from covers.com
<!--StartFragment --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=290 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%" colSpan=2>MNF: This home dog bites </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 width="100%" colSpan=2>Jason Lake</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Finally, it's Week 7 in the NFL, and we have our first Monday Night Football home dog of the year.
Too bad it's the Cincinnati Bengals.
Betting the home dog on Monday nights used to be one of the easiest ways to pad your bankroll. With hometown pride at stake in the glow of the national spotlight, lowly regarded teams often outperform expectations. It's about the only thing the woeful Bengals have going for them against the powerhouse Denver Broncos.
Unfortunately for Cincy supporters, the old adage doesn't hold water anymore. Since MNF first kicked off in 1970, home underdogs were 98-56-4 against the spread (ATS) up until Christmas Day, 2000. Not a bad haul. It's been downhill since then, though: 0-3 ATS in 2001, 3-4 in 2002 and a wallet-shredding 1-5 last year.
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The books have grown wise to the Monday home dog trend over the years, adjusting their lines accordingly and making it harder to ride the trend. This year is different, as the Bengals have been shifted from +5 1/2 at the open to +7 the day before the big game.
The way Cincinnati has played this year, it would take a big leap of faith in an old trend to go against the Broncos. This matchup clearly favors Denver on paper. The Broncos are the top rushers in the league, while Cincy is ranked dead last at stuffing the run. The Bengals also bring the 25th-ranked offense in the NFL against the league's best defense.
A closer look at the trend also shows the Bengals haven't risen to the occasion when they get their moment in the sun. They've been featured on MNF just twice as home dogs, going 0-2 ATS. For that matter, Cincinnati is 7-15 ATS overall on Monday nights. The only situation that favors the Bengals is when they lay points at home, going 3-1 ATS in those games.
If you need any other reason to dismiss the old Monday night home dog rule, consider that this is the first time the Bengals have hosted an MNF tilt since 1989. That was back when Boomer Esiason was handing the ball off to James Brooks.
Oddsmakers also have a total of 43 1/2 pegged for this game.
<!--StartFragment --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=290 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%" colSpan=2>MNF: This home dog bites </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 width="100%" colSpan=2>Jason Lake</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Finally, it's Week 7 in the NFL, and we have our first Monday Night Football home dog of the year.
Too bad it's the Cincinnati Bengals.
Betting the home dog on Monday nights used to be one of the easiest ways to pad your bankroll. With hometown pride at stake in the glow of the national spotlight, lowly regarded teams often outperform expectations. It's about the only thing the woeful Bengals have going for them against the powerhouse Denver Broncos.
Unfortunately for Cincy supporters, the old adage doesn't hold water anymore. Since MNF first kicked off in 1970, home underdogs were 98-56-4 against the spread (ATS) up until Christmas Day, 2000. Not a bad haul. It's been downhill since then, though: 0-3 ATS in 2001, 3-4 in 2002 and a wallet-shredding 1-5 last year.
<!--StartFragment -->
The books have grown wise to the Monday home dog trend over the years, adjusting their lines accordingly and making it harder to ride the trend. This year is different, as the Bengals have been shifted from +5 1/2 at the open to +7 the day before the big game.
The way Cincinnati has played this year, it would take a big leap of faith in an old trend to go against the Broncos. This matchup clearly favors Denver on paper. The Broncos are the top rushers in the league, while Cincy is ranked dead last at stuffing the run. The Bengals also bring the 25th-ranked offense in the NFL against the league's best defense.
A closer look at the trend also shows the Bengals haven't risen to the occasion when they get their moment in the sun. They've been featured on MNF just twice as home dogs, going 0-2 ATS. For that matter, Cincinnati is 7-15 ATS overall on Monday nights. The only situation that favors the Bengals is when they lay points at home, going 3-1 ATS in those games.
If you need any other reason to dismiss the old Monday night home dog rule, consider that this is the first time the Bengals have hosted an MNF tilt since 1989. That was back when Boomer Esiason was handing the ball off to James Brooks.
Oddsmakers also have a total of 43 1/2 pegged for this game.
