Suzuki 257 hits or less +170

John_Kerry · Sep 14, 2004

Suzuki has 231 hits right now with 19 games left. Even as hot as he is been he is a little behind pace to break the record.

I bet it at WOS that he wont break the record at +170. Ties win on the WONT break the record play. There is no way that the will break the record at -240 has any value at all. Even if he does break the record it isnt worth -240.

It is a 50/50 bet at best, so taking the +170 is very good +EV.

Buffalo66 · Sep 14, 2004

He actually is still on pace to break it. However, there is no guarantee he will keep that torrid pace, and the +170 is a better bet than the -240 in my opinion.

John_Kerry · Sep 14, 2004

You're right.

I just redid the math and he is on pace for 261 hits. Don't know what I did wrong the first time when I came up with 256 hits. Still think laying -240 here is crazy. No way he has over 70% chance of getting to 258 hits.

BROMOx · Sep 14, 2004

He is killing me. I put $700 down on him a week or so ago to get to 257 at -165. Since then it jumped to -295 and was then taken down at Pinnacle.

What has he done since then? He has gone 4 out of 22 (including the 0-2 tonight). This was a sure thing 6 games ago.

Hopefully he'll tie the record and we can both win. My bet is over 256.5

billcollector · Sep 14, 2004

can we find out what pitchers he'll be facing??

John_Kerry · Sep 14, 2004

1 for 4 tonight.

I was hoping he would put up an 0 for , but 1 hit a night won't get him there so I guess I have to be pleased.

billcollector,

Every game they have left is against a team that is still in the race

Oakland
Texas
Boston
Anaheim

They dont play any under .500 teams so hopefully he will be facing schilling, pedro, zito, lackey, etc.

I think his chances of getting to 258 are 50/50 or less, so I am happy with the +170 even if it doesnt cash I know its a good play.

BROMOx · Sep 14, 2004

He needs 25 more hits in the next 18 games, although he is on pace.

Let's see. Assuming an average of 4.275 at-bats per game (not counting walks) for 18 games, he needs to bat .325 over that time frame.

He's batting .370 now, but that is still a good run he needs.

Wishing I could sell my ticket at the moment.

-----------------------------

Wager Type: Future/Prop
Wager Status: Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: 700.49 / 424.54 (USD)
Date Accepted: 6-September-2004
Time Accepted: 4:16:25 PM (Pacific)
Description: Baseball Propositions
Total Regular season hits Ichiro Suzuki
Will Ichiro Suzuki have over 256½ hits?
Yes -165

wilheim · Sep 17, 2004

SEATTLE (AP) - Ichiro Suzuki broke the major league single-season record with his 199th single in the seventh inning of the Seattle Mariners' game against the Oakland Athletics on Friday night.

With a hit in the seventh inning for his second single of the game, Suzuki bettered the mark of 198 singles set by Lloyd Waner of Pittsburgh in 1927.
Suzuki's two hits gave him 235 for the season, 22 shy of the major league single-season record set by George Sisler of the St. Louis Browns in 1920.

The Mariners have 15 games left after Friday night.

John_Kerry · Sep 19, 2004

I could have bought back and locked in a profit this morning when it was at +100 on the other side, but I didn't.

The +170 is a good value regardless of what happens.

2 times up and 0 hits so far today. Just hope he doesnt put together any more 5 for 5 's