As nothing major has happened to personal in the off-season it is likely both teams will play the same sort of Football. With this in mind, the following is what I posted for the play-off game.
Posted play-off plays 3-0
Posted Reg Season plays 6-0-1
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
First of all I would like to point out the worth of reading other Forums where talk is not about betting but on how The Teams are playing from a fan point of view. This gives you an insight into how fans think their Team is doing, sometimes with surprising results. With this in mind, I got the impression, reading between the lines that Denver fans thought they were living on borrowed time with the injuries to their Defense. The win over The Colts only camouflaged the illusion. The Colts offense played a game that happens to every Team during the season, where they play flat for no apparent reason. When these games show up I totally ignore them from a valuating standpoint. The Colts- Patriot game was another one of these games, only this time my view is that too many things happened that would probably not happen again for me to make firm opinions on either Team. Both Teams scored points over my stats to a figure that The Colts haven’t achieved all season and The Patriots only once. Because of this I have not taken either game into account in my reasoning for this game
So, bearing in mind what I said about Denver, The Colts last two games have been against two desperate Defenses. Prior to that, The Colts last Three road games have bagged 20pts @ Houston, 29pts @ Tennessee ( 4 T/Os worth 9 pts) 17pts @ Buffalo. They now take on a New England Defense which ignoring The Colts game has kept Teams to under 20pts in their last 6 games, 14pts at home. With playing on grass and 0 degrees, I think The Colts will need turnovers to better 14-17pts in this game.
The Colts Defense has been OK against average Offenses this year but average to below average against the better Teams. This is a Defense that has leaked more points than my stats would indicate most of the season but recently have dipped even below that. The problem is injuries, especially the secondary, where 5 of 8 are in the wars. Bashir will not play, leaving Strickland, Doss and Bird, all injured, to sort out the safety positions. Harris, who is carrying an injury will play one corner, the other corner will be Macklin (OK) and Harper who is also not in shape to play a whole game. Add a banged up Morris, Mathis and Freeney, who seems to be spent for the year and you have a dire situation.
The Patriots Offense seems to be the sort that Brian Billick would be proud of, doing enough to win games. From my stats, they have played below average most of the season and I was looking forward to taking them on in the play-offs. Although I covered the spread in the Titans game, New England still found a way to win even playing statistically a rock bottom game, something they have done a couple of times this year. As if by fate they now get a desperate Colts Defense , which shouldn’t give them problems in any department. 24pts looks a conservative total under the circumstances and the coaches may even open things up in a bid to make The Colts one- dimensional. The Colts will need turnovers in this game to win, something given the Colts Defense, is not likely to happen.
New England -3
The obvious difference that people will pick up on this year is the enforcement of the 5 yd rule and the injuries the colts had on defence, both which will favour the colts.
My own thinking is that it was common knowledge that the umpires were less critical in the post season and The Pats wouldnt play as phyical in this game anyways. The defence is experienced enough to adapt to the new outlook.
With The colts having limited sucess, The Pats will play their usual conservative game and I am looking more to the under as the most likely outcome.
