You couldn't be in a better position(and apologies in advance if the following sounds too simplistic):
Clemens starting, a 20-game winner in back of him ready just in case, and still further behind, maybe the best reliever today(yes, he pitched a lot last night)-- there's history in the making here: Clemen's swansong in Boston, with a chance to put such a poignant exclamation mark to his career-- no games will ever have meant more to him than this one & the next ones in Boston.
Similar situation: i posted here my intentions of taking the Yankees & Over vs Schilling-- but i passed on the possibility of being on the wrong end of one of the great historic moments of baseball history-- a game which would mean so much to Schilling.........
Also, when you list your wins & losses at the end of the year, try this exercise: eliminate all the biggest wins and recalculate-- then likewise do the same with your biggest losses. Were you about even with or just a bit down when you removed them? My point is to not kill one of your potential big wins, especially with so many favorable conditions in your favor.
Now, if it was Munro starting instead, then for sure i would hedge.
If you must hedge, i would only do it to cover your original bet, and break even only if your original bet loses-- this way you don't deflate 15-1 to 7/5... what almost even money? Trust me, you would feel real bad afterwards with such a small profit-- even if you are the conservative, low-risk type.
However, there will likely be a potentially lucrative manner of hedging during the game!!
If your book will offer betting during the game, we can use last night's Boston-NY game as an example:
a similar equivalent'd be if we had say, Boston instead of Houston:
Boston jumped out to an early lead, the moneyline on the Yankees started at 4-1 and increased substantially innning by inning-- one inning later was 7/1,, then 9/1, all the way to 40-1-- which wasn't a bad bet to take with the overworked bullpen & the Yankees chance to put up a 10-run inning(a bit similar to current situation w/ St. Louis--except of course, that different from Boston, you have some of the best pitchers today on your side, & to boot proven to have dominated the Cardinals in the past-- this is why i wouldn't sully that great future bet you have going).
There were also other props, though lower-priced, that could've been used as hedges-- that would have to mathematically hit if the Yankees were to score enough to win...with the additional bonus that if instead Boston continued rampaging, you would also hit...great chances of middling your hedge!
adjusted run line for the game
total runs for the game
final number of hits for the game,
etc. etc. etc.
Let's now look at the negative / opposite scenario instead:
Say your future bet rode on the Yankees, who fell behind early-- Of course, we wouldn't take the Boston moneyline at 1/5--and it will be a bit tougher, but you can look at other props re game momentum, at odds anywhere between 4/5 & 3-1-- depending on how the game is going....
Hope this didn't muddle things up.........
Clemens starting, a 20-game winner in back of him ready just in case, and still further behind, maybe the best reliever today(yes, he pitched a lot last night)-- there's history in the making here: Clemen's swansong in Boston, with a chance to put such a poignant exclamation mark to his career-- no games will ever have meant more to him than this one & the next ones in Boston.
Similar situation: i posted here my intentions of taking the Yankees & Over vs Schilling-- but i passed on the possibility of being on the wrong end of one of the great historic moments of baseball history-- a game which would mean so much to Schilling.........
Also, when you list your wins & losses at the end of the year, try this exercise: eliminate all the biggest wins and recalculate-- then likewise do the same with your biggest losses. Were you about even with or just a bit down when you removed them? My point is to not kill one of your potential big wins, especially with so many favorable conditions in your favor.
Now, if it was Munro starting instead, then for sure i would hedge.
If you must hedge, i would only do it to cover your original bet, and break even only if your original bet loses-- this way you don't deflate 15-1 to 7/5... what almost even money? Trust me, you would feel real bad afterwards with such a small profit-- even if you are the conservative, low-risk type.
However, there will likely be a potentially lucrative manner of hedging during the game!!
If your book will offer betting during the game, we can use last night's Boston-NY game as an example:
a similar equivalent'd be if we had say, Boston instead of Houston:
Boston jumped out to an early lead, the moneyline on the Yankees started at 4-1 and increased substantially innning by inning-- one inning later was 7/1,, then 9/1, all the way to 40-1-- which wasn't a bad bet to take with the overworked bullpen & the Yankees chance to put up a 10-run inning(a bit similar to current situation w/ St. Louis--except of course, that different from Boston, you have some of the best pitchers today on your side, & to boot proven to have dominated the Cardinals in the past-- this is why i wouldn't sully that great future bet you have going).
There were also other props, though lower-priced, that could've been used as hedges-- that would have to mathematically hit if the Yankees were to score enough to win...with the additional bonus that if instead Boston continued rampaging, you would also hit...great chances of middling your hedge!
adjusted run line for the game
total runs for the game
final number of hits for the game,
etc. etc. etc.
Let's now look at the negative / opposite scenario instead:
Say your future bet rode on the Yankees, who fell behind early-- Of course, we wouldn't take the Boston moneyline at 1/5--and it will be a bit tougher, but you can look at other props re game momentum, at odds anywhere between 4/5 & 3-1-- depending on how the game is going....
Hope this didn't muddle things up.........
Pinny reversed themselves: they did have it from the first inning on... but only money-line betting..........
shortbus: sorry about the outcome, though Cards at +200 or so, depending on which of the early innings you would've took it-- would've been useful to you......
Further still, when i lived in Vegas, if for some reason the Cardinals had fallen further behind, then @ the next to last inning or so i could always find someone to buy that almost worthless prop/hedge before it expired......
Good luck always.......
shortbus: sorry about the outcome, though Cards at +200 or so, depending on which of the early innings you would've took it-- would've been useful to you......
Further still, when i lived in Vegas, if for some reason the Cardinals had fallen further behind, then @ the next to last inning or so i could always find someone to buy that almost worthless prop/hedge before it expired......
Good luck always.......
