeans is the number of cents per bushel. And the 406 number you see for gold is the price per ounce. A soy contract contains 5000 bushels and a gold contract contains 100 ounces. It is difficult to say one is more expensive unless you also say how much of each you are talking about. A contract of soy is $35150 and a contact of gold is $40600.

As too why soy is more volatile the rough answer is that volatility has to do with how frequently the future prospects of the commodity change. Soy comes from 1 place on earth and gold from a few. Which also plays a part.
 

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Hey Lander,

I'll trade you 60 lbs. of soybeans for 60 lbs. of gold...pretty good deal because soybeans are a lot more than gold
icon_biggrin.gif


P.S. If you want to make some sure money in commodities just ask Hillary Clinton.
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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Thanks for the detailed write-up Monicus.
Much appreciated.

The one that intrigues me the most is the OJ commodity. Without doing any reseach, I'd guess that this must fluctuate the most based on the season.

Plus it's cheap, so you're not out too much like you would be with a catastrophic soybean market
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Which market do you recommend for the novice (ie me)?

Thanks.
 

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Lander- My best recommendation for you is to buy some prime IOWA Farmland and grow your own beans.

Expect to pay around 3500 an acre.

Get in now!!
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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Fish,
No farms for me. Next thing you know Dante will be tresspassing into my barn and trying to mount the sheep
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So you want to trade 15,000 lbs of OJ? OJ is thinly traded not much action there.

Here is a 3-month graph of Sep 04 OJ.
http://www.britefutures.com/BFCharts/BFChart.asp?contract=OJU04
It sounds like you want to trade them, buy low sell high? If so the site above will give you graphs of all the commodities so you can find one that fits for you. Next is to make sure it fits your bankroll. This site is the margin rates for commodity contracts from my brokers clearing firm. http://www.manfutures.com/resources/margins.asp#COMEX
For example FCOJ is OJ and the rate is $560 in other words you have to have a minimum of $560 in your account to buy or sell 1 OJ contract. Gold is $2025. In an earlier post I told you that one gold contract is $40K, but it only takes $2025 in your account to own a $40K contract of gold. That’s 20:1 leverage so be careful. Next is to remember that unlike stocks commodities have many different contract months. IBM has one price; Gold has many prices because there is July gold, Aug gold, Sept gold, and so on. They all have different prices and different times to expiration and volumes. Then check the contract multiplier so you know how many dollars you make/lose when the contract moves one point because it is different for every commodity. Those are the basics that you need to look into before leaping.
 

Cui servire est regnare
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I was a commodities broker for a period of time in 1996 and 1997, was a tough slog making ocld calls and all, but my clients cleaned up big in a corn ralley that year. Silliest thing too, makin gmoney off speculative market moves and weather changes, crop reports from brazil during our winter...

Basics of supply and demand drive the market.

I dealt with Options exclusively...there is more money to be made/lost in commodites than any sports or stock market!
 

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Beans in the teens...

At one time more millionaires were created by beans than any other commodity. Anytime there was an El Nino in the late 70s and 80s, beans went from $4.50 to $10 or more.
 

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