<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by oldmantime:
Blue-It sounds like the local is the Wise guy.
I see what lurker is saying . <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
he is not...trust me. i beat him like a drum in college basketball last year.
Blue-It sounds like the local is the Wise guy.
I see what lurker is saying . <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
he is not...trust me. i beat him like a drum in college basketball last year.
here's what this guy does - he gets the lines from a vegas web site at like 11:00 am. then he prints it out and carries it around with him as he does whatever it is he does all day. so, if you call in a bet at 6:00, he is looking at information that is 7 hours old.
my winning % in college hoops was off the charts betting into those numbers. for some reason, the baseball totals is not going very well at all. i think the sample size is not high enough yet so, i think i will keep hammering away until it turns.
my winning % in college hoops was off the charts betting into those numbers. for some reason, the baseball totals is not going very well at all. i think the sample size is not high enough yet so, i think i will keep hammering away until it turns.
Blue: What juice are you paying for the totals? I have a suggestion for you. Go to pinnacle and look at the totals. You can now buy off the totals up to 2 points. For example look at todays game between Col and Pitt.
The total is 9 over -106 under -104. If you look at the box and change it to 8.5 it now becomes over -132 under +118. If you change it to 9.5 it becomes under -130 over +116.
I think this may be able to help you determine the value of the "off" half point from your local.
Hope this helps
Hitman
The total is 9 over -106 under -104. If you look at the box and change it to 8.5 it now becomes over -132 under +118. If you change it to 9.5 it becomes under -130 over +116.
I think this may be able to help you determine the value of the "off" half point from your local.
Hope this helps
Hitman
Blue edwards:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>my winning % in college hoops was off the charts betting into those numbers. for some reason, the baseball totals is not going very well at all. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
To compare baseball totals and NCAA hoops is comparing apples and oranges.
The lines for college hoops are probably the most manipulated numbers in the industry these days. Even the big books must keep their guard up in this specific sport.
Now, the fact that your local got "hit like a drum" in college hoops, doesn't mean he might not have an opinion on baseball totals. Shit, it might be his thing.
But yes, by all means, you should keep on trying. 2-8 is simply not much of a sample size...
***SOUND ADVICE, HITMAN*** BTW... these buy/sell offers at Pinny... totally cool
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>my winning % in college hoops was off the charts betting into those numbers. for some reason, the baseball totals is not going very well at all. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
To compare baseball totals and NCAA hoops is comparing apples and oranges.
The lines for college hoops are probably the most manipulated numbers in the industry these days. Even the big books must keep their guard up in this specific sport.
Now, the fact that your local got "hit like a drum" in college hoops, doesn't mean he might not have an opinion on baseball totals. Shit, it might be his thing.
But yes, by all means, you should keep on trying. 2-8 is simply not much of a sample size...
***SOUND ADVICE, HITMAN*** BTW... these buy/sell offers at Pinny... totally cool
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
lurker, question for you:
i have a local that is consistently off by 1/2 run on the baseball totals. i have been betting every game like this that i see. i have been taking a beating (2-8 the last 10 bets). should i keep betting into these bad lines? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Blue price is very important. Having your own set of numbers for games is key to determine which games are off. Playing blind into totals that are off with your local is not a good thing in Bases (NFL & NBA is a different story) again you should always have your own set of numbers for any sport...and that's the bottom line. Opening numbers at times can be very sharp and as we all know late movements is usually action from a herd of bettors. Determining why the line is moving is also key. I don't play bases, but try to learn as much as I can before playing any sport and one thing I learned about Bases is that I'm better off staying away.
lurker, question for you:
i have a local that is consistently off by 1/2 run on the baseball totals. i have been betting every game like this that i see. i have been taking a beating (2-8 the last 10 bets). should i keep betting into these bad lines? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Blue price is very important. Having your own set of numbers for games is key to determine which games are off. Playing blind into totals that are off with your local is not a good thing in Bases (NFL & NBA is a different story) again you should always have your own set of numbers for any sport...and that's the bottom line. Opening numbers at times can be very sharp and as we all know late movements is usually action from a herd of bettors. Determining why the line is moving is also key. I don't play bases, but try to learn as much as I can before playing any sport and one thing I learned about Bases is that I'm better off staying away.
i understand there is a difference between college hoops and baseball totals but, if the whole world has the cubs under 7.5 -120 and the guy has 8...shouldn't you pound the under?
well, thats what i thought yesterday and it was going well...until kyle farnsworth and mike remlinger got in the game.
well, thats what i thought yesterday and it was going well...until kyle farnsworth and mike remlinger got in the game.
Take this eg.
Pinny=big book plenty of players
Local=usually small
pinny open bases total at 8.5ov10
by gametime they get action on the over moving the number 8.5ov40
local doesn't get as much action on that same total if any....you play the over 8.5ov10. Is that a good play? Number is off. Was Pinny opener off? Did a key player twist an ankle? Is the number really off? Action vs info. Betting blind will kill you.
Pinny=big book plenty of players
Local=usually small
pinny open bases total at 8.5ov10
by gametime they get action on the over moving the number 8.5ov40
local doesn't get as much action on that same total if any....you play the over 8.5ov10. Is that a good play? Number is off. Was Pinny opener off? Did a key player twist an ankle? Is the number really off? Action vs info. Betting blind will kill you.
Blue:
Betting on a game total just because it's off by half a point, would be like buying shirts that won't fit you just because they're on sale.
When it comes to sportsbetting, it's all about the right price and info. I agree with Moon88 and others here... you need to have an opinion on the game. If the ½ a point offered by your local is on favor of your opinion, then hit it. But to pound a line just because is half a point "off" is very risky.
Also, mind the juice that you're paying. When it comes to MLB is all about the JUICE.
Just my .02
Betting on a game total just because it's off by half a point, would be like buying shirts that won't fit you just because they're on sale.
When it comes to sportsbetting, it's all about the right price and info. I agree with Moon88 and others here... you need to have an opinion on the game. If the ½ a point offered by your local is on favor of your opinion, then hit it. But to pound a line just because is half a point "off" is very risky.
Also, mind the juice that you're paying. When it comes to MLB is all about the JUICE.
Just my .02
i am going under the assumption that the closing line is the most accurate line. that is the principal i used in betting college hoops.
unless there is a reason that this assumption is not valid in betting baseball totals, i will keep trying it.
it makes no sense that i go 2-8 betting into bad numbers. it has to be a fluke...i would have gone 8-2 betting into a terrible line if i had gone the other way. that just doesn't happen.
i hear what you guys are saying. but i think it has to turn. as far as what my opinion is on a bet...i try not to let that enter the equation. that only gets me into trouble.
unless there is a reason that this assumption is not valid in betting baseball totals, i will keep trying it.
it makes no sense that i go 2-8 betting into bad numbers. it has to be a fluke...i would have gone 8-2 betting into a terrible line if i had gone the other way. that just doesn't happen.
i hear what you guys are saying. but i think it has to turn. as far as what my opinion is on a bet...i try not to let that enter the equation. that only gets me into trouble.
Been around the block for many years and I am still learning as we all have to live and learn in this business. Gathering info and retaining it is key. I have learned a great deal in the last 5 years from many sharps and looking back at the 9 years prior to those 5 I can also say I learned a lot from my mistakes.
