Some random thoughts to think about

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I have mulled this one over in my head for awhile now, and I always seem to come up with the same answer.

All the new start up books or low level books...How many actually are booking those bets themselves?

Meaning, there are more than a few books out there that have pretty small limits. They also post their lines quite abit after everyone else.

So who is to say those guys are not just well disguised brokerage houses? Meaning they see Oly post a baseball game -125 /+115, Pin has -122/+114, Canbet has -120/+100. They run a dime line and they put up -123/+113. Who is to say that they can't take everything they get bet either way and simply lay it off?

Say you have 10 dimes at your number -123. Adjust your number to -125, then go bet it at Canbet for -120 and if they adjust, then get some down at Pin for the penny at -122. Same thing on the dog side. But hwere you might want to wait some. Especially if it is the 'short' side. Say you only have 3000 on that side. You lay off the 10K and that money in turn is actually "put on the market" twice, thus generating double the perceived play on that side. So in essence, when you lay it off that in turn generates money for your other side you are looking to lay off later. So when you lay off the 10K, that might get that fave to -127/+117. So the money you took at +113, has gained 3 cents from the BEST market number available, when you seemingly had the second best number at the time.

How hard is it really to do that? If you put up numbers late enough, and have limits that are low enough to limit any "steam" problems, then how difficult would it be really? I would be willing to say that more books than you think do this.

Also, how hard would it be in football? It would actually be easier. You could jam Pin for the adjusted vig, and maybe get a "better than free" half point somewhere else for some reduced vig (although that -107 has become less of a norm these days). But again, how hard is it?

The only risks you would take would be on the second half numbers, but even then if you were late with posting them, you would avoid that initial rush that seems to always occur. But as long as you could adjust the vig correctly, you could still lay it off somewhere else for a few pennies.

I know there are a lot of places out there that do put up second lines a lot later than other. So it isn't like a book would be crucified for not putting up lines in a timely fashion.

Obviously this sort of thing would take a lot of time, or a very good program, but if it were your profession what would make it any different than any other job? Especially if you were putting up numbers in the morning rather than overnight. to me that is simply just a regular 10 hour work day. Basically looking at a screen and adjusting accordingly.

Obviously it would be all about volume, but even so, most guys who deposit NEVER request a pay out ever, because they eventually lose, so basically they are giving the books money to make money with.

Also the money is always there to do pay outs, and as long as the books are not "gambling" then they would always be "winning". Sure it is pennies on the dollar. But when it is compounded and you have your money working for you it wouldn't take much to really show some profits. If every 5 or 10K bet you made made a penny or two on the backside that adds up. That is $2 or more free per 100, basically 2%. Obviously with the right strategy and right lines it coould be upwards of 7-10%.

But even figuring you could make 7% of the WINNERS, the losers would just be gravy. Losers being guys that built up their accounts but eventually went bust. Because you would have that balance spread out over both sides at two or three other books.

I am sure there are day traders and stock guys out there that have probably thought about this. But I am thinking that it is more reality than fantasy.

That is why it boggles my mind when I see books go bankrupt. But when they do, the obvious statement is.. It is a lot easier, and a lot more profitable to steal it that use it. So whenever these books do go under, I have to think that they never had any intention of paying anyone in the first place.

How can you lose? Honestly. If you are booking bets, and have low limits and cloned lines. How do you go broke?

But that is another topic for another time.
 

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Or local bookmakers....I have considered this theory myself...I like your insight.
 

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I used to do it all the time in college. Although the internet wasn't available then, I had some local bookies with semi differing numbers, but I could always lay off here or there. I covered some myself of course (gambling) but we are talking max $500 bets from Ivy League kids who had a lot of money and if they weren't doing blow they were losing their trust funds on gambling. In any case they really didn't put much thought into what they were doing with it.


That is why I have always had it in the back of my mind. Of course that was about 15 years ago now. Boy if I was in college now and had the internet to work with. WOW.

I know there are guys back there making a killing off those guys.

Dave Cokin used to hang out when I was going to school back there. I am sure he could relate some stories to people. Although I didn't know who he was then, the first time I saw him on TV I recognized him immediately. Not sure if he was a tout then or not, but if he was i am syure there were plenty of fish to be had.
 

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If they are doing everything like you said (low limits, lines up late) and are still getting some action they would be stupid to sell it to Pin or anyone else unless they just had no money at all to handle swings (i.e. bankroll). If you are taking the best of almost every bet, why share the profit with others. You will need all that to cover your own expenses. In post up you are just giving away profit. In credit operation you could come out behind because all your players aren't going to pay and you are giving most of the profit to your lay-off books.
 

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