This probably isnt any news to the Sharps out there but might be useful for the average player....
I am currently storm-stayed for work so I have plenty of free time on my hands to go over some stats from this years bases season. I came up with a very simple formula to give every pitcher a rating based on about 6 diffeent stats. I did this all manually so I could see first hand exactly what kind of numbers these guys are putting up. The one major conclusion I came too was that when it comes to HANDICAPPING a PITCHERS WIN/LOSS RECORD IS IRRELEVANT.
In fact pitchers with strong win/loss totals appeared to have taken more money and often turned out in an opposite result. I know its early but for next season towards the end of the year I am going to look strongly to pitchers with poor stats who have inflated win totals.
EX:
Mark Mulder 17-8 223 hits 225 IP 111 Earned Runs
Mulder had a tough time staying in the rotation towards the end of the season..He was BAD..I saw him pitch in T.O. and he looked awful.
Kenny Rogers 18-9 248 hits 211 IP 112 Earned Runs
With numbers like these you are bound to get smacked around sooner than later. How was The Gambler 18-9....He's terrible.
Anyways the list goes on but maybe what Im trying to say is when betting bases dont be intimidated by this particular stat. Look at the opposing pitcher and team and if the price is right consider that as an option.
Any thoughts??
PRJ :think:
I am currently storm-stayed for work so I have plenty of free time on my hands to go over some stats from this years bases season. I came up with a very simple formula to give every pitcher a rating based on about 6 diffeent stats. I did this all manually so I could see first hand exactly what kind of numbers these guys are putting up. The one major conclusion I came too was that when it comes to HANDICAPPING a PITCHERS WIN/LOSS RECORD IS IRRELEVANT.
In fact pitchers with strong win/loss totals appeared to have taken more money and often turned out in an opposite result. I know its early but for next season towards the end of the year I am going to look strongly to pitchers with poor stats who have inflated win totals.
EX:
Mark Mulder 17-8 223 hits 225 IP 111 Earned Runs
Mulder had a tough time staying in the rotation towards the end of the season..He was BAD..I saw him pitch in T.O. and he looked awful.
Kenny Rogers 18-9 248 hits 211 IP 112 Earned Runs
With numbers like these you are bound to get smacked around sooner than later. How was The Gambler 18-9....He's terrible.
Anyways the list goes on but maybe what Im trying to say is when betting bases dont be intimidated by this particular stat. Look at the opposing pitcher and team and if the price is right consider that as an option.
Any thoughts??
PRJ :think:
