More Good News For Kerry Bettors...

THE SHRINK · Oct 15, 2004

10/15/04

The Washington Post has an interview with Charlie Cook, a political guru in the same league as the late Izzy Stone. Insiders pay a lot of attention to Charlie Cook. He warns that the polls are missing the cellphone-only voters, a topic that has been discussed on this site repeatedly. He also says the election may be determined by events in Iraq. If it gets much worse, Bush is in deep trouble. Cook also confirms what I have heard from many, many sources: the undecideds ultimately break at least 2:1 for the challenger. An incumbent president has to be polling 49% to 50% going into the election. A 47% to 47% tie in the polls means the challenger wins. The interview is worth reading.

THE SHRINK

Dante · Oct 15, 2004

:toothless

ProPokerPlayer · Oct 15, 2004

Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

Dante · Oct 15, 2004

ProPokerPlayer said:
Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

ohh no..FISH will be mad :neenee:

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2004

Dante- Very soon i will be releasing my betting postition i have on this game to the public.

Quite frankly, really dont care who wins all that much..........although after watching the debates, my heart is with Kerry.

But like i said, no biggie either way.

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2004

As of right now this is how i sit........

A KERRY win nets me 2,720
A BUSH win losses me 30

Will be wagering a little more on Bush soon to put myself in a no lose situation.

Could have even had a BETTER position, but acted a little late on Shrinks advice and only managed to get around +163 average on KERRY and also didnt get the LOWEST offering on Bush that i should have...........still pretty happy with how i sit on this election though.

Remember, i am and always will be a grinder.

jjgold · Oct 15, 2004

This race will dot be decided until at least 24 hours after the polls close, it is that close.

I know many of bettors that have their life savings on Kerry

I have a few contacts inside the White House and they both told me to bet Kerry even more.

trytrytry · Oct 15, 2004

Fish

when did Shrink give that advise? I thought it was me who alerted this entire forum to the amazing overlay opportunity and scalping? On sept 16th. Or did the Shrink master scoop me on this a few days earlier???

Im sitting huge at +200 and +210 at Royal and Olympic, I scalped out 20% of it yesterday at -139 at Pinny when it was that low for a short time (maybe should have done more who knows!) . Im not sure when to do the rest. I also will lock in a sure profit if the numbers stay in this general range (ie no big news changing the election) . Ive got a bit of KErry +130 for sale at ehorsex but you never know on takers.
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal">09-16-2004, 10:55 AM </TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right> #1 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>trytrytry<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1098904", true); </SCRIPT>
RX Senior

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,777

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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>new polls all showing KErry as back even with Busch? +200 a good price?

looks like its back to a dead heat plus or minus a point.

+200 is a great price since it will be -140 for Bush in a few days Id think..... and you can play the other way to get a small profit.

bet royal has +200 not sure on others Ill look
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<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal">09-17-2004, 05:26 AM </TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right> #11 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>trytrytry<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1098914", true); </SCRIPT>
RX Senior

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,777

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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>seems like the public will get this down to a coin flip election yet again. so Take the +200 everywhere you can and then in a few weeks when "Bush!" is -130 you can buy out and lock in a great profit!

With the bad news about the future of Iraq from that top level report that hit yesterday I can see another 1-2% swing here short term anyway to KErry.

sorry did not mean to embarass Kurt Busch by confusing him with the prez......
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Fishhead · Oct 15, 2004

TRYTRYTRY- Yes, you may have been even more responsible than Shrinkwrap for providing this great play!!

HATS OFF TO YOU SIR!

NICE WORK!

Great advice and a great call on your behalf!

trytrytry · Oct 15, 2004

i feel better now. thanks fish.

Can someone do me a favor and buy some KErry at +130 from me at Ehorsex this weekend? Ill throw in a free backyard grill.

jeffry22 · Oct 15, 2004

friends at the white house?

hey jj, are you sure thats the white house - or the outhouse? for you kerry betters, it looks like he's headed back up to +200 soon

LockMaster · Oct 15, 2004

So The Shrink has been taking credit for pointing out the exceptional value. :think:
But it turns out it was try, try, try, not The Shrink. :neenee: And The Shrink has been there to constantly remind us what price he got and how sharp he was to do so. :biglaugh: He seemed to have forgotten the series dog great value?:think: Now Kerry excercises foot in mouth disease normally reserved for George W., by dragging in Cheney's split lickin daughter.

hno: And takes a nosedive overnight in the polls.:breakit: Hey, this worked out perfect, it is Try, Try, Try's fault. :aktion033 The Shrink should have consulted with The Identity.:manwh:

Halifax · Oct 15, 2004

trytrytry said:
Fish

when did Shrink give that advise? I thought it was me who alerted this entire forum to the amazing overlay opportunity and scalping? On sept 16th. Or did the Shrink master scoop me on this a few days earlier???

Im sitting huge at +200 and +210 at Royal and Olympic, I scalped out 20% of it yesterday at -139 at Pinny when it was that low for a short time (maybe should have done more who knows!) . Im not sure when to do the rest. I also will lock in a sure profit if the numbers stay in this general range (ie no big news changing the election) . Ive got a bit of KErry +130 for sale at ehorsex but you never know on takers.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal">09-16-2004, 10:55 AM </TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right>#1 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>trytrytry<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1098904", true); </SCRIPT>

RX Senior

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,777

</TD><TD class=alt1>

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>new polls all showing KErry as back even with Busch? +200 a good price?

looks like its back to a dead heat plus or minus a point.

+200 is a great price since it will be -140 for Bush in a few days Id think..... and you can play the other way to get a small profit.

bet royal has +200 not sure on others Ill look

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<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal">09-17-2004, 05:26 AM </TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right>#11 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>trytrytry<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1098914", true); </SCRIPT>

RX Senior

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,777

</TD><TD class=alt1>

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>seems like the public will get this down to a coin flip election yet again. so Take the +200 everywhere you can and then in a few weeks when "Bush!" is -130 you can buy out and lock in a great profit!

With the bad news about the future of Iraq from that top level report that hit yesterday I can see another 1-2% swing here short term anyway to KErry.

sorry did not mean to embarass Kurt Busch by confusing him with the prez......

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It's true ... Fishhead has been widely plagiarizing TryTryTry's work.

I remember quite well that TTT was the first to bring up the topic at the Rx, and in fact, it was actually discussed over at MW a day earlier than TTT's post on the subject.

I think Fishhead needs to return all the royalties that he's been collecting.

trytrytry · Oct 15, 2004

i can supply a PAYPAL email address for that royalty payment. Oh that’s right Paypal does not those types of transactions anymore.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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LockMaster · Oct 15, 2004

It appeared to me The Shrink was taking try, try, try's glory, and constantly giving us updates of his great insights. Fishhead was just singing the praises as usual.

But now it appears The Shrink has new people to follow besides BW. He has triple try and The Identity. In fact I would like to nominate to the elite status of The Try Try Try, or The Triple Try. :aktion033 Great job The Triple Try, but not good enough to buy Kerry for the free BBQ.:neenee:

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2004

I have NEVER denied not jumping on others bandwagon on this bet..........but, after watching the first debate i was pretty confident the line was coming down.

Halifax- You are correct, in NO WAY do i deserve any credit for those that scapled a profit on this...........TRYTRYTRY and SHRINK deserve the huge majority of praise on the RX forum for suggesting what a solid play this was as far as line value.

Fishhead · Oct 15, 2004

LOCKMASTER-- By the way, there are MANY sharpies on this forum and you will learn to sort out the real ones from the fakes as time goes by.

Continue to enjoy the RX forum to the fullest my friend.

bucsfan67 · Oct 15, 2004

ProPokerPlayer said:
Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

:aktion033

LockMaster · Oct 15, 2004

It would be difficult to attain your number #1 status having a bunch of stiffs posting. :howdy: I too am involved in our great presidential race. :finger: But as a scalper, not a participant in the election process. My best price on Republican is -1.05 Aug 2. :eatya Was nice run up, but it is time to be paid. I hesitate to post my earns, but will do well. :drink: Too bad this event is only every four years.:neenee:

What is Brown's ERA in Boston?:think: What about Arroyo vs. New York? Either teams middle relievers. Rain delays? This is set up for an OVER!!!:heh:

Dellehanty Dudeman · Oct 15, 2004

THE SHRINK said:
10/15/04

The Washington Post has an interview with Charlie Cook, a political guru in the same league as the late Izzy Stone. Insiders pay a lot of attention to Charlie Cook. He warns that the polls are missing the cellphone-only voters, a topic that has been discussed on this site repeatedly. He also says the election may be determined by events in Iraq. If it gets much worse, Bush is in deep trouble. Cook also confirms what I have heard from many, many sources: the undecideds ultimately break at least 2:1 for the challenger. An incumbent president has to be polling 49% to 50% going into the election. A 47% to 47% tie in the polls means the challenger wins. The interview is worth reading.

THE SHRINK

Talk about a square. That's about the same as some foolish bettor betting on a team because of some stupid silly statistical trend that has absolutely no relevance to the current game and spread. Go ahead people and bet Kerry early and often. It will just give me better prices for my Bush wagers.

Four more years for Dubya! Four more thousand for me!