NL wildcard - Giants +372 ?

BROMOx · Sep 22, 2004

I was suprised to see the Giants today at Pinnacle +372 and holding a half game lead in the wildcard race with only 11 games left.

Is this value? Or should I be looking at the Dodgers? Will they get caught by SF (1.5 games back)? They are posted at +497.

Seems to me that I have to throw a few bucks at SF, even though I'm rooting for the Cubs (-180).

BROMOx · Sep 22, 2004

The more I look at this, the more it looks like a pure sucker bet for those taking the Giants (and I'll bet a lot do!).

SF has 6 games left with LA. If they win at least 4 of them, they'll probably take the division instead. If they lose 4 of them, the Cubs will catch them for the wildcard. Even if they split the games, those three losses will probably let the Cubs in the door - considering the Cubs easy schedule.

SF plays HOU (2) LA (6) and SD (3)
LA plays SD (2) SF (6) and COL (4)

CUBS play PIT (2) NYM (3) CIN (4) and ATL (3)

I've decided to lay some on the Cubs -180 instead. Wihs I had taken them at plus money a few weeks ago.

Fishhead · Sep 22, 2004

My feelings exactly Bromo.

ChuckSims · Sep 22, 2004

A sucker bet. Pinnacle is no dummy. Its tempting though!!

D2bets · Sep 22, 2004

Yeah, you guys noticed the issue here. The Giants could easily take the division if they play well and beat LA. And if they don't play well they'll probably miss altogether. Same for LA. They will beat up on each other such that it's tough for them to BOTH make it, which is the only way the Giants (or Dodgers) can get the WC. The best chance for them both to make it is to split their 6 games 3-3 and hope the Cubs play sub-.500 ball. If one of those teams wins 5 or 6 of those games then that team wins the division and the other goes home. It'd be tough to bet on SF, of course root for them to win, but then again if they win too damn much they'll win the division and "lose" the wildcard.

And as I speak it's now -217 Cubs, +395 SF and +745 Houston.

Those are sharp odds at Pinny. Much as I hate to say it, Houston might be the best "value" of that bunch, although they had better win at least 1 of their next 2 games vs. SF or they are toast.

-217 is not a sharp play though. Much better to pick off some of the better Cubs NL and Cubs WS odds still available out there (12-1 looks WA). Because if the Cubs do make it, those odds will PLUMMET from 12-1 to 5-1 or less.

blueedwards · Sep 22, 2004

i have the dodgers @ 20:1. looks a lot better now than august when i made the play. the cubs have their destiny in their hands but, if they faulter and the giants keep winning...$$$

D2bets · Sep 22, 2004

BTW, if the Cubs do make the playoffs, expect to see NL odds something like the following (at a shop like Pinny with reasonable numbers):

Cards +160

Cubs +180

Braves +400

Dodgers/Giants +420

Cubs -165 over Braves

Cards -180 over Giants/Dodgers

REDEYE · Sep 22, 2004

I don't see the Giants getting in as a wild card. Dodgers are sinking fast. Padres could sneak in if Dodgers and Giants split and Padres take care of business against ARIZONA

kermit16 · Sep 23, 2004

It looks like the Dodger lead will be down to 1/2 game over Giants. Cubs will probably win the wild card and I believe the Giants will edge out the Dodgers.

jwunderdog · Sep 23, 2004

I took the giants at +1200 to win the NL , because I couldn't find a prop for them to just make the playoffs. I think your odds are a little low at +450 for them to win the NL, My guess is it will be closer to 600.

bucsfan67 · Sep 23, 2004

usually you would expect that the wild card team is the underdog, and obviously they werent good enough to win their division, so they arent the biggest threat to win the pennant....however, you better believe that the 3 division winners are hoping they DON'T see the Cubs get in this year....

I think everyone realizes that the cub rotation is built for the postseason, and no one wants to go into a series facing Wood, Prior, and Zambrano, with Clement and Maddux just waiting in the wings if anyone falters....

I know wild card teams have made it before, and obviously a couple have won the WS.....but as a rule, they won't be the most feared team out there, but in this case they just might be....

St Louis is very strong this year, but they have avoided injuries all season, and many hitters are having "great" seasons.....just a small slump by a couple of them can hamper the Cards.....And Marquis, Morris, and Williams, are not as strong of a matchup for the cub rotation, albeit they are a good trio....

And obviously Atlanta doesnt have the Great trio they usually have for the playoffs, and they couldnt get there with them......

Giants rotation weak after you get by Schmidt....

And without Penny, the dodgers rotation is not that strong either....

If the Cubs get in, it could be a fun playoff ride again.....

Steve Bartman better not be seen within 6 blocks of WRigley....:breakit:

D2bets · Sep 23, 2004

Bucs, simply doesn't matter how you get in. It's a new ballgame If the Cubs make it, I expect to them be virtually co-faves with the Cards in the NL. Both at +200 or less. And then ATL and SF/LA will both be over +400. Right now the Cubs wildcard fair value is at least -200. If the Cubs win today, make that -250. Then they could potentitally go 5-5 in the final 10 and still probably make it. The Cubs couldn't have drawn this final schedule any better, both for themselves and more importantly for their competition. Giants and Dodgers practically tied and playing 6 is a godsend. Cubs would just like one of them to destroy the other and clear the path. And we want the Giants to pummel the Astros into oblivion one more time tonight.

blueedwards · Sep 23, 2004

i need 3 mores losses...getting a little nervous.

D2bets · Sep 23, 2004

Blue, yeah but 2 losses (94 wins) would get you a push, right? So you can only actually lose if the Cubs go 10-1 or 11-0. I am a Cubs fan and I believe they will win the wildcard and yet...well, I'd love to take your bet off your hands. Highly unlikely the Cubs go 10-1. Actually, as it stands now and the way the schedule plays out, 9-2 would clinch the wildcard for the Cubs regardless of what the other teams do.

Just be glad you don't have U92.5, then you definitely would have something to worry about.

blueedwards · Sep 23, 2004

i didn't hang this long to push. i just heard that danny graves is out for the year. the reds figured to be the team that could give them trouble as the mets have completely mailed it in.

i don't see the braves giving them a fight in the final series as they will likely be resting starters.

it'll be interesting

ChuckSims · Sep 23, 2004

The Cards and the Braves are to be feared. Yes the Braves. Forget the Cubs. Prior is not the same pitcher as last year, so quit dreaming.

blueedwards · Sep 23, 2004

chuck, we said the same thing last year and it almost bit us in the ass. i fear the cubs. yes, the stinking cubs. i need them to lose 3 more games and if they don't do it, i may jump off a bridge. or maybe i'll just stand under the bleachers and wait for a chunk of concrete to hit me in the head.

VaultedTreehouse · Sep 23, 2004

Count me as one of the suckers. I got +390 at pINNY on SF, then I realized I need a shitload of things to happen to win this. Oh well.

jwunderdog · Sep 23, 2004

Vaulted I almost did the same thing until I realized how close they were to the dodgers and Now you have Penny and Lima hurt.Don't want to make it worse but you can play SF +200 to win the division I think at WWTS or Jazz.

REDEYE · Sep 24, 2004

Chuck,The Braves don't scare anyone at all. Prior and Wood might be rounding into form just in time

NL wildcard - Giants +372 ?

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