Hou / SF ** EASY OVER **

dottom

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• Sep 23, 2004

• #1

Everyone seeing Schmidt (or other premium pitcher) and thinks low totals, but I'm telling you like I have before that something isn't right with Schmidt since that groin injury. His velocity is there but control is not and he leaves pitchers over the plate. Houston has good enough offense to take advantage.

Schmidt has given up 25 ER L5 starts (with a start vs. lowly Ari keeping this # even lower) since coming back from groin injury.

Add to that... wind in SF is blowing out to center 14-mph!! OVER is 11-6 in this spot.

Add to that... Mike Reilly is an OVER umpire! 17-14 O/U but averge is 10.84 rpg!! Not only that he is ranked #9 out of 83 in worst BB/K ratio (i.e. favorable to hitters). His BB/K ratio is 0.617 with average of 0.518.

Over boys... :breakit:

 

Journeyman

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• Sep 23, 2004

• #2

I TOTALLY AGREE..I WAS GOING TO POST A THREAD ON THIS...BUTR YOU ALREADY DID...GOOD LUCK...This is Houston's last shot, must win...I will play Hou + and over!

 

Journeyman

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• #3

198655 9/23/2004
7:15 PM [965] HOU ASTROS +215 $300/$645 Action 5813109
198655 9/23/2004
7:15 PM [965] HOU ASTROS o8-115 $345/$300 J SCHMIDT -R /
B BACKE -R 5813110

 

BaseballGuy

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• Sep 24, 2004

• #4

Easy over huh??

Fuking NL teams.. They just give up.

 

Journeyman

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• Sep 24, 2004

• #5

Baseball Guy...you may wanna wait til the games over to gripe next time...Thanks

 

dottom

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Yes, Easy indeed.

BaseballGuy said:

Easy over huh??

Fuking NL teams.. They just give up.

Click to expand...

I had it O7.5 and O8. Easy indeed.

Did you see Berkman's HR? It was a lazy fly ball that Tucker had camped under 15 feet from the wall and it travelled an extra 30-feet. Told ya the wind was blowing out!

Shouldn't have taken 9 innings though. Lots of opportunities to make it a 3-3 or 4-4 tie early. Lots of men stranded in scoring position. Nonetheless, it's a 9-inning game and the wind came through.

 

Dynamite

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Good job dottom for pointing out the facts to this game. It wasn't looking good for the majority of the game, but that's why they play the whole game. This was also my biggest play of the day.

This is Dynamite by the way, with this forum's recent turnover my posting name got changed.

 

dottom

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Journeyman said:

I will play Hou + and over!

Click to expand...

Nice! I laid off the side- not sure how Schmidtty would pitch with recent probs. He dominated today, but the wind took care of business as planned.

"I love it when a plan comes together."

 

BaseballGuy

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• #9

Dottom,

It was nothing against you. I took your advice and journeys.. I placed a parlay on houston to win with it being over..

I am happy indeed it went over, that was why I was upset earlier.

Nice call!

 

Journeyman

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Baseball Guy , glad you got, i was just busting your balls some..it wasnt pretty but it got there...houston did squander some chances , I almost played a parlay but decided to play the game both side and total instead...Schmidt's was very good tonight though, he was lifetime 3-9 and had been awful the past month, plus I figured the Giants would do some damage.....In the end it worked out, but it wasnt pretty... I will take it, after the Miami 1st half bad beat this more than makes up!

 

dottom

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• #11

BaseballGuy- hey, no probs, no offense taking whatsoever.

I've written off many games myself early and vent too.... I agreed with your "NL" sentiment.... first 2 men get on, failed sacrifice, DP ends the inning, ugh!

I actually didn't write this one off even in the 9th b/c with a 3-2 score and a low total, just get it into extra innings and anything can happen. Remember that crazy SD/Yankee game earlier this year where 2-0 bottom 9th... I knew lots of folks on the UNDER. Yankees tied it in 9th (2-2). SD gets 3 top-12th and Yankees come back with 4 bottom 12th for final score 6-5 and an OVER.

Glad we all profited, that's the bottom line!

WTG on SD side too. I love wind angles. One of my fav angles, especially at SBC Park b/c books don't account for that like they do for Wrigley. Wind blows out about 2-3 times a month. You can get about 15 good games a year. I go to about 1/3 of the games and call in bets when the center field flags are flying out!!

 

BaseballGuy

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• Sep 24, 2004

• #12

Ya.. I also had The SD total runs over .parlayed with L.A to win and it got cancelled because of a pitcher change.



I made a ton with both journeys and your advice.

I usually do pretty poorly this late in the season. I needed all the help I could get.

Thanks!