bet on games only where youve seen the teams play before or have some kind of real knowledge about them that has nothing to do with handicapping. if not try to get to know them through poster's write ups.
it is not as simple as "learn how to read the line" sure. this is the proper way to cap I know that. but it is team and situation specific and requires watching what the line does and does in fact require using stats that have tracked past line moves in similar situations this is a complex method to use. I love it, I live it, for its my passion but I'm sorry I got to combine this with what I posted above. just going on raw data no matter what raw data you will just be in the middle of the pack. sure, back in the 80's when linesmakers were sleeping with a tooth under the pillow lalalala you could bury them if you were an astute anaylizer of stats, see the computer group headed by William Walters for futher reference. But in 2004 you have to be able to do it all to be 62% + on a consistent basis. that means both understanding data and team talent
it is not as simple as "learn how to read the line" sure. this is the proper way to cap I know that. but it is team and situation specific and requires watching what the line does and does in fact require using stats that have tracked past line moves in similar situations this is a complex method to use. I love it, I live it, for its my passion but I'm sorry I got to combine this with what I posted above. just going on raw data no matter what raw data you will just be in the middle of the pack. sure, back in the 80's when linesmakers were sleeping with a tooth under the pillow lalalala you could bury them if you were an astute anaylizer of stats, see the computer group headed by William Walters for futher reference. But in 2004 you have to be able to do it all to be 62% + on a consistent basis. that means both understanding data and team talent
Last edited:
I want to add that my head hasnt fully been into capping since last years NBA playoffs, and thats why you havent seen anything from me worth noting. I know I come off like some 'know it all' above but the truth is I used pour everything I had in to it day in and day out and I was very very good I'm not going to post a bunch of crap to hype myself up. but I definatly know what it takes to be great. to be honest with you, I really dont know how some of you guys are able to be succesful season after season I suffer from burn out rather quickly.
rest assured, 'my head' will be back in it very soon. I like to do things 110% or not at all. if it is 'at all' usually its just for fun.
rest assured, 'my head' will be back in it very soon. I like to do things 110% or not at all. if it is 'at all' usually its just for fun.
Last edited:
ok lets cut the crap. where is the big money to be made? college football. right? nothings changed. . .there is more than enough info out there to go 60% year after year. college hoops also. you know for a fact there are guys who hit 60% in the 2 big college sports year after year even college baseball guys for the CWS who went to that school and knew the teams they came on here and made it look easier than any other sport.
it comes back to discipline. who is disciplined enough to just play college sports?! no one. no one. no one.
it comes back to discipline. who is disciplined enough to just play college sports?! no one. no one. no one.
Last edited:
you are out of your fvcking mind. The mathematics of wagering with a known 60% win percentage have been covered before and you would be a millionaire over 1 season.
back to handicapping 101: there are guys that do extensive statistical and situational analysis and can pick consistent winners. They are few and far between though. Anyone doing this recreationally or as a "hobby" has no chance to do better analysis. So if you are trying to beat the game by "handicapping" you better be either an absolute genius or putting a lot of hours in.
The easiest way (and only way for a recreational player) to win is by knowing WHO is betting what...fading the public is great, access to "sharp plays" before the numbers move across the board is also good. Information which is tough to get, but available...
the computer group hit in the mid 60's like 4 or 5 years in a row. i hit over 60 2 years in a row documented at offshorebettor (10 play per week max) and I think one or two others did as well. they dont do monitoring anymore though . I bet omnivorous frog has gone 60+ for a few seasons running now..college sports its not that hard to go over 60% consistently. if you dump the time into it .when you throw in pro sports, yes it is not possible to go in the 60's year after year. no one goes in the 60's year after year in pro sports i will agree to that
i will also agree when you say its a lot of freaking work. it is stressful boring interesting tiring and I had no life at all. .I got sick of it and you cant have distractions I will be back in it soon tho
i will also agree when you say its a lot of freaking work. it is stressful boring interesting tiring and I had no life at all. .I got sick of it and you cant have distractions I will be back in it soon tho
Last edited:
Absolutely right on.drunkguy said:
So far my football season is OK by following select cappers here and by picking out situations where I expect a small profit either way and a chance to middle. So far I made one middle on the first NFL game buying IND+3.5 and PATS-2.5 at prices guaranteeing a small profit even if the middle did not land.
Unless you are betting ML dogs or betting huge wagers, even hitting 60% is no big deal. It is all still just a grind.
If you are betting a max of ten games a week and hitting 60% that means after two season your record would be around 170-115. Averaging -107 per side and even betting a dime a game is "only" going to be a profit of about 44K. You can make close to that risk free taking leads and buying back in baseball in that time period.
Of course this brings up the old argument of straight wagering versus adjusting bet amounts. But if you do the latter, win percentages means absolutely nothing.
Football is a fools game unless you are doing it for fun, grinding it out HOPING to make some money by hitting 53-54% (for that you can just flip a coin), or you pick and chose 4 to 5 games a year and go balls out on them and hope you lose none or one.
One other caveat, if people ignored the line altogether, especially in the NFL, they would be so much further ahead they would scare themselves.
Buy a book with all the schedules. Check each game now that you want to bet for the year. Bet each team that you check to win, either on the ML or with the points. For example say you look at 11/28 and see Tenn at Hou. You think that that is a win for Tenn. So you mark it. With no regard to the line, you bet that game when it gets here. At the time you always look for the best lline avaialable, but your mind id already made up, and won't be made up after you look at at some arbitrary number.
There isn't a person in the world that can look at a number and say one team has more "value" than the other and pick them consistantly enough to wager without worry. Not even all the urban myths and legends that get touted on this board. Even the ones that supposedly average 100K per play. Even if they only bet 20 games a year and hit 60% that is still about a quarter mil in profits a year. I don't care who you are 240K is a nice year for something that is "easy".
If you are betting a max of ten games a week and hitting 60% that means after two season your record would be around 170-115. Averaging -107 per side and even betting a dime a game is "only" going to be a profit of about 44K. You can make close to that risk free taking leads and buying back in baseball in that time period.
Of course this brings up the old argument of straight wagering versus adjusting bet amounts. But if you do the latter, win percentages means absolutely nothing.
Football is a fools game unless you are doing it for fun, grinding it out HOPING to make some money by hitting 53-54% (for that you can just flip a coin), or you pick and chose 4 to 5 games a year and go balls out on them and hope you lose none or one.
One other caveat, if people ignored the line altogether, especially in the NFL, they would be so much further ahead they would scare themselves.
Buy a book with all the schedules. Check each game now that you want to bet for the year. Bet each team that you check to win, either on the ML or with the points. For example say you look at 11/28 and see Tenn at Hou. You think that that is a win for Tenn. So you mark it. With no regard to the line, you bet that game when it gets here. At the time you always look for the best lline avaialable, but your mind id already made up, and won't be made up after you look at at some arbitrary number.
There isn't a person in the world that can look at a number and say one team has more "value" than the other and pick them consistantly enough to wager without worry. Not even all the urban myths and legends that get touted on this board. Even the ones that supposedly average 100K per play. Even if they only bet 20 games a year and hit 60% that is still about a quarter mil in profits a year. I don't care who you are 240K is a nice year for something that is "easy".
