How many points are needed for an edge in a NBA middle on a Spread?

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
88
Tokens
There is no standard amount of points between edge and no edge. There are many factors, ie. price(vig), which number(s) are included, etc.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,168
Tokens
Hedging/Middling at halftime of a basketball game is one thing, but trying to simply middle an basketball outright from the get~go isnt a good idea in my opinion. Even if you have 3 points to middle, (which would be great in football of course) your chances aren't very good........
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,280
Tokens
Hache Man said:
Hedging/Middling at halftime of a basketball game is one thing, but trying to simply middle an basketball outright from the get~go isnt a good idea in my opinion. Even if you have 3 points to middle, (which would be great in football of course) your chances aren't very good........
Hache, please tell me you are only kidding...
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
Joined
Mar 1, 2002
Messages
42,730
Tokens
Seems like many pros are very fond of hoop middles. I can see why.
 

Home of the Cincinnati Criminals.
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
19,499
Tokens
i have 2 points now, waiting for it to climb a bit more. it is a game that should be very close also
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
If one does a search, you will find that I have discussed this in detail many times.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,280
Tokens
Hache Man said:
D2.......what % of basketball games are decided by 1-2 points difference than the spread?
Well, that's quite a loaded question. Though I can simply say, FAR more than enough to make any 3 point middle (at -110 odds -- or even worse) extraordinariilr profitable.

David Matthew's rule of thumb of 1.5 points is pretty good. That is for NBA -110's and you would want at least that. Certainly, some numbers are better than others and you might be able to figure certain game subsets better than others. But as a rule of thumb, that works well. You can then adjust from there based on the vig. 1.5 points for 20 cents total is roughly 6.7 cents per half point. So you might just want to simplify further and figure you'll pay 6 cents per half point. (i.e. -6.5+104 and +7-110 would qualify).

So 1.5 point full cost middle are profitable. 2.0 point middles are very profitable. 3.0 point middles would make anyone a fast millionaire in any NBA season if the limits are good enough.

Basketball games hit the spread with predictably regukarity. It is really quite remarkable.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
Joined
Mar 1, 2002
Messages
42,730
Tokens
Basketball games hit the spread with predictably regukarity. It is really quite remarkable.<!-- / message -->
Yes it is. I like to give kudos to the refs. :coffeetim
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,168
Tokens
D2, I understand completly, but most of us don't have time to sit and catch those line changes. Secondly, just pick winners and forget all of the extra work! LOL, messing with ya! As for the subject we were on, I wanted to say you pick 5 games tonight and I'll give you a 2 point middle in each one & we'll see what happens....BUT, whichever one of us comes out ahead tonight obviously won't tell the whole storry.
 

Home of the Cincinnati Criminals.
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
19,499
Tokens
the game is MIN/Denver i got Denver last night at a PK
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,280
Tokens
Hache Man said:
D2, I understand completly, but most of us don't have time to sit and catch those line changes. Secondly, just pick winners and forget all of the extra work! LOL, messing with ya! As for the subject we were on, I wanted to say you pick 5 games tonight and I'll give you a 2 point middle in each one & we'll see what happens....BUT, whichever one of us comes out ahead tonight obviously won't tell the whole storry.
5 games is fine, but remember for standard -110 games I only need to hit more than 1 out of 20 to profit. So give me 2 full points for 5 games per night for 4 nights and I would say with at least 90% certainty I will hit at least one of them.
 

Ron Mexico. #7
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
2,206
Tokens
BIGBET1234

Forget going for the middle here..If you want to double up, wait until halftime then either hedge out or hold on.....Smart approach....
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
bigbet1234 said:
the game is MIN/Denver i got Denver last night at a PK
You have a very nice middle if you can find +2.5..............which you can at SKYBOOK right now with the free half point promo.
 

Home of the Cincinnati Criminals.
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
19,499
Tokens
i see it at 2.5 at bowmans now. waiting to see if i get 3
Fishhead said:
You have a very nice middle if you can find +2.5..............which you can at SKYBOOK right now with the free half point promo.
 

New member
Joined
Jun 20, 2004
Messages
4,663
Tokens
I think middling totals in the NBA is VERY prosperous I only need 2 points
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,514
Messages
13,452,098
Members
99,417
Latest member
selectionpartners
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com