Bettman will be fired before the NHL folds. The league will take its medicine, folding up the weakest franchises and the reduced "demand" for players will convince them to reopen, maybe with some luxury tax concessions. A hard cap isn't really needed because the players are already getting squeezed by so much foreign talent. All the owners need now is fewer teams and they will have the players screwed over anyways. After all why pay a player $7 million a year when you can get a Russian version of him for half a million? And if it ever did come to a replacement player strategy, the European leagues and the kids in the minors would quickly raise the level of the league to near the standard you see today. Hockey just isn't dictated by superstars as much as the players like to think it is...
