Yankees/Red Sox Pick for the night

DrChen · Oct 18, 2004

It was really difficult to figure out tonight's game...there is so much value in the Yankee line whereas it seems the Red Sox have finally gained some momentum. I looked at the game from all angles, but what finally convinced me was the fact that the Yankees have to save their bullpen for the final 2 games if they lose tonight. That means, they'll need Mussina to go for at least 6 innings. They will likely keep him in even if he struggles. To the Yankees, winning this game would be nice, but hey WILL NOT sacrifice their bullpen to win this game. They know they have 2 games at home where they can close the series. The Red Sox will be fighting to stay alive and with their bats warming up, should take it tonight.

Red Sox -1 -105 $1000 to win $952.38

DrChen · Oct 18, 2004

In elimination games, Pedro has a 3-0 record with 3.25 ERA.

DrChen · Oct 19, 2004

Things pretty much went as expected this evening, with the BoSox pulling it out in extra innings. Wasn't expecting the Yankees to have Mussina for 7 innings, so I ended up getting a push on my bet and getting my money back. I've already jumped on the Yankees for Game 6. I don't see Schilling being able to have a stable enough ankle to get the control or power behind his pitches that he needs to. Lieber has been pitching really well as of late and with the help of the home crowd motivating the tired Yankee team, the Yankees will close it out tomorrow.

I placed 2 bets on Pinnacle for Yankees/Bosox Game 6 already :

1) Yankees +121 $1704/$2061.84
(Yes, this was the line right some moments after the game. I jumped on it immediately)

2) Yankees -103 $1695.36/$1645.98

So that's a total of $3,399.36 to win $3,707.82

This feels like such a solid bet with the Yankees at home and with NO team EVER to have pushed a series to a game 7 after having been down 0-3.

Good Luck

BaseballGuy · Oct 19, 2004

So the only reason you placed this bet was because no team has ever come back from 0-3? ONLY 2 teams have ever won games 4 and 5 after going down 0-3. Now three. Not a big test sample there, anything can happen in the MLB.

What if Boston wins in New York and loses Game 7 in Boston and keeps the stat alive?

I hope Boston wins it all.

GL

DrChen · Oct 19, 2004

Not just coming back 0-3, but also because of a healthy Lieber pitching against a weak Schilling (who is struggling to get his fastball consistently over 90mph). Schilling with the new shoes that they give him to help support that ankle still won't be able to push off like he would like to. That's going to lead to less control and more hittable balls for the Yankees.

BaseballGuy · Oct 19, 2004

Chen,

Do you honestly think They will keep Schilling in there if he looks weak? This is game 6 of a must win championship game. Not a meaningless game 2.

Boston's manager will pull him in a heartbeat if he feels even one run scored that shouldnt have.

DrChen · Oct 19, 2004

Who are they going to put in his place though? If Schilling has to leave early, Boston is going to be in trouble trying to find a pitcher to pitch for several innings. With the Yankees getting some good pitching out of Lieber, they won't likely have to rely as heavily on their bullpen.

BaseballGuy · Oct 19, 2004

Boston has a couple of rested pitchers.

Mendoza and Lowe are well rested. Each of them can go 3 innings. Embree is also rested, as he has only pitched 2 innings the past two days.

So thats about 8 innings of relief right there.

You can really ask the same question regarding the Yankees. Who would they put in? I mean it's not like Lieber is that great.

DrChen · Oct 19, 2004

Last reply as I'm going to bed soon....

They won't pitch Lowe because they will have to save him in case they do get to a game 7 and need a starting pitcher. Mendoza will likely only pitch 2 innings since he hasn't gone for more than 2 all year. Same thing goes for Embree. Quite simply, they are going to have a hard time backing up an injured pitcher.

Yes, Lieber is not amazing, but in his last 9 starts, the Yankees have gone 9-0. He has pitched an average of ~6 1/2 innings. Not too bad if you're asking for just a little over 3 innings to be pitched by the bullpen. Vasquez, Gordon, Quantrill, and Sturtze should be able to get them to the 9th and then Rivera should come out to finish things off.

I'm sure there are a million ways to look at how tomorrow will turn out, so this could go on forever. Whatever the case may be, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Dr.Pepper · Oct 19, 2004

from another Dr, i agree on your input DrChen, as for baseball guy - just because you make it quite obvious you are on the sox - dont bash a guy for giving good solid reasons. if you're not on it with him, wish him good luck, and move on.

BaseballGuy · Oct 19, 2004

Did I bash him?? No

I simply gave a logical explanation as to why I disagree.

This forum is about discussing the best plays correct?

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