I am not popping this back because I think it is a winner or I made some astounding call.
But simply because the game is done and the odds are now adjusted.
When I looked last night it was Yankees +104. Now it is OTB for some reason. Probably because they can't get the odds right. Or had people stil betting Minn.
But the thing about the odds they had up, Minn actually went to +156 not too long after I posted this, but creeped all the way back up to at least +160 yesterday morning. Not sure what they may have closed at. But the thing about them is that the only value in that particular bet was Minn. You were getting a 70 cent premium against the game and the series. That is unheard of. But for some reason people still bet the Yankees, now they see that instead of -170 they could be getting plus money. Even at -170, they were actually worse than just winning this second game as they were -150 originally, but as expected,they have gone up to -170 as people flock to the Yankess and figure they won't lose two at home.
But my logic would have been to think. If you like the Yankees in this series, you bet them in that first game at +105 or whatever you could have found them at. To me that was the only way to get value. Because had they won that first game, they would probably have been at least -300 to win the series up 1-0. But had they lost (which they did) their odds would be Ev to +110. Which is about where they were before they took it down.
But forgetting all that for the moment. The first thing you look for is starting game odds and 5th game probable odds. In this case you had a game one at -110 for Minn, and could probably factor a 150 or so for a game 5. As it turns out now, if it goes to a game 5 and Radke faces Lieber then you might get the same +160 you can now which makes it a wash.
But that basically only works out if you wanted Minn. Betting the Yankees for the series at those odds made no sense whatsoever. But many people did, and many after I pointed this out here.
There isn't a logical argument one could make to justify it. If the person's argument is they will win both games at home, then you bet the Yankess in a game by game situation situation. If you think the Yankees can lose game one and still win 3 of 4, then you wait and bet them if they lose. If they win, then you have to wait, because the odds are now ****. The only way you lose out (don't get to bet) is if they sweep, because if they go up 2-0, you cannot bet game 3. If they lose game 3 at leat you get positive ods on them in game 4 against Santana if you chose to bet them there, figuring they could beat him twice in a week. But it would probably be best to just wait until the odds came out for a 5th and deciding game. As long as those odds were equal to or lesser than -170, then you made no mistakes, and lost nothing. In the case they are less, you actually made a better decision by waiting.
Of course people can argue this or that, but to me people who bet the Yankess before game one at those series odds made a major mistake.
