How to spot shading

My thoughts on 2nd half bets. Bet the line that is at odds with the original line.

Take for example Cal and Oreg state last week. Cal up 28-7 at the half at Oreg St. I'm not sure what the 2nd half line was, but lets say it's Oreg St -3 (since the original line was Cal -6 or so).

The bet would be Cal +3. Okay, why.

1st, public is thinking that Cal was only supposed to win this game by 7, so if they take Oreg state -3 2nd half, they are essentially getting Oreg St +18 for the game.

2nd people who bet Cal -6 before the game will just lay off the 2nd half play. They have a win locked up. Why play Cal +3? If anything, they play Oreg St. -3 and try to middle of lay off.

3rd people who bet Oreg St +6 know they likely lost their bet. They don't bet Cal +3 because they like Oreg St in the first place. Also, now they might loose both bets. They layoff or try to double up on Oreg St -3 2nd half, in hopes they might even win both bets.

4th people who didn't play before the game want a bargain. They could have had cal -6 or oreg st +6 before kick-off, now at the half, they want value. Cal+3 looks bad, because they could have had -6 for the game. They lean towards OReg st. or no play.

Thus, my therory is that the line gets shaded and Cal -3 ends up having relative value.

Thoughts?

Many people believe that books hang a line that will get even action on each side. I don't believe that to be so. I believe they hang a line that will get one-sided action on the wrong side.

This is especially true for 2nd halves. For example, the Ohio St./Wisconsin total was 17.5 for the 2nd half. Most of the 2nd-half totals for the day had been going between 21 and 29. Wisconsin lead 14-13 at the end of the 1st half. Both teams averaged the same amount of scoring in the 2nd half as the first half in their games up to this point. Did the books know something the rest of us didn't?

Did the books see something that would cause them to hang a line that was a touchdown less than what most would have guessed? Wisconsin scores 10 points in the 2nd half and held Ohio St. scoreless.

I haven't studied second half totals much yet, but typically the second half total is pretty close the first half total.

If the game total is 50, the first half total is going to be something around 25. Suppose the two teams struggle offensively during the first half, and the first half score is 10-0. The books are going to lower the second half total a little, in all likelihood, from maybe 25 to 22 or so. Conversely, if the half time score is 35-21, they're probably going to raise the second half total a little bit, to maybe something like 28.

Another thing I think I've figured out: If the first half goes over the 1H total, the game total will go over 75% of the time too. If the first half stays under the 1H total, the game total will stay under the total 75% of the time too.

Later,
osu2winbig12

"Conversely, if the half time score is 35-21, they're probably going to raise the second half total a little bit, to maybe something like 28."

I've noticed this too osu. This is where a person can have an advantage over the book. There are teams (usually running teams) that lay off after running up the score in the 1st half. Yet the total for the 2nd half is just slightly less than the 1st-half total. I bet on the under in this case.