Further discussion on this post please (Post by WantitAll4Moi)

Unless you are betting ML dogs or betting huge wagers, even hitting 60% is no big deal. It is all still just a grind.


If you are betting a max of ten games a week and hitting 60% that means after two season your record would be around 170-115. Averaging -107 per side and even betting a dime a game is "only" going to be a profit of about 44K. You can make close to that risk free taking leads and buying back in baseball in that time period.

Of course this brings up the old argument of straight wagering versus adjusting bet amounts. But if you do the latter, win percentages means absolutely nothing.
Football is a fools game unless you are doing it for fun, grinding it out HOPING to make some money by hitting 53-54% (for that you can just flip a coin), or you pick and chose 4 to 5 games a year and go balls out on them and hope you lose none or one.

One other caveat, if people ignored the line altogether, especially in the NFL, they would be so much further ahead they would scare themselves.

Buy a book with all the schedules. Check each game now that you want to bet for the year. Bet each team that you check to win, either on the ML or with the points. For example say you look at 11/28 and see Tenn at Hou. You think that that is a win for Tenn. So you mark it. With no regard to the line, you bet that game when it gets here. At the time you always look for the best lline avaialable, but your mind id already made up, and won't be made up after you look at at some arbitrary number.

There isn't a person in the world that can look at a number and say one team has more "value" than the other and pick them consistantly enough to wager without worry. Not even all the urban myths and legends that get touted on this board. Even the ones that supposedly average 100K per play. Even if they only bet 20 games a year and hit 60% that is still about a quarter mil in profits a year. I don't care who you are 240K is a nice year for something that is "easy".
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You can make close to that risk free taking leads and buying back in baseball in that time period.

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He's confused being able to scalp with being smart.

To prove my point, his point about " just pick the winner and don't worry about the spred" is not the golden goose he makes it sound like.:think:

There are so many other ways to make a living than betting just strictly straight wagers.

Scalping
Middling
Parlays
Contests
Teasers
Bonuses

Pancho Sanza said:

He's confused being able to scalp with being smart.

To prove my point, his point about " just pick the winner and don't worry about the spred" is not the golden goose he makes it sound like.:think:

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Thank you!

The thing is I have seen guys on here day after day, week after week, sweating a line that hs moved one way or the other before they bet it. Had they simply taken a look ahead and had some games in mind that they liked they wouldn't have to worry about missing a line move (irrelevant as they generally are).

The whole point of the post was to say that football is not worth the worry to begin with, and when guys compound those worries on a weekly basis because they wanted GB -5 but they are now -5.5 is beyond ridiculous.

Right now baseball is a windfall, especailly on the weekends. it isn't hard to see some huge moves on Sat and Sun. Obviously that is all ending this weekend, but I would expect to see some major line moves on a few games especially in the LA/SF series and Oak/Ana series where those games actually still mean something.

As for the generic football statements, I will stand by them. If a guy has some games in mind BEFORE the season starts and bets those teams when they arise, he will be further ahead in the long run.

Everyone is a genius after the games are over, I have yet to see where someone can positively say, "you lost the half point, you are going to lose". Basically because it is impossible to do so.

If guys were that good why pick those games where the half point comes into play at all? There are dozens of games where the point spread is never in question, to me, someone that was so good would consistently be betting those games. Not betting games where his teams need a penalty or a punt return to cover a spread.

But while we are on the subject of "value" here is one for you...

Hou was +2.5 -110 +119 ML yesterday at Pin. Oak was -2.5 +100 -129 ML. Which line has more "value"? Or does it really matter?

My pont being you see maybe 3 or 4 of those lines a year, so basically to have any real value you need to bet every game to get the PERCIEVED value. One is definately more valuable in theory, but if it loses does it matter?

That is why baseball kicks footballs ass on every count. there are more than 12 times as many games, and when you include the totals in bases there are about 25 times as many plays one can make. When you are handcuffed into a system that is as book friendly as football, and have a very limited number of games where even perceived advantages exist. It isn't hard to see that football is a hard sport to make money in.

Unless of course you hit a few and don't lose, or bet a lot of money and don't lose.

I haven't even done baseball full time this year and made almost 22K. With little or no risk. That is also after I have had to eat a couple moves that went against me in a big way when I was away and got the buy back too late. But that is basically the only risk one takes with taking leads. But unless you make a major mistake, or ARE away from the computer for an extended period and the line does go the "wrong" way while you are gone, then you are not going to get buried. Unlike football when you go 0-5 and double up on Monday night and lose.

Baseball is an everyday sport, and football is one where you have to fit it all in within a certain time frame. That is a huge psychlogical barrier as well. It gives you more time to think about losing, or makes you more desperate when you do.

Baseball is like "I went 0-4 today, but tomorrow is another day" sort of sport, especially for guys betting one way. Lsing one day doesn't have nearly the impact as losing in football does, where you have to basically wait a whole week to 'get it back" and once you have that mind set, you are done anyways.

It sounds to me like you should stick to wagering on baseball.

Not only did you say you are winning in that sport with little effort, your examples are right on the money.

By the sounds of it, it seems you havent been able to grasp a way to win at football enough to satisfy your needs.

This is not to say that other people have the same dilemma, as many people make a sound profit in football year in and year out that is substantial.

Keep up the good work in baseball and here is hoping you have a successful playoff run.

:toast:

Good post Wantitall...I feel the same way about baseball, its by far the easiest to beat IMO...the funny thing is I dont study it nowhere near as much as the other sports (as far as betting on it)

of course though, I have forgotten more about baseball than almost any living creature :heh:

of course though, I have forgotten more about baseball than almost any living creature ...JMAN


Another one of my RX students.

Lesson #9- Be cocky and confident in yourself and let others know it!

Very proud of you JMAN!

:awesom:

"I haven't even done baseball full time this year and made almost 22K."

Congratulations, you keep picking up the pennies while leaving the 20 dollar bills on the floor for me.:toothless

Fish, I do OK in football when I bet it. I just know that it is a hit or miss thing.


I am doing a little experiment in another forum that involves simply flipping a coin and how it is probably just as profittable (code for less costly) than actually handicapping and picking games. I am doing it with a buddy of mine and so far he is losing slightly more than he is winning, just as I am.

This guy I should note has been in the money 3 of the past 4 years in the Hilton contest, so at least on that stage he has some credibilty. So far this year he is 8-7, but it is early. But that is the beauty of this "experiment", it takes several angles.

But his picks with me include all his plays, not neccesarily his Hilton plays.

Football is just something to do to fill in the fall. Make as many bets as you can, get on as many MLs as you can and hope you hit enough to make it profittable. If you are flat betting, and making bets that are always the same, not adding vig on before hand. all you need to do is be adequate.

But people want to get rich, and they put expectations on themselves that are unrealistic. Even if the seem realistic, they are generally unrealistic in real terms. Like guys that look to hit 57% instead of 65%. If I make 300 bets in the NFL and NCAA a year and have a nice ML result I will take 52%, and that to me is very realistic, and it is actually proffitable.

It isn't like you can't make money betting football,you just need to realize that if you make 2-5% on whatever you put through the windows you should be happy. Meaning, that if you wager 200K, if you profit 4000 to 10000 that has to be seen as a "success". But for most it isn't. So is the risk worth it for the guys that make money elsewhere?

It is a toss up, and that is why I say that the lower your expectations the better. At my base bet amount, if I started out 12-5 on the first weekend, it would probably be just as profittable to quit then and not bet again for the rest of the season. But doing that is difficult, and doing that also gives most guys the air of invincibilty that usually does them in. Because the next week they are generally 7-20, after they bet twice as many games, and get beat early and chase late.

The thing is it is a long process. So the quitting part, contradicts my general philosophy of gambling. But again, in theory it would be plausible. To me you need to bet as amny games a s possible, not worry about wins and losses, and just hope that you show a profit each and every week.

To me, that is the real secret. Scalping/arbitraging/taking leads, whatever you want to call it. It is a grind, and it is nickle and dimeng, but IT DOESN'T LOSE. That is the whole key to it.

Pancho this one is for you:

If someone offered you 100 dollars NOT to bet the game would you rather do that? Or would you rather have the guy let you bet the game in hopes of you 'doubling up'? Also take this into consideration. He offers you 100 bux every time you want to bet a game.

In a nutshell that is arbitraging. It isn't gambling, it is basically the books offering you money not to bet the game. So it all comes down to whether a guy will take a risk to make a grand or so on a agme or a free 100 bux on the game.

If you think the best way to make money is to scalp, god bless you, go ahead and scalp.

All I'm telling you is for 22k, I wouldn't bother.:howdy:

I love your throries, I am a grinder by trade myself.

can someone please link to the initial thread that led to this discussion?:discuss:

the betting 101 thread

Wantitall--

Just think, a month from now you can come on here and point out the historical inaccuracies of the Halloween costumes you saw.

GL