ESPN Article..." What Kind Of Handicapper Are You? "

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Beach House On The Moon
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What kind of handicapper are you?
Jay Cronley
Special to ESPN.com




Here's a good question to ask yourself: Why are you gambling?

There are two kinds of handicappers, handicapper being the best and brightest euphemism for gambler.

Handicappers don't come home smoky and guilty. Handicappers carry briefcases and laptops, not totes and lucky charms. Handicappers carry notes, not ATM receipts.

Handicappers drink water, not whiskey. Handicappers use multi-colored pens, not borrowed pencils.

One type of handicapping is technical, which is probably another euphemism. What connected with gambling doesn't have two sides, technical handicapper most likely standing for system-playing mother.

Technical handicapping is where you base a bet solely on past occurrences.

Every week on the national tube you see people like Hank Goldberg saying stuff like he's betting a football team because since 1978 these guys have covered as a double-digit dog 18 of 26 times after losing at home to a left-handed center.

With technical sports handicapping, you don't have to think much, a definite positive. But betting on sports history assumes that the individuals don't matter, it takes for granted that some teams are simply bound by ancient curse to lose every third road game 57 percent of the time.

Some technical sports handicapping is simply common sense turned into a chart or graph: Most teams traveling 2,750 miles to play in 100 percent humidity figure to be slightly unsettled. The thing is, pal, bookmakers were not born and then dropped on their heads. The technical angles that matter in sports handicapping are factored into the point spreads.

Isn't all horse-race handicapping purely a technical endeavor?

What is there to a horse race except finding a winning trend from history? Isn't horse racing nothing but history and the occasional chiseler?

Everybody has access to the same information going into a horse race. There are no hidden numbers, beyond the standard secret workout now and again. There's a 70 Beyer for everybody to see, the fractions, the trainer stats.

Yet one person wins and another person with the same information loses.

Analyzing a horse race is very much like looking at stock market information, a company's balance sheet. It's personal. I used to be a stockbroker and learned one thing.

Buy high.

It's the interpretation of the numbers that matters, not the mindless faith in the obvious.

Playing the horses is like anything else that requires a talent.

There is the misconception that a lot of talent goes unappreciated, that publishers and movie studios and record executives do not under any circumstance want to make a ton of money.

Skill is usually rewarded.

How can you tell if you have a talent for picking winners at the horse races?

You make more money than you lose.

If you usually come out around even over the course of time, then horse racing is your hobby.

Lose consistently and you're a sucker
 

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If Jay Cronley were a superhero, he'd be called "Obviousman" ... <yawn>


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