They were at least plus +160 as a -110/115 favorite, today they are a +165 dog and -103/105 for the seires? It is a terrible price actually.
The same rule applies, if you want to bet Minn for the seires, either bet them today on the game, or wait until they lose (if they do) and get a premium price tomorrow when it gets readjusted. I would say they will be +145/150 if the lose today. I havene't seena line for game three, but I will asume they will be a dog of around that much, maybe +135.
But taking them at thse odds doesn't really make sense. You have two or three other options that make that line obsolete.
The same rule applies, if you want to bet Minn for the seires, either bet them today on the game, or wait until they lose (if they do) and get a premium price tomorrow when it gets readjusted. I would say they will be +145/150 if the lose today. I havene't seena line for game three, but I will asume they will be a dog of around that much, maybe +135.
But taking them at thse odds doesn't really make sense. You have two or three other options that make that line obsolete.
want, your math is all wrong here. All wrong. Now that I've bet all the Twins series I can I'll show you why are wrong. Twins series right now at + money is a freaking gift, much better than +175 tonight and here's why...
Hang with me on the math and assumptions here. OK, work with Twins +105 series here (since that's what I got). Now let's figure what the line will be with each team winning. If the Yanks win, we'll go with the +150/-160 you suggested, I agree with that. If the Twins win, then the Yanks need to win the remaining three to win the series. Scheduled are Hernandez vs. Silva, Vazquez vs. Santana and then Mussina vs. Radke. I'll be REAL generous to NYY on these lines. Yanks -130, Yanks +110, Yanks -220. That's VERY generous with those scheduled pitchers. OK, now that would be +440 series. Very might be even higher, but I wanted to be conservative to make the point here.
Now, let's figure you bought the +105 today and then planned on buying back on the Yanks to win the series the same either way regardless of tonight's outcome.
For simplicity's sake, figure you bet 100 to win 105 today...
If NY loses tonight, then at Yanks +440, you'd need to bet around 38. Your net profit either way would then be 67.
If NY wins tonight, then at Yanks -160, you'd need to bet around 126. Your net loss either way would then be around 21.
So based on tonight's outcome you'd either win 67 or lose 21. That's around +319. So if my assumptions are correct (and if anything I think they are LOW) this series of bets essentially offers the Twins at +319 tonight.
At Twins series +100 it comes to around +275.
Any kind of + money, or even -103, on the Twins series is actually a more profitable bet (or makes for a profitable series of bets) than the Twins ML tonight.
Hang with me on the math and assumptions here. OK, work with Twins +105 series here (since that's what I got). Now let's figure what the line will be with each team winning. If the Yanks win, we'll go with the +150/-160 you suggested, I agree with that. If the Twins win, then the Yanks need to win the remaining three to win the series. Scheduled are Hernandez vs. Silva, Vazquez vs. Santana and then Mussina vs. Radke. I'll be REAL generous to NYY on these lines. Yanks -130, Yanks +110, Yanks -220. That's VERY generous with those scheduled pitchers. OK, now that would be +440 series. Very might be even higher, but I wanted to be conservative to make the point here.
Now, let's figure you bought the +105 today and then planned on buying back on the Yanks to win the series the same either way regardless of tonight's outcome.
For simplicity's sake, figure you bet 100 to win 105 today...
If NY loses tonight, then at Yanks +440, you'd need to bet around 38. Your net profit either way would then be 67.
If NY wins tonight, then at Yanks -160, you'd need to bet around 126. Your net loss either way would then be around 21.
So based on tonight's outcome you'd either win 67 or lose 21. That's around +319. So if my assumptions are correct (and if anything I think they are LOW) this series of bets essentially offers the Twins at +319 tonight.
At Twins series +100 it comes to around +275.
Any kind of + money, or even -103, on the Twins series is actually a more profitable bet (or makes for a profitable series of bets) than the Twins ML tonight.
I understand that math aspect. All I am saying is that at +105 it would have probably been best to wait altogether.
I bet Minn at +158 and again at +160, so I didnt bother with this game. But even, so I couldn't see how having a -110 fave win for you in game one and then being a +200 dog in game two makes losing 65 cents a good line for the updated series price?
Basically you lay of this game altogether and hope Minn loses, thus getting the nicer price that will be updated tomorrow. I figure +145/150 now. You are basically getting a predictable result and much better odds.
I doubt there were many that thought the Yankees would go down 0-2, so them winning was pretty predictable.
Maybe I am using reverse logic, but I have to think the best pitcher in baseball this post All Star break at -110 with a corresponding series price of +160 is a hell of a smarter play than a +200 dog corresponding to a -105 series price.
It goes along with the argument I was having in the math discussion. Math is only so good, sometimes common sense has to kick in. To me betting the series on the Minn side was illogical after that first game win. You either had to bet them before, or wait, and hope they lost tonight. Which they did.
My logic says that betting them now you have one goal, getting Minn to win 2 of the next 4 games. Again, my logic would say/assume that to be a without a doubt winner they would need to win game 2. So what makes more sense, betting game two for +200 or betting Minn to win the series at -105? Each bet to me is making the statement that "I hope Minn wins this game". Because if they don't win game two, then where is the value in them in the series at +105? There is none. The ONLY way in my mind Minn had value at +105 in that sitaution is if they had won that second game, so it is an end justifying the means. To make them have value, they had to win at bigger odds at something that is actually easier to do, win a single game rather than win two more.
So now you have your beter odds, and about the same expected chance of winning the series (in my mnd) as you did before this game. Plus you got to see that Minn was game in their loss, and that if anything they were better than expected.
So now you have to look and see whether you still think Minn is worth it. You will definately see the odds for the next two games, and can also assume what game 5 odds will be after the way the odds moved tonight. Plus if Mussina does skip and they "concede" the Sanatna start, then -225/+208 wouldn't be outrageous after what we saw tonight, especially in a deciding game.
But that is the quandry I am in now. Even at the +160 I bet them at in game one for the series, if the predictable happens and they go five games, I would have been much better off not betting those odds either, and simply waiting to bet them in game 5.
Which when you think about it, makes betting them at -105 (or even +105) to win the series even less valuable.
So far the games have come out right on cue. The individual game odds may have seemed off, but in terms of where the series would be, it is dead on. Game 3 is the tricky one, basically am hoping Minn wins, then I can bet NYY as a decent dog against Santana, I am figuring +110 at least(hedged slightly in an elimination game). If the Yanks win I let my future bet ride, if they lose I cash my future bet that game Minn win series 3-1. So I have a built in scalp with a free roll in game five, a Minn win in that game is all gravy.
That is obviously best case scenario. The more predictable outcome is a loss in game 3, and a win in game 4 for Minn (which I can't bet) forcing a fifth game, where we will see how bad the odds on Minn were. Especailly after everyone and their brother hit tonight as they drove that line 60 cents towards the Yankees. I would imagine they do the same thing in that game especially if Mussina is up.
But this is what I do. Series prices. It might not always be the most mathematically correct way, but I am generally pretty good at determing odds. Although tonight's games odds threw it way off. The thing is, I think Mussina starts game 4 if Yanks loses game 3. Even tho he has not been great in the play offs, he is basically the only one with experience. SO in a must win he has to start.
So a lot of predictions and a lot of guess work. The smartest play would have probably been to bet NYY tonight in the series for whatever the best odds were. I think maybe +100? Because by waiting I am looking for the home run as those odds were predictably the best you could expect thinking they would win game 2 and game 3.
So my whole profit margin rests in the next game. It is an all or nothing play basically. If Minn loses, and the odds are as shtty as I expect them to be in game 5, then all is for not. Unless I take a stand on the Yankees in game 4, and hope they beat Santana to win the series 3-1. But that could be double trouble, because I could then lose both bets and collect nothing.
If you can't tell I like taking the gamble out of gambling. But all you need is one home run series to make the rest free.
I bet Minn at +158 and again at +160, so I didnt bother with this game. But even, so I couldn't see how having a -110 fave win for you in game one and then being a +200 dog in game two makes losing 65 cents a good line for the updated series price?
Basically you lay of this game altogether and hope Minn loses, thus getting the nicer price that will be updated tomorrow. I figure +145/150 now. You are basically getting a predictable result and much better odds.
I doubt there were many that thought the Yankees would go down 0-2, so them winning was pretty predictable.
Maybe I am using reverse logic, but I have to think the best pitcher in baseball this post All Star break at -110 with a corresponding series price of +160 is a hell of a smarter play than a +200 dog corresponding to a -105 series price.
It goes along with the argument I was having in the math discussion. Math is only so good, sometimes common sense has to kick in. To me betting the series on the Minn side was illogical after that first game win. You either had to bet them before, or wait, and hope they lost tonight. Which they did.
My logic says that betting them now you have one goal, getting Minn to win 2 of the next 4 games. Again, my logic would say/assume that to be a without a doubt winner they would need to win game 2. So what makes more sense, betting game two for +200 or betting Minn to win the series at -105? Each bet to me is making the statement that "I hope Minn wins this game". Because if they don't win game two, then where is the value in them in the series at +105? There is none. The ONLY way in my mind Minn had value at +105 in that sitaution is if they had won that second game, so it is an end justifying the means. To make them have value, they had to win at bigger odds at something that is actually easier to do, win a single game rather than win two more.
So now you have your beter odds, and about the same expected chance of winning the series (in my mnd) as you did before this game. Plus you got to see that Minn was game in their loss, and that if anything they were better than expected.
So now you have to look and see whether you still think Minn is worth it. You will definately see the odds for the next two games, and can also assume what game 5 odds will be after the way the odds moved tonight. Plus if Mussina does skip and they "concede" the Sanatna start, then -225/+208 wouldn't be outrageous after what we saw tonight, especially in a deciding game.
But that is the quandry I am in now. Even at the +160 I bet them at in game one for the series, if the predictable happens and they go five games, I would have been much better off not betting those odds either, and simply waiting to bet them in game 5.
Which when you think about it, makes betting them at -105 (or even +105) to win the series even less valuable.
So far the games have come out right on cue. The individual game odds may have seemed off, but in terms of where the series would be, it is dead on. Game 3 is the tricky one, basically am hoping Minn wins, then I can bet NYY as a decent dog against Santana, I am figuring +110 at least(hedged slightly in an elimination game). If the Yanks win I let my future bet ride, if they lose I cash my future bet that game Minn win series 3-1. So I have a built in scalp with a free roll in game five, a Minn win in that game is all gravy.
That is obviously best case scenario. The more predictable outcome is a loss in game 3, and a win in game 4 for Minn (which I can't bet) forcing a fifth game, where we will see how bad the odds on Minn were. Especailly after everyone and their brother hit tonight as they drove that line 60 cents towards the Yankees. I would imagine they do the same thing in that game especially if Mussina is up.
But this is what I do. Series prices. It might not always be the most mathematically correct way, but I am generally pretty good at determing odds. Although tonight's games odds threw it way off. The thing is, I think Mussina starts game 4 if Yanks loses game 3. Even tho he has not been great in the play offs, he is basically the only one with experience. SO in a must win he has to start.
So a lot of predictions and a lot of guess work. The smartest play would have probably been to bet NYY tonight in the series for whatever the best odds were. I think maybe +100? Because by waiting I am looking for the home run as those odds were predictably the best you could expect thinking they would win game 2 and game 3.
So my whole profit margin rests in the next game. It is an all or nothing play basically. If Minn loses, and the odds are as shtty as I expect them to be in game 5, then all is for not. Unless I take a stand on the Yankees in game 4, and hope they beat Santana to win the series 3-1. But that could be double trouble, because I could then lose both bets and collect nothing.
If you can't tell I like taking the gamble out of gambling. But all you need is one home run series to make the rest free.
Wow, that's a lot of words, wantit. My/our prediction for the new series price was right. And the bottomline still is I created a Twins ML +319 for myself last night. No regrets whatsoever. Math is beautiful. And fortunately most don't use it otherwise there wouldn't be many opportunities for those who do.
