THE VALUE OF BETTING a 2 or 2 1/2 POINT FAVORITE OR UNDERDOG IN FOOTS.....

I am sure many of you already know this, but I thought I'd quantitate the VALUE of betting a 2 or a 2 1/2 point Favorite or Underdog in Football, either College or the NFL...

If one were to bet the Money Line on a Football Team that is a 2 1/2 point favorite, it would be between $1.40 to $1.50 depending on a number of variables (Pro vs. College, the Total for the Game, etc)...

But if you lay the points, you are only risking $1.10 to $1.00 and since MOST FOOTBALL GAMES are decided by at least 3 points (as points are scored in 3's and 7's for the most part) the gambler has a HUGE edge by laying the points vs. The Money Line in these instances because RARELY will the points matter...

Conversely speaking, IF you LIKE the DOG and can NET a return of plus $1.25 or $1.30, I'd forego the 2 or 2 1/2 points (particularly in the NFL since College numbers fall more randomly) and take the Money Line...

And guess what we have for tomorrow?

North Texas - 2 1/2 over UL Lafayette

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK

If you really believe that then does that mean you think both -2.5-110 and ML +130 have value?

Let's see if your logic really holds up to math. Pinnacle right now has:
-2.5-108 or ML -137
+2.5-102 or ML +125

At -108, you need to win 51.9% to breakeven
At -137, you need to win 57.8% to BE

At -102, you need to win 50.5%
At +125, you need to win 44.4%

So the gap on the favorite is 5.9% and on the dog 6.1%.

So the issue is whether there is more or less than roughly a 6% (1 out of 16.5) chance of falling as the fave winning by 1 or 2.

Anyone with a CFB database know the answer?

Good Post...

The game falling on 1 or 2 for the team that is favored by 2 1/2 is clearly less than 6%...

It's not even close...

Ken

Shrink great post, great topic

But to include the term "A huge edge" by doing this method? This concept is worth about 1% in my experience and that is great start a very good start. But not a Huge edge. If you look at past scores and %'s and such you might find that this can get you out of the vig basically get you to even in the long term which is a good start, add some handicapping and you can then make some moeny. Problem is the money line has vig built in them also so you get the +120 or +125 but the true odds long term might be +125 or +130 to break even. so its close by not a huge edge.

We have run these numbers over and over again.

Games where the line is -1 to -2.5 where the points really matter (when a team wins SU but doesn't cover)

Overall since 1985 (not including this year) There were 744 games that closed -1 to -2.5. (My source that is) Of those 744 games 27 were won by the fave and the fave didn't cover the spread, and 8 games were pushes. That is 35 games of 744, not quite 5% (4.7) where you would have been 'polish middled'. So a push alone doesn't make you a loser in this way of betting, ANY time a fave wins beats your Dog ML play.

So according to my CLOSING numbers, you have about a 4.7% failure rate if you bet both sides. The fave minus the points or the dog ML. Not quite enough to break even at standard ML odds for dogs in those perameters.

But in terms of bettting EITHER or OR, then taking the fave minus the points OR the dog ML is a 'smarter" way to play it. Not playing the ML fave OR the dog PLUS the points.

Still very difficult to determin a concrete value as lines fluctuate dramtically, as do ML odds at varying books. Not to mention that there can many differing spreads as well. You might get -1 at one book, and a +135 (+2.5 equivelant) ML at another joint. Not worth it to try and "middle" it but definately offers two values either way. Picking the right side is the ultimate challange. We have seen several games lie this alread this year.

Generally speaking BEFORE the game BOTH sides seemd 'obvious' to those betting them. But we all know in the real world of betting they aren't.