Great game to scalp???

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SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!
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This Yankee game was one of the biggest moves i've ever seen from -156 to -200. Great scalping opportunity, but I don't think any books got middled since the line never went back down.... or did they??
 

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A middle is when you win both bets and is more common in football. Team A -6.5, team B +7.5 and it lands on a 7 winning both bets. If you lay -110 on each team you always lose when the outcome is not Team A winning by 7.

A scalp is when you play Yankees for -160 and Minnesota for +185. Only one bet wins but you win irrespective of the outcome. This was indeed a classic, slow move all day with no reverses, obviously propelled by squares.
 

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A scalp is when you play Yankees for -160 and Minnesota for +185. Only one bet wins but you win irrespective of the outcome.

Actually (to be accurate) you only win money if the dog wins - if the favorite wins you break even.


wil.
 

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Wil:


Unless you adjust you bets accordingly where you will win the same no matter what the outcome. Just betting a little more on the favorite will accomplish this.
 

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wilheim said:
Actually (to be accurate) you only win money if the dog wins - if the favorite wins you break even.
wil.
Geez wil, you bet asymmetrically to guarantee a win. Of course you could slant toward the dog, even to 100% as you suggest.
 

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Geez wil, you bet asymmetrically to guarantee a win. Of course you could slant toward the dog, even to 100% as you suggest.
Take an average scalp of say 5 , 6 or even 10 cents - how to you guarantee winning money no matter what?

wil.
 

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Wil:



Minne -110
Yankess +120


Normally the play would be Minne $110 to win $100 / NYY $100 to win $120. Net profit of 10$ if the dog wins break even favorite



Now try this with the same lines Minne $115 to win $104.54 / NYY $ 100 to win $120. Net profit of $5.46 if the dog wins / Net profit of $5.00 if the favorite wins




Make sense Wil?
Hitman
 

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Yes that makes sense if you want to turn a 10 cent scalp into a 5 cent scalp. I guess it is a matter of preference. I suppose the guarantee of even small money would make it worth it. Most scalpers I have ever dealt with have gone for the full scalp by betting to win $100 or $1000 etc. and picking up the larger figure when the dog wins. Another factor is the size of scalps finding even 10 cents is not easy. 4, 5 or 6 cents in baseball is not an uncommon play for scalpers. Using your example betting $100 on NY at +20 and $110 on Minn at -110 you would win $20 every time NY won, and break even when Minn won. Which is more profitable over the long run?


wil.
 

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Wil: No you would only win 10$ if the yankees win. -110 +120


It's pretty much the same either way you go. Either 5 bucks every time (my way) or 10 bucks every other time (your way) I will tell you what I would do if it were me in this situation if you want me too.






Stick with me and you will be wearing diamonds as big as horseturds
 

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I screwed the math up in my first example:

Minne -110
NYY +120


Risk 115 to win 104.54 Minne
Risk 100 to win 120 NYY

It should have read if the dog wins you win 5$ (120 -115)
If the favorite wins you win 4.54$ (-100 +104.54)






I was still reeling from the Yankees game that is why I made the math error



Hitman
 

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Right my mistake on the $20 also. It should be $10 for this example. Mathamatically speaking there is not a lot of difference between the 2 plays over say 1000 games.

Between the 4 options the results are win either:
$4.54
$5.00
$10.00
$0.00


A bettor loses the chance for the $10 win to insure at least a $5.00 or $4.54 win. I guess anrgument could be made that the favorite will win more often enough to offset the (in this case) .46 cent difference you lose when the favorite wins. Essentially splitting hairs finacially speaking.




wil.
 

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Wil:



Do you do a lot of scalping?
 

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Do you do well? Are you ahead of the moves more times than not?
 

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Actually (to be accurate) you only win money if the dog wins - if the favorite wins you break even.
Of course the reverse can also true... the scalp can be set up to profit ONLY if the favorite wins.......

This is how I usually set them up myself.... Under this Scenerio SCALPERS would have cashed betting the:

YANKEES -160

& then taking just enough on the TWINS +185 to WIN the EXACT amount you risked on the YANKEES....

this way if Yankees win you make SCALP profit & if TWINS win you break even....

It is just easier to set up the scalp for the dog to win... But not smarter as Dogs will lose more often than favorites....
 

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No - I handcap and bet my own stuff.
wil I understand you may not seek them out... But if a TEN cent scalp appears in front of your eyes at the same time, say at OLY/PINNY & you happen to be well funded at both....

are you honestly saying you wont lock in the free money?:think: not logical....
 

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Sport Savant:



I've done it that way myself too. But my favortie way to do it is to set up the side where if the sharp book side loses (and 99% of the time it's the book that begins with the letter P) I will break even, or even lose a little depending on my risk tolerance that day. And if the sharp book side wins I win. Although lately the sharp book isn't doing so well.




Hitman
 

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personally I will usually do as you say & turn the scalp into a wager by choosing the side I like... The advantage of couse is you get the bet at a great price.....


And if the sharp book side wins I win.
you meant to say the 'not sharp' book here didnt you?
 

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Sport Savant:



Exactly! A couple of weeks ago I turned a bet (I think it was the Pirates vs the Cubs) into Pirates +1.5 +400. LOL Of course I took and early lead on the line and held it for about 3 or 4 hours but still it was fun.




It sure is nice to find someone who speaks the same language I do
 

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