My best advice 95% of you won't take for this football season!

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If you want to last the whole NFL season, and I assume a very high percentage won't last (meaning betting each and every weekend) you must establish an amount for each and every wager, and STICK TO IT! If its 50 bucks or 200, or higher , the cardinal rule must be followed no matter what...I talk to many posters on IM and its always the same thing, I hear them chasing or needing action, winning more than losing but not being 'up' (money wise)

Its best to be in the game all year long (atleast during football) than play sporadically trying to "win big"...and sitting on the sideline by Halloween (been there and done that!)

Make a plan , stick to it, and all wagers should be the same...its simple advice but its very good advice...often overlooked!
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Journey, what you are saying is just about impossible. It's human nature to chase.

here is an example for you... You are a 50-100 bettor, ok.. You bet 7 games at 1pm for 75 apiece and you go 1-6. Now you are down 420.. It's now 4 pm, and you say,what the hell, I will still bet 75 a game and you bet 5 more games and you go 0-5.. You are now down another 413 at 4 pm and are now down 833 for the Sunday.

Now tell me that anyone here is going to wanna bet 75 on the Sunday night game?? YEAH RIGHT!! WTF will 75 do for you? If you win, you are still down 760 for the day.. A win here will do you NOTHING at all. Even if you win the late game, you will still sleep bad. Isn't it human nature to put 500 on the night game, or even 300.. You're already in rock bottom at -833 before the game. NO WAY you are betting 75 again.. You just have to up your bet because you won't even watch the game for 75 bucks. 98.9% of bettors here will up their late bet for a little chase.

I am 10000% sure everyone here has been in this situation before. It's easy to say to keep your bets small at all times and NEVER chase, but it's easier said than done.. When you're down 833 for the day and you're a small bettor, NO WAY you are betting 75 on the late game. What good will this do you? That's why it's so tough to win at gambling.. People get compulsive and greedy and are not patient to recoup their money back slowly..
 

The world would be a whole lot better if everyone
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So you never press during a winning streak journeyman? Maybe I should follow your philosophy. I always press. Sometimes it works out, many times not.
 

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Money management is overrated.Bet your bankroll on one game your really like.If you win quit call it a successful season grab a couple whores or whatever and have a good time.If you loose you can still call the season a success because you can look at it like you just bought back time on your life you would have have lost sweating the games and getting pissed over missed field goals and spend the time with your family or whoever instead of in front of the tv and computer and throwing things at the wall.

Happy wagering
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I hate upping my bets when I am hot because first of all, this method is silly. It is so silly to think that just because you have won your last 6 straight that you are HOT and you will win your next one. One bet has NOTHING to do with the other..Just because you have been picking the right side has no bearing on your next game. This is so stupid.. You are betting on players. How do these guys know you are winning? If you had control over this bet like playing a sport for money, then that is different.

But why I hate upping my bet when I am winning is because there is nothing worse than going 8-1 for the day and you are up 1 dime by betting 100-150 a game, then betting the night game for 800 because you are 8-1 and you are hot, ONLY to lose the game and end up even for the day after going 8-2. Does this suck or what? I never get greedy. If i win at 150 a game, I am sticking to 150, maybe 200 or 250, but NO WAY am i going to put 4 times my normal bet because I am on a streak. It will hurt too much if i lose it..
 

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I have never had luck when I "press", NEVER! When I have won , its been slow methodical...I always expect a hot streak will be followed by a losing streak shortly...I just think its easier to stay in the game in the long run by playing every wager the same...

SG scenario, which is a very realistic one is the toughest to overcome, you go 1-9 and its hard to turn around and wager the same amount on the Sunday Night Game or the 4 O'Clock games ...mainly because you know you will have a poor day even if you win at that point... I have been there many times...but what are you suppose to do really? I guess it depends on your bankroll, but why play more than 1-2 % really? ....it makes no sense to press if you have been hot? If we all know the best cappers can't win more than 56%, how is pressing on a hot streak practical?
 

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Personally I am a unit guy, but am never afraid to press when winning, or when I really feel good about a game. Sometime you can come up with a little piece of information on a game that might have been overlooked by the linemaker (yes even during these high tech days), when that happens I love to take a good sized swipe, like 3 or even 4 units. Other times my line can be quite a bit different than the consensus line when this happens I like to press also. When losing I am quick to revert to minimum unit per game. Playing with house money is another circumstance (same as pressing when ahead)) that I like to bet heavier on.

wil.
 

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Crap, I bet my b***s off already on

1. MIA/ten under 42.5
2. DEN/kc over 42.5
3. Mia under 9 wins
4. Sea over 8.5 wins.
5. Atl -3 vs. 49ERS

Seriously, bad bettors would do best to bet the same on all games. ZERO!

Any bettor good enough to have won flat betting, is good enough to make more sizing their bets, throwing bigger bets down vs. softer lines/better situations.

Show me a flat bettor. I'll show you a guy that just isn't very good at this. Period. Simply too many great oppportunities every week where you are dealt pocket aces or even big slick and you need to get the money in the pot.
 

RPM

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that is terrible advice jman. it is impossible to get rich following your logic.
 
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if you disagree with JMAN dig up some old threads by Anthony Richas. If his 10,000 unit rock-solid $$$$ ez-ca$h play of the year lost, he would chase the second half with a 20,000 unit rock-solid $$$$ ez-ca$h half-time play of the year, lose that, then bet on another game with a 40,000 unit rock-solid $$$$ ez-ca$h play of the afternoon, lose that one, then for monday night if he was lucky he'd pull a 70,000 unit L-O-C-K $$$$ ez-ca$h money baby play of the millenium win out of his ass, or not, and go down 140,000 units. That's gotta hurt!
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
Crap, I bet my b***s off already on

1. MIA/ten under 42.5
2. DEN/kc over 42.5
3. Mia under 9 wins
4. Sea over 8.5 wins.
5. Atl -3 vs. 49ERS

Seriously, bad bettors would do best to bet the same on all games. ZERO!

Any bettor good enough to have won flat betting, is good enough to make more sizing their bets, throwing bigger bets down vs. softer lines/better situations.

Show me a flat bettor. I'll show you a guy that just isn't very good at this. Period. Simply too many great oppportunities every week where you are dealt pocket aces or even big slick and you need to get the money in the pot. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Agree 100% with this.

No question about it in my mind as far as I am concerned.

However, in no way should we dismiss what I think JMAN is really trying to say here.

If you you are changing your betting amounts with no specific stategy, you will land yourself in the poor house for sure.

Bad money management will be the cause of gamblers going broke more than anything else in this business.

Certainly do not believe flat betting is a CARDINAL rule like JMAN has stated.


One more thing........If a successful gambler has proven over a long length of time (as least 10 years) that they are consistant winners, I personally have no problem with whatever their particular money management system is, as long as it is not WAY overly absurd in some way of course.

Successful gamblers find their own niche that works best for them, and this may be different than their fellow professional gambler.

Arnold Palmers swing is much different than Tiger Woods swing, case in point.
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Hey Fish, I am talking in a general sense, of course some sharps will succeed with a different approach, but how many? A very very small percentage ...and there will be many who can win more than lose that will be down several thousand dollars because of chasing...I am surprised by some responses in this thread, Fezzik's post in partiular...I guess everyone should just follow him this fall...hopefully he will suggest what unit values to use on all his plays....

For the average player its good advice is all, I have seen too many guys picking more winners than losers broke by Halloween!
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Jmans advice is RIGHT ON for the average bettor. Chasing will crush you. You will become mentally ill, suicidal, helpless, and sick.
 

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youre better off entering the carib contest. flat bet 100 bucks all season do well make 2 grand. in the contest pay 250 bucks, hit 65% and walk away with 50k
 

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"Any bettor good enough to have won flat betting, is good enough to make more sizing their bets, throwing bigger bets down vs. softer lines/better situations.

Show me a flat bettor. I'll show you a guy that just isn't very good at this. Period. Simply too many great oppportunities every week where you are dealt pocket aces or even big slick and you need to get the money in the pot."


This might work in a perfect world. The thing I say to guys that size their bets is ... Why bet the small games at all? If you have 3 levels of games or more why bet the lowest level?

Basically sized bets were invented by touts to make more money. They give the low ones away for free then they up the price the more stars they give a game.

Bettors have just adopted this philosphy on their own, and run with it.

I can agree with it to some extent, but I know that over the long haul it will all even out. A guy that picks a cetrian percentage will always pick that certain percentage no matter how strongly they feel about a game. It is common sense. A 54% capper will still have a 54% opinion when it comes to "line values" as he would picking every game on the card.

Want to take a test? Do one of those pick cards ike they have in Vegas where you have to pick a team SU every week, without a spread. Then track your ATS win percentage. Most guys numbers will be right in line with each other. So if they hit 53% on the card, they more than likely will hit 53% ATS.

The only difference is that the guys making the most money are the guys betting the dogs on the ML, because that is the way they gain the advantage. a 53% capper at even -107 isn't going to make any money that is worth worrying abut sizing bets or not. But a guy hitting 53% with ML dogs will make significant money.

Basically sizing bets is a way for guys who can't hit 50% to say they make money because "only there small plays lose" but they win all their 10 star specials. Which gets back to my main point, if they only win their big bets why bet the small ones?
 

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wantit-

There is no question what you are saying abounds with accuracy and truths.

However, what Fezzik and I are pointing out is something that is very hard to translate to in a forum setting such as this.

There are numerous factors that can be brought to the table as to why just flat betting the same amount on a game is not always/usually the correct route to take for the astute gambler.

Like I mentioned above, both ways can be incorporated into a very successful money management system.

To downplay one or the other could never be justified in my opinion.

Just to many factors to consider in the grand scheme of things.
 

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Your absolutely right that all the wagers should be for the same amount but that amount should be a percentage of your total bankroll; ideally 3% or so in my opinion.
 

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Wasn't really downplaying it.

It is all in the way people look at things. Perception I guess.

The new guys that are reletively clueless, or know just enough to get themselves in trouble are the ones I am aiming at. I remember when I started gambling a long time ago, and I sort of got sucked into the whole speel. Afterall they were on TV and they seemed credible enough. (not the typical shut and scream approaches) So what they said seemed to make sense.

But after years of gambling and trying every conceivable approach possible I think flat betting is best. Of course some creative approaches have to be made. So it isn't exactly a pure flat betting system Just like the U.S doesn't have a pure democracy.

But for guys just starting out, flat betting is the only way for them to figure out if they have any shot of winning. I mean if they can't make money with a conservative moneymanagement set up, how are they going to make money with an aggressive one? Plus it is hard to figure out if you have talent or just got lucky by hitting a couple big plays. It isn't a sprint it is a marathon. So one day a guy might hit for a couple grand, then the next week he drops five.

Obviously the more experience the looser the criteria. That "gut feeling" or perceived "value" probably is better for a guy that has been doing it longer. But those guys are more successful anyways since they have survived long enough to gain that experience.

So it is all relative.

I do agree that what works for one won't work for all. If there was a fool proof blueprint whomever invented it would be a billionaire.

It is all about mentality, psychology, and personal experiences.

All I know is that when I bet opinionated plays and make enough bets and get good enugh odds I don't have to worry about one or two big play games to make or break me. I always know what I am going to make.

A guy could theoretically be on a 13-1 streak, and lose it all when he gets that invulnerable feeling and goes balls out on a "lock" game. And on the flip side a guy could start out with a big time loser and not get in the game at all, so he will never know what he might have done.

And as mentioned above guys that get buried, their whole mind set changes. Unless they have some experiences and know they will get through it. And that is the Catch-22 to have the experience you have to survive.

I know I am different because I don't even watch games for the most part. Because it generally doesn't matter. Handicapping fotball is actually pretty overrated. I used to cap like a mother, and have a games down perfect and still lose.

Volume is key. And if a guy is good enough he is just as well off betting every game on the board for a flat amount and look to go 50 to 52%. Which is doable, but as mentioned above, looking for SU dog winners is the key. So picking 52 to 53% on faves and hitting 50% on dog plays will be very productiove, and the volume is there.

Picking and chosing games simply puts a higher criteria on winning. If you bet 5000 games a year and can pick games consistantly, you have a much better chance of making more money (relatively speaking)than a guy who is equal in "talent" who plays maybe 1000 games a year. Of couorse the odds of LOSING are increased, but like I have said a million times, if you can pick winners consistantly enough then you always know youe expectations.

LAst analogy. it is like the guys on the road that do a consistant 45. they stay in their lane and go along, they see a guy go by them at 75 only to hit the light. The guy doing 45 catches them at the light. They cruis along together until the speed guy gets his hole again, then bam, another light, the 45 guy catches him again. But this time the speed guy is at the frint of the pack. Green light, he peels out, only to be stopped by a cop. Which ineviteably happens to guys that speed. Just ask guys who thought the Lkaers were a "lock" that was a pretty costly "ticket" I am sure.
 

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i think you have to look at it from the angle of playing offshore or playing with a local.. i try and flat bet about 80% of the time, the other 20% is for bumping them up.. if your with a local and settle up day is tuesday and your up $1000 going into MNF then most will bump their average play up and take a shot.. if your down a dime, some guys may set it out and not risk the dime to get out of the hole..

id tend to agree with Fezzik, in that their are times that you need to get your money in the pot. for me it was USC against Mich and LSU against OK..
 

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WIL: Playing with house money is another circumstance (same as pressing when ahead)) that I like to bet heavier on.

BAR: There is no such thing as 'house money'.

Repeat: There is no such thing as 'house money'.

One of the best lessons of many I learned from the great Chris Thomas (FISHHEAD knows who I'm talking about)

If I win a wager(s) and my account balance goes UP, then IT'S MY MONEY, and it should be treated with same care and respect as MY MONEY that I started the day/week/month with.

Two cents (of my money) from Clearwater
 

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