What % of games are decided by 1 run? I took both the White Sox & Braves yesterday giving up 1.5 runs....I did it for the + money...Seems like I always get burned with this or at least the majority of the time...guess I should stop doing this...what have your experiences been with this?
Sherman, This is a huge issue, which really should get more attention. Almost a full 30% of games(see cbs sportline expanded standings, 1 run games, all teams have played like 35-40 1 run games out of 130 so far this year).are decided by 1 run. Your negative impact (on favorites) is not quite this high because often your team loses by 1 run. Do not play the run line because any win you can get in gambling is a good win. For example, if you play 12 games and go 6-6, on run line favs you would go 4-8. You would lose 2 of the 6 winners! No sane bankroll can sustain this type of abuse.
I call this part of the topic the "dumpback". This is the money that dumps back into your account after a win. Let us use PHILLIES tonight as an example. Risk $110 tw $100 on PHILLY when it wins your dumpback is $210 to gamble with tommorow. Risk $110 tw $187 on the run line, if PHILLY wins by 2 your dumpback is $297. That is not really much more than just winning by 1. And if they do win by 1 you suffer as you are suffering now. This even uses a home fav where the payout is much greater than a road fav because the rd. fav is guaranteed 9 at bats. When betting I don't see much difference between $210 and $297, but anytime I have $0 (like on a run line loss) I am in trouble.
Lastly, In the eighties I could literally beat the hell out of bookies on baseball, they would only keep me because I suck at football and would stay with them. Anyway back then favs rarely got any higher than -170 (if it got real crazy they would take games off the board) Baseball was a game that could be whupped. This stayed true with the early offshores until about 1997 or 1998. They figured it out and now favs are as high as -380 and whatnot. at this point it got much tougher as a player would be lured into taking more losers for the big payoff. Run lines were introduced and after 15 years of being a solidly winning baseball player, I had a couple of horrible years. I figured out what they were doing to me and quit playing run lines about 4 years ago, and I have had good success again since then.
Thepig knows there is alot here and I didn't mean to ramble, but I feel that I am very knowledgeable on this topic, and will share my experiences when asked. Godspeed, thepig.
I call this part of the topic the "dumpback". This is the money that dumps back into your account after a win. Let us use PHILLIES tonight as an example. Risk $110 tw $100 on PHILLY when it wins your dumpback is $210 to gamble with tommorow. Risk $110 tw $187 on the run line, if PHILLY wins by 2 your dumpback is $297. That is not really much more than just winning by 1. And if they do win by 1 you suffer as you are suffering now. This even uses a home fav where the payout is much greater than a road fav because the rd. fav is guaranteed 9 at bats. When betting I don't see much difference between $210 and $297, but anytime I have $0 (like on a run line loss) I am in trouble.
Lastly, In the eighties I could literally beat the hell out of bookies on baseball, they would only keep me because I suck at football and would stay with them. Anyway back then favs rarely got any higher than -170 (if it got real crazy they would take games off the board) Baseball was a game that could be whupped. This stayed true with the early offshores until about 1997 or 1998. They figured it out and now favs are as high as -380 and whatnot. at this point it got much tougher as a player would be lured into taking more losers for the big payoff. Run lines were introduced and after 15 years of being a solidly winning baseball player, I had a couple of horrible years. I figured out what they were doing to me and quit playing run lines about 4 years ago, and I have had good success again since then.
Thepig knows there is alot here and I didn't mean to ramble, but I feel that I am very knowledgeable on this topic, and will share my experiences when asked. Godspeed, thepig.
