John Hirschbeck is calling balls and strikes tonight in the Bost/NYY game, and that means one of the biggest strikezones in MLB will be the target for Brown and Arroyo. Hirschbeck's over/under record for his career is legendary - just for the past 8 years it is 94-149 (.387 pct). Many 'cappers claim that the line in recent years has adjusted for him, and to an extent that is true (32-33 last 2 years), but what isn't taken into account with these numbers is that this is his record vs the CLOSING line. Way too often, the line drops during the day up until gametime. His record the last couple of years vs the OPENING line is closer to his career mark. In any case, figure on a full run less per game on average with Hirschbeck as home plate ump. If you still like the over, I'll be back later with a prop wager that I play almost everytime Hirschbeck is umping, which has done very well for me this year and last.
Prop wager - play K. Brown o3.5 k's -120 (gameday) risking $250 and u4-115 (vw) risking $115 (this is Vw's max on this prop).
Why?
1. Brown has averaged 3.65 K's in his 23 starts this year. 14 starts he had 4 or more, and 9 he had 3 or less.
2. The Red Sox have the 3rd to the most K's in MLB this year, averaging 7.34/game.
3. The Sox hit much better at home, but this makes no difference - they still need to make 27 outs (24 if they win) regardless how they hit. Note: the Sox still averaged 7.22 K's/game at home.
4. The Sox are even worse vs righthanders, averaging 7.51 k's/game as opposed to only 6.99 k's per game vs southpaws.
5. Even if Brown only goes 6 innings, he needs only to record 4 K's out of the 18 outs.
6. Hirschbeck has averaged 14.5 strikeouts per game for the last 8 years umping, including 15/game this year. This is nearly 2 strikeouts per game more than the average ump.
7. This middle is profitable even if it hits only 1 out of 7 times. Brown has had exactly 4 K's 5 times this year or 1 out of every 4.6 starts.
8. The only downside I see is the weather. If the game is interrupted by rain for a significant length of time, the starters could get pulled after only a short stint. This small possibility is worth it IMO, though.
Why?
1. Brown has averaged 3.65 K's in his 23 starts this year. 14 starts he had 4 or more, and 9 he had 3 or less.
2. The Red Sox have the 3rd to the most K's in MLB this year, averaging 7.34/game.
3. The Sox hit much better at home, but this makes no difference - they still need to make 27 outs (24 if they win) regardless how they hit. Note: the Sox still averaged 7.22 K's/game at home.
4. The Sox are even worse vs righthanders, averaging 7.51 k's/game as opposed to only 6.99 k's per game vs southpaws.
5. Even if Brown only goes 6 innings, he needs only to record 4 K's out of the 18 outs.
6. Hirschbeck has averaged 14.5 strikeouts per game for the last 8 years umping, including 15/game this year. This is nearly 2 strikeouts per game more than the average ump.
7. This middle is profitable even if it hits only 1 out of 7 times. Brown has had exactly 4 K's 5 times this year or 1 out of every 4.6 starts.
8. The only downside I see is the weather. If the game is interrupted by rain for a significant length of time, the starters could get pulled after only a short stint. This small possibility is worth it IMO, though.
Incredibly, in the time it took me to post this play, the line at Gameday has skyrocketed all the way up to o3.5 -160. Unfortunately, this makes the middle no longer profitable. The over is still bettable IMO by itself, but not nearly what it was at -120. I would still take the o3.5 -160 rather than the o4 -115.
