Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees O 10 (Schilling - R, Lieber - R)
I will begin right from the database. Dating all the way back to 1997, the Yankees are 6-1 OVER AT HOME IN THE PLAYOFFS when trying to "close out" a postseason series. Thus, we have a tremendous percentage play on our hands this evening. The KEY to tonight's selection is that BOTH the Yankees and Red Sox have depleted bullpens after the 2 squads have played 26 thrilling innings in almost 11 hours. I will take you back to game ONE of this series at Yankee Stadium when Mke Mussina threw a PERFECT GAME through the first 6 innings, and yet the potent Red Sox offense rallied to score SEVEN runs. In that contest, the Yankees tallied TEN runs, so the precedent for a high scoring affair in the House That Ruth Built has been set. Of course, New York far and away has the highest payroll of any team in the majors, and they have used most of that money constructing a devastating offense that features an All Star at every position except secondbase. The mere fact that the Yankees were cast as the UNDERDOG to win the ALCS shows you just how frail their starting pitching staff is. I am fully aware that Jon Lieber posted a brilliant 11-3 record at home this campaign, and has managed to shutdown the mighty Boston bats the last 2 times he has faced them. In fact, Lieber surrendered just THREE hits in his game 2 victory where he went brilliant innings. But Lieber still has a career ERA of OVER FOUR when facing the Red Sox. On the other side of the equation, Curt Schilling has faced New York 10 different times in his career during the regular season and has a rather lofty 4.72 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Of course, Schilling gave up SIX runs in game 1 of the ALCS, re-agravating a dislocated tendon surrounding his right ankle in the process. Schilling has steadily worked that ankle back into shape, but nobody really knows how effective he will be this evening. Even when Schilling was mowing down batters during the regular season, he got tremendous offensive support. Going back to the database, I see that Schilling was a staggering 12-1 OVER FOR THE SEASON against WINNING teams!!! Jon Lieber just happened to be a tremendous 13-4 OVER play against teams like Boston who draw an average of at least 4 walks/game. I will wrap this up with a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-16) that dates back to 1997. The system takes teams like the Yankees OVER a posted total of 8'-to-10 after consecutive games where they stranded at least TEN runners on base. This system is completed when that squad has a TIRED bullpen that has thrown at least FOUR innings in 3 consecutive games. Due to both bullpens being depleted, I look for both Schilling and Lieber to go most of the way tonight, no matter how well they are pitching.
GOOD LUCK
I will begin right from the database. Dating all the way back to 1997, the Yankees are 6-1 OVER AT HOME IN THE PLAYOFFS when trying to "close out" a postseason series. Thus, we have a tremendous percentage play on our hands this evening. The KEY to tonight's selection is that BOTH the Yankees and Red Sox have depleted bullpens after the 2 squads have played 26 thrilling innings in almost 11 hours. I will take you back to game ONE of this series at Yankee Stadium when Mke Mussina threw a PERFECT GAME through the first 6 innings, and yet the potent Red Sox offense rallied to score SEVEN runs. In that contest, the Yankees tallied TEN runs, so the precedent for a high scoring affair in the House That Ruth Built has been set. Of course, New York far and away has the highest payroll of any team in the majors, and they have used most of that money constructing a devastating offense that features an All Star at every position except secondbase. The mere fact that the Yankees were cast as the UNDERDOG to win the ALCS shows you just how frail their starting pitching staff is. I am fully aware that Jon Lieber posted a brilliant 11-3 record at home this campaign, and has managed to shutdown the mighty Boston bats the last 2 times he has faced them. In fact, Lieber surrendered just THREE hits in his game 2 victory where he went brilliant innings. But Lieber still has a career ERA of OVER FOUR when facing the Red Sox. On the other side of the equation, Curt Schilling has faced New York 10 different times in his career during the regular season and has a rather lofty 4.72 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Of course, Schilling gave up SIX runs in game 1 of the ALCS, re-agravating a dislocated tendon surrounding his right ankle in the process. Schilling has steadily worked that ankle back into shape, but nobody really knows how effective he will be this evening. Even when Schilling was mowing down batters during the regular season, he got tremendous offensive support. Going back to the database, I see that Schilling was a staggering 12-1 OVER FOR THE SEASON against WINNING teams!!! Jon Lieber just happened to be a tremendous 13-4 OVER play against teams like Boston who draw an average of at least 4 walks/game. I will wrap this up with a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-16) that dates back to 1997. The system takes teams like the Yankees OVER a posted total of 8'-to-10 after consecutive games where they stranded at least TEN runners on base. This system is completed when that squad has a TIRED bullpen that has thrown at least FOUR innings in 3 consecutive games. Due to both bullpens being depleted, I look for both Schilling and Lieber to go most of the way tonight, no matter how well they are pitching.
GOOD LUCK
