NFL Week 5.....Good Stuff To Ponder

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Beach House On The Moon
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I didn't write this....I found it on another forum...its worth a read.



NYG (+3.5) over DAL
--Let's see, NYG knocked off WAS as a 3 pt home dog by forcing 7 TO's, than won at home over lowly CLE 27-10 as a 3 pt fav. Then NYG went into GB's house as a 7 pt dog and kept GB to 7 points, including knocking out Favre, and won the game SU 14-7. But, the oddsmakers still think NYG is a dog to Dallas because of coach Parcells? What have you done for me lately? Yes, I've seen the stats on Parcells (thanks to reddog) in games after a bye and also against the NYG, but not this week, not against this NYG team. DAL is overrated from their 10 win season last year (they won with mostly smoke and mirrors) and this is a great spot for NYG to come in, play their dominating defense, and have Warner throw over DAL (like Minnesota did) and NYG to roll in this game. This line was made because DAL is the home team, but NYG is the better team, with the better QB, and Coach Coughlin is the coach of the year this season (well, tied with ATL's coach Mora, but he's got Mike Vick). DAL wins games because of Parcells getting the most out of his players against teams with equal or slightly above talent, but NYG is playing better than the kind of teams DAL beats, and NYG has the players (Warner, Barber, and the defense) to win this game. Coughlin has his team believing and so do I, NYG to win this SU. If NYG was the favorite, then different story because they would be "expected" to win, but they are better off as the underdog and they should come through.

SD (+2.5) over JAX
--Just like last week's JAX game, not sure of this dog, but you have to like the way SD has played defense the last two weeks (held Denver to 80 yards on 30 carries and last week they were very good against a banged up TEN team). If SD can avoid the turnover, I know they have the better offense and they are playing with confidence. JAX is a tough opponent, but I think SD's defense will make it tough for JAX to move the ball and SD should be able to move the ball on JAX if Brees has a good game. I'm a bit leery though of JAX's great defense. Last week, Brees didn't face much pressure, so how will he do this week against a much better defense? We will see, but for now I lean towards the home dog...also think this young JAX team might suffer a letdown after losing their 1st game of the season.

ARZ (+1.0) over SF
--Will continue to fade my beloved 49ers who won't win more than 3 games this season. ARZ has losses to 3 good teams (STL, NE, and ATL) and 1 win over NO so they are battle tested and getting better by playing the better teams. ARZ is playing great defense and the 49ers are having trouble scoring...leads me to believe the 49ers losing continues. But, I don't think Emmitt will have 100 yds rushing like he did last week and this ARZ team doesn't know what it takes to win 2 games in a row. It's going to be a close game, but I don't think the 49ers will win.

BAL (PK) over WAS
--Not really a dog, not even a line out yet, but since WAS is the home team, I guess Balty would be the dog in a pk line. Anyways, good value after Balty wasn't able to beat KC on MON night, but what's up with playing 2 straight National TV games for Balty as this is the Sunday nighter? It's possible that WAS will be up for this game since they are at home on National TV and Balty will have trouble being up for a 2nd straight week, but I think Balty wants to show they are better than losing to an 0-3 team at home on MNF. BAL still has a good defense and I don't trust WAS offense to win a game, so by default, I expect Balty to win this one. Should be a low scoring game, so will side with the better defense, Balty. Also, Balty has a great returner in Sams who could change the outcome of a game.


Other leans...


Atlanta over Detroit
--Atlanta is 4-0 and playing well, Detroit comes in off the bye, but have only won 1 game in 4 years on the road and I don't think they will be successful winning in Mike Vick's house. ATL has SD next week, so no chance for a possible sandwhich or look ahead. ATL playing great defense and if the defense continues to play well, they will win a lot of games. Possible let down after beating the division champs from a year ago (Carolina) in their last game, but Atlanta should still take care of business. Detroit can only win games if their defense keeps things tight and they are able to move the ball on offense, but I don't think they will move the ball all that well against ATL's defense. Like Atlanta to continue to win with Mike Vick on offense and their defense shutting down the other team's offense, this should be a good game to use as a teaser.

Indianapolis over Oakland
--The spread is a bit high for an NFL game, but betting against the Colts is a losing proposition this year. This team is destined to make it to the AFC Championship game and then we will see if they can get by NE. Indy is running and gunning and Oakland comes in after a terrible game by Collins in Houston. Can Collins bounce back and lead his team to victory this week? Not likely, Colts don't have a great defense, but they are very tough to stop on offense. OAK is a team that usually beats itself with penalties and turnovers and against Indy, giving them a short field is just asking for trouble. Indy should roll in this one as OAK plays another sloppy game and Indy has a bye next week, so they will play hard knowing they can rest next week.

Minnesota over Houston
--Houston won 2 games in a row for the 1st time in history, but facing MIN with Culpepper and Moss and a fresh MIN team coming off a bye will provide a more difficult challenge than an OAK team that beats itself with TO's and penalties. If MIN wants to prove it's one of the big boys in the NFC, this is a game they must win convincingly. MIN has the better talent and the better team and I like them to win this game and cover the small spread.

New England over Miami
--On paper, NE should win this game and deserves to be a 14 pt favorite, but who better to try to stop NE from setting the record for most wins in a row than the MIA franchise and their history of having the only undefeated team? MIA will play this game close and if NE's not careful, they could lose this game. This is Miami's season, they would love nothing more than to knock off NE and stop the streak. That being said, MIA has been awful on offense and is going to need to somehow stop NE from scoring 2 TD's or else NE will set the record for most wins. Miami's only hope is to win 13-10 or something like that, but I like Miami's chances of covering 13 points and I would buy the hook to 14. MIA always struggles at NE in the winter months, this is their shot to win when the weather is more playable. I like NE to win SU, but Miami has a great chance of covering this line because they will be playing with nothing to lose.

NY Jets over Buffalo
--Not sure about the spread as Buffalo has a tough defense, but QB Pennington is the type of player I want my money on. He makes good decisions as a QB and he wins. NYJ hasn't shown much with wins over CIN, SD, and MIA, but BUF isn't much better than those 3 teams and this should be another win for NY with Pennington running the offense. Jets have won 4 of their last 5 home games with BUF and covered 7 of the last 10 meetings overall.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland
--Cleveland has struggled on the road and Garcia has been very inconsistent. Like Pitt to get the win at home as their defense has been dominant, but still not sold on how good they are. Wins over OAK, MIA, and Cincy don't show much and still don't trust the rookie QB Rothlisberger to win games. If it wasn't for a late TD last week, Pitt may have lost to Cincy. I like Pitt to pull out the victory because of CLE's road struggles, but I think CLE keeps this game close and covers the 6.0 pt spread.

Seattle over St. Louis
--I agree with the forum (Damoney and others) that this is a great game for SEA to win. I thought that SEA would run away with this division and winning this game would give them a 2 game lead on the division, so it's very important. SEA's D has given up 7, 6, and 0 points in 3 games against NO, TB, and SF, not exactly elite teams, this will be their first test. SEA has the benefit of playing off the bye and having an extra week to prepare. STL is overrated (1-3 ATS, the only win coming over SF) and their offense isn't as good as it used to be. STL has wins over SF & ARZ and losses to ATL & NO. The home team has won the last 4 games of this series. STL isn't playing great defense and so I expect that SEA will be able to move the ball at will with Hasselback at QB and Alexander running the ball. SEA is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and I look for them to continue to play great ball and to win this game by DD as STL's defense can't stop anyone.







Games I'm undecided on...

Carolina at Denver
--I've been wrong on Carolina in all 3 games this year, just can't get a read on them. But, NFC champs for the last 3-4 years have not done well and so I would lean towards Denver winning, but I'd appreciate some opinion on this game from others (besides reading Hat and G's thread).

TB at New Orleans
--TB is 0-4 and not able to do anything on offense. New Orleans returns home after their embarrasing loss to ARZ and they have won 3 of the 4 division matchups with TB, albeit close games. This looks to be a low scoring game as TB can't do much on offense and their defense should hold down NO. Tough to make a play on a team that is playing as bad as TB, but NO is a chronic underachiever the past few years.

Tennessee at Green Bay
--No line up since both QB's are hurting and both teams are banged up. Low scoring game, but have to think GB figures out how to win this game at home, they can't start the season 0-3 at home, can they? Both teams lost to up and coming teams (NYG and SD), but TEN seems to be more banged up and it's tough to bet against Favre on MNF.
 

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