Industry News and Reviews Tue, Jul 20, 2004
NFL chuck rule could boost totals
By Stephen Nover
One thing to keep an eye on this NFL season is how often officials call defensive pass interference penalties. They could happen a lot.
After watching how Patriots defensive backs mugged Colts receivers during the AFC championship game, and finding out passing yards were at their league-lowest since 1992, the NFL mandated its referees to enforce the so-called chuck rule. This means no intentional contact with a receiver after five yards.
This development hasn’t escaped the attention of oddsmakers.
“We know they (the NFL) want more scoring,” said Mike Seba, an NFL linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that sets the betting numbers for most of the hotels in Nevada.
The question is: Will bookmakers be shading NFL totals higher based on the expected emphasis of this rule?
Keep in mind the house sometimes shades totals, especially on TV games, a little on the high side knowing the public often prefers favorites and the over.
“Let’s say you have a game where you made the total 40,” Seba said. “I don’t think you’re going to say because of this rule, I’m going to jack it up to 42. You might add a point to the total depending on the teams playing.
“If you have two defensive oriented teams playing then you’re not going to raise it. But if you have say St. Louis playing Kansas City then you might have to bump it a little more than if you had Miami playing Baltimore.”
Two different thoughts about this already have emerged. One is scoring and passing yards definitely will rise. This is the view of ESPN’s John Clayton. He points out that when this chuck rule was instituted in 1994 passing yards went up an average of 26 more per game the following season, while scoring rose from 37.4 to 40.9 points per game.
The other viewpoint is enforcement of this rule will have little impact because teams are bringing in referees during training camp to prepare them for the regular season. The kinks and bugs will be worked out during preseason games. It will be similar to spring training when Major League Baseball wanted umpires to crack down on balks and have the same strike zone.
Teams like the Panthers, Dolphins and Jaguars could be hurt because they are run-oriented and have physical, bump-and-run type defensive backs in their secondary. Likewise, passing offenses like the Rams, Chiefs, Vikings and Colts should be helped.
It’s going to put even more of a premium on having sharp defensive coaches. Clayton believes there will be more blitz packages put in since few teams have talented enough cornerbacks who can shut down wide receivers in man coverage without being physical past five yards.
If a team doesn’t have the capability to effectively blitz, chances are they’ll have to go the other way and play ultra conservatively with a lot of Cover-2 type zone defenses, where they surrender the middle in order not to get beat deep.
NFL chuck rule could boost totals
By Stephen Nover
One thing to keep an eye on this NFL season is how often officials call defensive pass interference penalties. They could happen a lot.
After watching how Patriots defensive backs mugged Colts receivers during the AFC championship game, and finding out passing yards were at their league-lowest since 1992, the NFL mandated its referees to enforce the so-called chuck rule. This means no intentional contact with a receiver after five yards.
This development hasn’t escaped the attention of oddsmakers.
“We know they (the NFL) want more scoring,” said Mike Seba, an NFL linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that sets the betting numbers for most of the hotels in Nevada.
The question is: Will bookmakers be shading NFL totals higher based on the expected emphasis of this rule?
Keep in mind the house sometimes shades totals, especially on TV games, a little on the high side knowing the public often prefers favorites and the over.
“Let’s say you have a game where you made the total 40,” Seba said. “I don’t think you’re going to say because of this rule, I’m going to jack it up to 42. You might add a point to the total depending on the teams playing.
“If you have two defensive oriented teams playing then you’re not going to raise it. But if you have say St. Louis playing Kansas City then you might have to bump it a little more than if you had Miami playing Baltimore.”
Two different thoughts about this already have emerged. One is scoring and passing yards definitely will rise. This is the view of ESPN’s John Clayton. He points out that when this chuck rule was instituted in 1994 passing yards went up an average of 26 more per game the following season, while scoring rose from 37.4 to 40.9 points per game.
The other viewpoint is enforcement of this rule will have little impact because teams are bringing in referees during training camp to prepare them for the regular season. The kinks and bugs will be worked out during preseason games. It will be similar to spring training when Major League Baseball wanted umpires to crack down on balks and have the same strike zone.
Teams like the Panthers, Dolphins and Jaguars could be hurt because they are run-oriented and have physical, bump-and-run type defensive backs in their secondary. Likewise, passing offenses like the Rams, Chiefs, Vikings and Colts should be helped.
It’s going to put even more of a premium on having sharp defensive coaches. Clayton believes there will be more blitz packages put in since few teams have talented enough cornerbacks who can shut down wide receivers in man coverage without being physical past five yards.
If a team doesn’t have the capability to effectively blitz, chances are they’ll have to go the other way and play ultra conservatively with a lot of Cover-2 type zone defenses, where they surrender the middle in order not to get beat deep.
