Atlanta Braves +115 (Oswalt - R, Wright - R)
This is an unanticipated game five between the Astros/Braves for the right to advance to the National League Championship Series. Quite frankly, nobody in his right mind could have anticipated the Braves winning an unprecendented 13th consecutive Divisional title this season. Atlanta lost Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux and Javy Lopez in the offseason. The prior year, they said goodbye to veteran hurler Tom Glavine. Even with a depleted pitching staff, the Braves won the NL East crown easily over the defending world champions (Marlins) and the preseason favorite to win the title (Phillies). The Braves should NOT still be alive, after being down 5-2 at Houston yesterday against Roger Clemens, and an Astros team that had ripped off 19 straight home victories. Despite his success, Braves manager Bobby Cox has repeatedly been ripped that he has been "out managed" in the postseason. However, that may NOT be the case in this particular Divisional series. Yesterday, Houston skipper Phil Garner managed his team OUT of a victory by making several questionable moves. When Clemens tired and he had to go to the bullpen, Garner pulled off an inexplicable double switch which robbed him of an offensive star. In the 9th inning, Garner had already pulled his dominant closer, Brad Lidge, in favor of Russ Springer. The result was Atlanta picking up the game winning RBI in the 9th, with their #1 RBI man (JD Drew) at the plate. Why didn't Garner intentionally walk Drew with a base open?? As I said earlier, Atlanta should NOT still be playing tonight, especially since their starting pitching has been downright AWFUL. In the first 4 games of this series, Atlanta starters have a combined ERA of more than EIGHT (8.36 to be exact)!!! So why am I taking the Braves to defeat an Astros team that man-for-man is a better team? It is because Atlanta's Jaret Wright was one of the majors' leading hurlers at NIGHT, posting a 12-4 record with a 2.30 ERA. In game one, Wright pitched during the DAY where he has not been nearly as effective. In addition, Wright is EXPERIENCED in this type of situation, as he pitched game SEVEN of the 1997 World Series as a rookie starter with the Cleveland Indians. Wright will go against the NL's only 20 game winner, Roy Oswalt, who is pitching on just THREE days rest. You saw how Roger Clemens got tired yesterday on THREE days rest. I did a little research involving postseason starters who work on just 3 days rest. Playoff teams are a HORRIBLE 11-28 with a starter who is unrested!!! Speaking of horrible, the Astros are 4-14 in the playoffs since 1997. Yes, the Astros closed on a 33-10 flurry to make the playoffs. Yes, they are a much better postseason squad with star slugger Carlos Beltran in the middle of the lineup. Yes, they have a dominant closer in Brad Lidge who was #2 on his team in the ever important strikeout department. However, due to the injury to Andy Pettitte, Houston is forced to go with a starter on just THREE days rest. Should Atlanta win tonight? The answer is NO, when you consider they have LOST 12 of the past 15 playoff games at home, where they have NO homefield advantage and relatively small and quiet crowds. Should Atlanta even be in the playoffs? NO. But the Braves have played on the brink all season where they have had to scratch and claw. Will they once again pull off a rally despite astronomical odds? They really should NOT, but this has not been an ordinary season for a younger Atlanta team that has even showed a little emotion. Even veteran closer John Smoltz was excited enough to call yesterday's victory the biggest for the Braves in FIVE YEARS. Now that is saying alot.
This is an unanticipated game five between the Astros/Braves for the right to advance to the National League Championship Series. Quite frankly, nobody in his right mind could have anticipated the Braves winning an unprecendented 13th consecutive Divisional title this season. Atlanta lost Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux and Javy Lopez in the offseason. The prior year, they said goodbye to veteran hurler Tom Glavine. Even with a depleted pitching staff, the Braves won the NL East crown easily over the defending world champions (Marlins) and the preseason favorite to win the title (Phillies). The Braves should NOT still be alive, after being down 5-2 at Houston yesterday against Roger Clemens, and an Astros team that had ripped off 19 straight home victories. Despite his success, Braves manager Bobby Cox has repeatedly been ripped that he has been "out managed" in the postseason. However, that may NOT be the case in this particular Divisional series. Yesterday, Houston skipper Phil Garner managed his team OUT of a victory by making several questionable moves. When Clemens tired and he had to go to the bullpen, Garner pulled off an inexplicable double switch which robbed him of an offensive star. In the 9th inning, Garner had already pulled his dominant closer, Brad Lidge, in favor of Russ Springer. The result was Atlanta picking up the game winning RBI in the 9th, with their #1 RBI man (JD Drew) at the plate. Why didn't Garner intentionally walk Drew with a base open?? As I said earlier, Atlanta should NOT still be playing tonight, especially since their starting pitching has been downright AWFUL. In the first 4 games of this series, Atlanta starters have a combined ERA of more than EIGHT (8.36 to be exact)!!! So why am I taking the Braves to defeat an Astros team that man-for-man is a better team? It is because Atlanta's Jaret Wright was one of the majors' leading hurlers at NIGHT, posting a 12-4 record with a 2.30 ERA. In game one, Wright pitched during the DAY where he has not been nearly as effective. In addition, Wright is EXPERIENCED in this type of situation, as he pitched game SEVEN of the 1997 World Series as a rookie starter with the Cleveland Indians. Wright will go against the NL's only 20 game winner, Roy Oswalt, who is pitching on just THREE days rest. You saw how Roger Clemens got tired yesterday on THREE days rest. I did a little research involving postseason starters who work on just 3 days rest. Playoff teams are a HORRIBLE 11-28 with a starter who is unrested!!! Speaking of horrible, the Astros are 4-14 in the playoffs since 1997. Yes, the Astros closed on a 33-10 flurry to make the playoffs. Yes, they are a much better postseason squad with star slugger Carlos Beltran in the middle of the lineup. Yes, they have a dominant closer in Brad Lidge who was #2 on his team in the ever important strikeout department. However, due to the injury to Andy Pettitte, Houston is forced to go with a starter on just THREE days rest. Should Atlanta win tonight? The answer is NO, when you consider they have LOST 12 of the past 15 playoff games at home, where they have NO homefield advantage and relatively small and quiet crowds. Should Atlanta even be in the playoffs? NO. But the Braves have played on the brink all season where they have had to scratch and claw. Will they once again pull off a rally despite astronomical odds? They really should NOT, but this has not been an ordinary season for a younger Atlanta team that has even showed a little emotion. Even veteran closer John Smoltz was excited enough to call yesterday's victory the biggest for the Braves in FIVE YEARS. Now that is saying alot.
al watts
