How often does PINNY have the best price?(test with baseball betting system)

SportSavant · Sep 25, 2004

Last 4 Days I have been having Fun betting a 'SYSTEM' in MLB....

very simple really.... actually kind of stupid, but what the heck, so far so good as I have made money 4 days in a row... (Touch Wood).

System is based on all the wacky scores we have seen in MLB the last 2 weeks, Basically I take each game..... & look at either the ML Dog or the RL -1.5 + VIG.

If the ML DOG pays more I take the ML DOG, If Laying the -1.5 + VIG pays more, I lay the -1.5 + VIG. Bet 1/4 Unit on each game.

I currently Have:

SIA
Pinnacle
ABC
Intertops
WWTS
Greek
Playasap
Bowmans

Of course I shop for the best line & simply play the game at the Book offering the Highest + Vig....

TODAY 15 GAMES.....

***Pinnacle only had the best available line on Boston -1.5 + 172***

In every other game their line was the same or worse....

Honourable mention to ABC Islands who had the Best number more times than any other Book in my Menu.

MORAL OF THE STORY:

If you think you are smart by having Pinny as your only out or one of only two... You will get eaten alive in the long run

kermit16 · Sep 25, 2004

Good Post !
I often bet the run line and I have noticed the same thing. Quite often Pinnacle doesn't have the cheapest vig.

SportSavant · Sep 25, 2004

Wow, system posted above 5-0 so far today!!!! :toothless

Stl -1.5 +150 (winner)
SF -1.5 +150 (winner)
NYM + 230 (winner)
Baltimore -1.5 +146 (winner)
Tampa -1.5 +186 (winner)

looking like a 5th day in a row of profits playing this system.... will update rest of games once late games are done....

quantumleap · Sep 25, 2004

So are you going to take the Diamondbacks tonight for +390? (RL -1.5=-141)

SportSavant · Sep 25, 2004

system calls for Zona on the ML + 300....

although for fun I did put a touch on -1.5 + 435

SportSavant · Sep 26, 2004

5th day in a row this bases system makes money :aktion033

7 Losses = -700
8 Wins = +1300

+600 (based on 1 unit each)

Stl -1.5 +150 (+150)
SF -1.5 +150 (+150)
Mtl +140 (-100)
Pitt -1.5 +166 (-100)
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1

lace>Fla</st1

lace></st1:State> -1.5 +136 (-100)
Mil +162 (+162)
NYM +230 (+230)
Zona +300 (-100)
Balti -1.5 +146 (+146)
<st1:City><st1

lace>Tampa</st1

lace></st1:City> -1.5 +186 (-100)
Bos -1.5 + 172 (+172)
Clev +136 (+136)
KC +230 (-100)
Seatt +180 (-100)
Ana -1.5 +154 (+154)

***Will continue to monitor how Pinny grades in having the best available line, aswell as how this system fair's over the next few Days***

WildBill · Sep 26, 2004

Your title is really a misnomer. It should be does Pinnacle really offer the best PRICES, vig isn't really what we are dealing with here because there -105 pricing on most sports is in general terms the lowest vig you will find.

I don't think Pinny aspires to be the cheapest price when a player comes with a list of books like that. No book really wants to be in that spot because when you think about it in theory what you are really doing is opening yourself up to only writing bets from the people you may not want that much, ie. scalpers and sharps. Pinny uses that thin vig usually working to put it inside the numbers seen elsewhere. The books you mention are in many cases catering to the public and at this time of year books have to be careful with bases since they will get unbalanced quite often. They certainly would never be called slow to move a number so chances are good that if you have enough books your experience probably isn't that unusual, especially betting baseball in September.

SportSavant · Sep 26, 2004

Philly -1.5 +148 (-100)
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1

lace>Atlanta</st1

lace></st1:City> -1.5 +149 (+149)
NYM +166 (+166)
Pitt -1.5 +166 (+146)
Milw +155 (-100)
Color +157 (-100)
LA +147 (+147)
Zona +320 (-100)
Minny -1.5 +125 (+125)
<st1:City><st1

lace>Detroit</st1

lace></st1:City> +152 (-100)
NYY +173 (-100)
Sea +225 (+225)
KC +173 (-100)
Ana -1.5 +174 (+174)

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

></o

>
Unbeleivable, a 6<SUP>th</SUP> winning day in a row for this system trying to cash in on Wacky September Baseball Scores….

<o

></o

>
7 Losses (-700)

7 Wins (+985)

<o

></o

>

(+285 based on 100 per Unit Play)

For the Record Pinnacle has the Best 'Price' (thanks wildbill) on about 5 of the games tonite...

PanchoSanza · Sep 27, 2004

Keep laying the 1.5 runs and you will be broke in the long run.

Don't take my word for it, find out the hard way if you wish.:heh:

SportSavant · Sep 27, 2004

MODS, CAN YOU CHANGE THE TITLE OF THIS THREAD TO:

How often does Pinny Have the Best Price? (Test with Baseball Betting System...)

certainly not advising/recommending anyone try this with real money Pancho... Just having some fun here...

At this time of year many give up on bases due to the start of foots & the unpredictable scores... Have noticed it is almost impossible to judge the 'motivation' of any given team...

Thus Shopping for the best available line among 5-8 books & taking the highest possible vig was something I thought I would try to track till the end of the season....

Theory is that with so money 'unpredictbale' games & with 'Shopping for the best available vig' I might be able to grind out a profit from now till end of year..... Would never try this during mid season....

SportSavant · Sep 27, 2004

Monday (shopping among Pinny/SIA/ABC/ASAP/WWTS... these are the 5 books I have funded right now)

Montreal -1.5 +145 (SIA)
Phily -1.5 +186 (ASAP)
NYM +221 (ASAP)
Cincy +270 (ABC)
Hous -1.5 +160 (WWTS)
Zona -1.5 +185 (ABC)
Color +178 (ABC)
Baltimore -1.5 +166 (Pinny)
Detroit -1.5 +175 (ASAP)
Tampa +195 (SIA)
Ana -1.5 +125 (WWTS)
KC +148 (ABC)
Seattle +195 (SIA)

***probably whould have waited on the Big ML dogs closser to game time, but didn't have the time to do that then...***

cussin'it · Sep 27, 2004

not sure why you'd take montreal and give -1.5 runs for +145 WHEN

you can take them on the ML at Pinny for +140???

you'd give 1.5 runs on a shitty team for a lousy 5 cents??

SportSavant · Sep 27, 2004

it was a typo,

I got MTL + 145 on the ML not the Run Line.

oldmanTED · Sep 27, 2004

Savant:

The answer is "absolutely not". There have been many, many times that I have found Pinnacle hanging a line at anywhere from -111 to -114 on a number while a straight book with no reduced vig is still hanging the same line at -110. Having a book with reduced vig is important but it definitely should not preclude a player from having a book that deals no reduced juice.

SportSavant · Sep 28, 2004

Montreal +145 (SIA) (-100)
Phily -1.5 +186 (ASAP) (-100)
NYM +221 (ASAP) (PPD)
Cincy +270 (ABC) (-100)
Hous -1.5 +160 (WWTS) (+160)
Zona -1.5 +185 (ABC) (+185)
Color +178 (ABC) (-100)
Baltimore -1.5 +166 (Pinny) (-100)
Detroit -1.5 +175 (ASAP) (+175)
Tampa +195 (SIA) (-100)
Ana -1.5 +125 (WWTS) (+125)
KC +148 (ABC) (-100)
Seattle +195 (SIA) (-100)

8 Losses 4 Wins

-800 Losses
+640 WIns

-160 based on 100 per Unit....

First losing day since of the last 7 days...... :mad:

SportSavant · Sep 29, 2004

Tuesday:

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ffice

ffice" /><o

></o

>
8 Losses = -800
5 Wins = +1016
+216 Based on 100 per play :aktion033
7 of 8 Days profitable with this system….:aktion033

***almost came close to a big day as Tampa blows a big lead, Colorado blows a big lead giving up 5 in bottom of ninth***

Pinny had the best line in 4 of the cases.... this 'system' clearly illustrates the value & importance of always shopping for the best available line..... IMO 4 Books would be a minimum amount I would want to have in my arsenal.... even if I only had a few bucks in each....
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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1

lace> Fla</st1

lace></st1:State> -1.5 +150 (asap) (+150)
Pitt +158 (pinny) (PPD)
NYM +195 (sia) (-100)
Cincy +270 (abc) (+270)
Hous -1.5 +176 (pinny) (-100)
Zona -1.5 +158 (asap) (-100)
SD +135 (sia) (-100)
Color +176 (abc) (-100)
NYM +215 (sia) (+215)
Min +220 (wwts) (PPD)
Balti -1.5 +156 (pinny) (PPD)
Det -1.5 +156 (pinny) (+156)
TB + 177 (abc) (-100)
<st1:State><st1

lace>Tex</st1

lace></st1:State> +151 (abc) (-100)
KC +121 (bowmans) (-100)
Sea +255 (abc) (+225)

bombay24 · Sep 29, 2004

Savant- I'd be interested to see how this works with the 5 inning props? Any ideas?

GoUH · Sep 29, 2004

Fun thread, interested in how the system turns out in the long run.

SportSavant · Sep 30, 2004

Bombay.....

I do not beleive I would have the same advantage with the 5 inning line. With a true 'Dime Line' or even better an 8 cent line (Pinny) the 'theoritcal' hold is very low.... Most of the books I have offer a true dime line, & two of them offer a 'Dime Line' on RL's aswell. (Pinny & ASAP).... Ive also got some square books so by shopping among 5-8 books for the best possible number I am tremendously reducing the bookie's 'theoritcal' hold. Main reason why I did not think I would get too hurt trying this system, especially at this time of year when anything happens....

In terms of the 5 inning line... Books are not as competitive, usually charge more Vig... & some books do not offer them at all... A huge part to this 'System' is having the 5-8 books to get the best possible number I beleive. It really is just for fun... who knows, I may track it some more next year....:drink:

SportSavant · Sep 30, 2004

Update for WEDNESDAY:

I am too LAZY to write out all of the games... but here is the summarry for Wednesday.

System Lost 11 Games = -1100
System Won 7 Games = +1374

Another day of Profits:aktion033

thanks to Big dog hits like TB +280, Cincy +210, rockies + 229 & seattle +200....baltimore, CWS & KC were also winners on the run line...

Pinny had the best available line in 6 of the 17 total Bets