Am I Wrong About This Prop>>>>>>>?

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2004

Maybe I'm wrong, but percentage~wise, doesn't it seem like this prop is much in your favor..............??

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=row><TD class=warning noWrap colSpan=49>Last Play of Game

Any Quarterback Rush vs Any Other Play(QB Takes Knee Is A Rush)

</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD class=center noWrap>10/25/2004

21:05

</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT ondblclick=this.checked=false; onclick="addS(this,'864780V',-180,0)" type=radio value=SV864780_M name=side9>000 Any Quarterback Rush (-180)

<INPUT ondblclick=this.checked=false; onclick="addS(this,'864780H',150,0)" type=radio value=SH864780_M name=side9>000 Any Other Play (150)

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Yes, I do know that at times the team/QB with the lead will kneel on the ball in some occasions, but will all possibilities considered at the end of a game, I don't think this situation comes up nearly as much as all others......

Bismarck · Oct 25, 2004

Yes, you are wrong. QB kneel ends more games than not. I cannot believe that people can simply guess on a prop like this.

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2004

Bismarck, I disagree. More games do not end on QB kneels than anything else. As a matter of fact I'd say it's not even close. First you have to take into account that it's probably 50-50 that the team with the lead has the ball last compared to the team behind having the ball last. Obviously we know the team that is behind is not going to kneel on the ball. Then you take into account that even if the team with the lead does have the ball last, many times the lead isnt large enough so they are trying to gain those last 1 or 2 1st downs to run out the clock, whick turns out many times to be the very last play when there is less time on the game clock than there is on the 40-second clock, therefore ending the game with teams walking off of the field as time ticks down........

peteep · Oct 25, 2004

I agree Hache....looks like there is some value there.

TheGeneral+ · Oct 25, 2004

if you like Denver, Denver by 4-6 +1050 and 7-9 +960 looks ok.

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2004

I agree General, but for me it's a no play on the side tonight.Good luck with whatever you choose though........

jwblue · Oct 25, 2004

For tonight..I would not take it. This game is likely going to be a rout. So the odds are less than 50/50 if you take into account Cincy will be desperate to get down the field and probably give up the ball.

IS

Noreaga+ · Oct 25, 2004

if u want a prop take
first score will be:

touchdown -160
Fieldgoal +130

take the FG prop tonight

peteep · Oct 25, 2004

I personally like this one:

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game - Extra pt & 2 pt conversions do not count DEN@CIN - No +165

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2004

I seem to win off of the field goal prop quite a bit Noreaga when I do take it. However, tonight I do not like it.Thanks for the input though.....you too InSpades......Not too sure about that one Peteep. Teams scoring 3 consecutive times happens quite a bit, unless you just feel strongly about tonight it not happening.......

Bismarck · Oct 25, 2004

Hache Man said:
Bismarck, I disagree. More games do not end on QB kneels than anything else. As a matter of fact I'd say it's not even close. First you have to take into account that it's probably 50-50 that the team with the lead has the ball last compared to the team behind having the ball last. Obviously we know the team that is behind is not going to kneel on the ball. Then you take into account that even if the team with the lead does have the ball last, many times the lead isnt large enough so they are trying to gain those last 1 or 2 1st downs to run out the clock, whick turns out many times to be the very last play when there is less time on the game clock than there is on the 40-second clock, therefore ending the game with teams walking off of the field as time ticks down........

There really isn't any sense in arguing, you are wrong. QB kneel does end an NFL game more often than not. I have stats on this, and I'm fairly certain that you don't.

I don't use this term often, but this is a "sucker bet." Most people change the channel before the final kneel-down, and it doesn't register in their minds quite the same as watching other plays to end the game.

HacheMan · Oct 25, 2004

Wasn't "arguing" Bismarck, just disagreeing....

I would love to see the stats/information that you say you have on this though sometime. Shoot me an email sometime.........

SportSavant · Oct 25, 2004

WTF.... post the stats here please....

peteep · Oct 25, 2004

FWIW, in yesterday's action 10 of 13 games ended on a kneel. Very small sample to judge from, but I must admit I would have thought otherwise.

Bismarck · Oct 25, 2004

Hache, I tried getting your email, but it will not allow me. This place really needs to add a PM feature. Anyway, I only began tracking this year. The sample is certainly not big enough to warrant making any plays yet, but it is enough to be fairly certain that QB rushes end more games than not. So far this year I have 63-38, or %62.376.

Bismarck · Oct 25, 2004

BTW, that comes to roughly (-166). Like I said, it isn't a very large sample yet, but it would seem that -180/+150 is probably an accurate line.

Journeyman · Oct 26, 2004

hache- i would have to agree with Bismarck here...i think more often than not we see 'the knee'...I would guess 60% atleast....I didn't understand this prop when you first posted it...I give up on props personally I am getting killed on prop bets...killing sides but can't hit a props more often than not...

Tonight, i had Droughns over 112...he gets to 110 with a whole qtr left and doesn't get another carry...

Earlier i had YES a score in the 1st 6:30...damn game first score was at 6:34 ...

Anyway, I am done with props, I have found they get me in trouble !!!

HacheMan · Oct 26, 2004

Thanks for the input guys. I honestly just "jumped" to conclusions probably because as Bismarck said, most people just never pay attention to that last play. I was initially amazed after I looked to see it myself after Peteep posted it, but then after I thought about it it did make sense. Thanks for clearing up my apparent "weary" mind before I ever considered this wager again....... !!

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