Intermediate Gambling 101

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little bored this afternoon on my day off as I scour for the best available Run Line on the Xpos going off this afternoon.....

I am looking to play 1 Unit (100$) on the xpos Run Line... & of course, As I learned in Basic Gambling 101 ***SHOPPING FOR THE BEST AVAILABLE LINE, IS VITAL TO MY SUCCESS***

The worst Line I find at Book A is:

Xpos + 1.5 +105
Fla -1.5 -115

The Best Line I find at Book B is:

Xpos + 1.5 +120
Fla -1.5 -140

Of course I realize this is obvious to many pro's, & many will simply take the better line & go on from there...

Some, however will maximize the situation as follows:

BET with Book A: 575/500 at Book A on FLORIDA
BET with Book B: 600/720 at Book B on MONTREAL

If Montreal Fails to cover the Run Line... You lose 100$, like you had initially intended.

IF However, Montreal covers... as you expected since you capped the game anyway... you win 145$.

MORAL OF THE STORY:

you have just got the Xpos + 1.5 + 145 when the best shop in the world only had + 120, you have greatly increased & maximized your chances of staying in this business in the long term...

this resource tip works great for 100-150$ players...

High rollers, less as most shops have betting limits... but heck... its free Money.
______________________________________________

PLEASE ADD YOUR 'INTERMEDIATE BETTING TIPS BELLOW'

THANKS
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That is the ONLY time betting the +1.5 RL makes sense. It is the same as a nickle scalp for the most part. You could in fact adjust the numbers a little and make money no matter what. But you are basically trying to maximize a win versus a base unit loss.

I will sometimes do that when I take a lead and get a HUGE line move, even when the scalp is better than average, sometimes it is best to gamble a little and limit the buy back to equal a base unit sized bet.

Especially if you like the side you have the nice number on, and it has been crushed one way. While it is still gambling, you can at least insure your original bet with a buy back on an inflated number the other way.
 

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wantitall?

do the mathematics in general dictate that taking the 1.5 runs in MLB is a losing proposition?

what about laying 1.5?

would love to hear more on this...
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I don't know all the ins and outs in themath department, but then again that is still all theory.

All I know is that when you play a +1.5 RL you are only getting a positive result in a single solitary instance, that is if the dog loses by exactly one run. That occurs at varying degrees, but on average the dog will lose by one run about 15% of the time overall. On the road it is about 18% of the time, and at home it is about 12% of the time.

When you are losing the price you are by betting the +1.5, I am pretty sure that over enough bets the times you play the dog ML will outwieght the times they lose by one run.

Use the game you bet as an example. Motreal is +220 on the ML, and +104 +1.5 at Pin. You found +120. So even with line shopping do it out. If the dog has an 18% chance of losing that game by 1 run, that is 18 games out of 100 you would gain a win over a loss. Not sure of the average win rate of +200 dogs on the road, but it has to be 38% maybe more. So that would give us results of 38 wins and 62 losses. Of the 62 losses 18 would be by one run. So we would go from 38 wins to 56 wins. But look at the odds, 38 * 2.2 would garner 83.6. 56 * 1.2 would be 67.2. on the +1.5 RL. Even if you think 38 is too many wins, when you drop it to 30% It is still more profitable. 30* 2.2 = 66. 48 * 1.2 = 57.6.

Basically you can't get to a spot where it will be as profittable at those odds and those expected results.

The math might not be right above since I did it pretty quickly, and it is still theoretical in nature. But to me when you are getting nearly twice as much for a SU win versus a one run lss, I will take my chances with the 2-1 payoff edge.
 
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Sorry I disagree. I believe there is value taking the +1.5 in some instances. I understand your 15% assessment, but you have to factor in a few other variables. A one run game is more likely in a low scoring game. When a total is 7 or so it is very likely to see a 4-3, 3-2, 5-4 type of game. In Colorado, Wrigley, Texas one run games are less likely.

I think your percentages and other numbers are very solid, but you have to consider the intangibles. I also agree that the game in question is a bad runline. No value there.

Finally, books offer the -1.5 for the squares in my opinion. Every square thinks so and so is going to KILL the other team. Might as well get paid extra. Very few play the +1.5. Look at the cappers on this board. Almost always -1.5. The books wouldn't offer it if it cost them money.

Great topic, and great discussion. Hope to see some other opinions on the subject.

tn
 

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