I was all set to play STL and the Under. Stl good at home winning 67% of their games vs. Boston winning only 54% of their road games. Pedro only 8-7 on the road. Teams slowing it down towards the under lately. Umpire is 10-24 to under, weather with this wind 8-17 towards under, DH gone making the lineups less potent, less of a hitters park than Boston.
But not so fast, Suppan is only 7-8 at home, against playoff teams on the season he is only 3-6. Last 5 home games he has given up 19 runs in 25.66 innings or 6.67 runs per game. On the season his era is 4.56 at home vs. 3.54 on the road. Does have a slightly better era at night 3.82 vs 4.48 in the day.
Pedro is 5-6 vs playoff teams, 3-5 vs playoff teams on the road, era is a higher 4.68 on the road vs 3.37 in Fenway. Last five road games he started he gave up 19 runs in 32 innings. 5.343 per game. Pedro's numbers are better and he didn't get to get outs pitching to pitchers.
Each pitcher had one clunker in those five games, Pedro giving up 8 runs in 8 innings vs NYY and Suppan giving up 7 runs in 3.66 innings vs Houston. Throw those out and Pedro is still better by 4.125 vs 4.91. Pedro also pitched against better competiion, nyy twice, ana, oak and tampa vs suppan with houston twice, az, san diego and pitt.
Pitching nod is to Pedro, Boston still better hitting, bullpens should be fresh if needed, home team to Stl. I have to take my chances with the dog.
Total, those pitching stats for both starters tells me to play the over as both are higher in their road and home situations by almost 1/2 a run than their seasonal stats. Defense for Boston is also weaker with Ortiz at first which could lead to more outs for STl.
4* Boston + 115
4* Boson over 9.5
3* Boston / Boston over
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
But not so fast, Suppan is only 7-8 at home, against playoff teams on the season he is only 3-6. Last 5 home games he has given up 19 runs in 25.66 innings or 6.67 runs per game. On the season his era is 4.56 at home vs. 3.54 on the road. Does have a slightly better era at night 3.82 vs 4.48 in the day.
Pedro is 5-6 vs playoff teams, 3-5 vs playoff teams on the road, era is a higher 4.68 on the road vs 3.37 in Fenway. Last five road games he started he gave up 19 runs in 32 innings. 5.343 per game. Pedro's numbers are better and he didn't get to get outs pitching to pitchers.
Each pitcher had one clunker in those five games, Pedro giving up 8 runs in 8 innings vs NYY and Suppan giving up 7 runs in 3.66 innings vs Houston. Throw those out and Pedro is still better by 4.125 vs 4.91. Pedro also pitched against better competiion, nyy twice, ana, oak and tampa vs suppan with houston twice, az, san diego and pitt.
Pitching nod is to Pedro, Boston still better hitting, bullpens should be fresh if needed, home team to Stl. I have to take my chances with the dog.
Total, those pitching stats for both starters tells me to play the over as both are higher in their road and home situations by almost 1/2 a run than their seasonal stats. Defense for Boston is also weaker with Ortiz at first which could lead to more outs for STl.
4* Boston + 115
4* Boson over 9.5
3* Boston / Boston over
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
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