Any Baseball Linemakers out there.

Just for the hell of it, I made some numbers for tomorrow's NL games. Where did I go wrong?


51 CIN P WILSON -R +138
52 CUB M CLEMENT -R -148

53 FLA A BURNETT -R +113
54 PHI K MILLWOOD-R -123

55 PIT K BENSON -R +148
56 ATL P BYRD -R -158

57 MON PATTERSON -R +148
58 NYM J SEO -R -158

59 MIL V SANTOS -R +160
60 STL W WILLIAMS-R -170

61 HOU A PETTITTE-L -139
62 ARI B WEBB -R +129

63 COL S ESTES -L +151
64 LOS K ISHII -L -161

65 SDG J PEAVY -R -108
66 SFO K RUETER -L -102

Made a few adjustments. wil.

[This message was edited by wilheim on July 20, 2004 at 11:01 PM.]

Pretty good Will, you're only off by 2$ on each one according to Jim Feists Overnite lines,lol!

Really, 2 cents off, not sure if that is good or bad. The lines are pretty much cloned from several sources. Maybe I should have made a couple way off. I have no idea where Jim Fiest's lines are posted if it makes any differance.


wil.

Will its at www.JimFeist.com scroll on left side to overnite lines! Lines are usually posted after 6pm nightly!

Hey wilheim, how do you set odds if you don't have a lot of info on a pitcher? (e.g. a minor-league pitcher moving up, or a starter injured earlier with fewer than 30 ip)

A few odds I have are...

CHC -143
STL -160
COL -103

So tomorrow, I'll be playing Colorado. On the games I play, my team has done very well. After 120 plays this season, we have a 12% ROR at 95% confidence.

Daringly, sorry just now noticed your post. I have had some success with minor league call ups. First thing I do is find out where they have been pitching in minors, then check the overall record for season. I use USA Today for this, it has excellent minor league stats. Then I go backwards and check out box scores where the kid pitched and see what he has been doing lately. I go back maybe 5 starts, most of the time the guys has been pitching well or he would not have been called up. Once in a while a pitching desparate team is forced to call up a so-so pitcher from the minors, one that has no business in the bigs. Time consuming but worth the effort. If a kid has been getting tagged in the minors he figures to have worse problems in the majors. Another indicator is age, when you see a team bring up a 31 year old rookie there is a reason why it took him so long to make it to the show. Injuries are not as easy, naturally you have pre-injury form to look at, but generally I will take a pass or go against a guy coming off an injury, especially arm trouble. I like to use opponets batting average as a tool for evaluating a pitcher also, I break it down to vs. lefties and righties, then look at the hitters he is due to see that particular game. There are a lot of other little things that I find useful when capping a pitcher, road/home, runners in scoring position numbers, K's to walks, hits to innings pitched, even which part of the season it is. Some guys do well late others early etc.



BOL.wil.