For many years, I have long felt that betting on a road favorite is the weakest of the four positions (i.e. HF, HD, AF, AD) that the player can place himself or herself in. As a result, my tendency is to be extremely cautious when considering playing a road favorite. Going into this past weekend, in college this year, only 39% of road favorites had covered and results in the NFL won't be far off but perhaps at bit higher. There are many reasons for this, many of which are not necessarily fundamental but intangible like crowd support, noice, familiar surroundings, overall emotion. Teams play better when within there own comfort zone. Additionally, with parity now the norm in the NFL and this year, the seemingly lack of dominant teams in college football, the divisional and in conference games become much closer. With all that being said, as each season winds down, college in November and the pros in December, many schools will be playing for bowl berths and as for the pros, many teams will be looking to secure playoff berths while others will be playing out the string. Thus, there will be times when the road favorite may be strong enough and motivated enough to overcome the added impost. But in the long run, it is hard to show a profit when playing too many road favorites, so beware and be careful.
There are exceptions but you're right. I think that's the biggest difference between pros and squares.
The squares see a # next to an offensive team and the wheels start turning in their head.
"Man... <insert road favorite here> is going to smoke these bums... They'll double the spread"
Then they place the bet and watch the game and wonder why the team barely squeaks out a win at the end.
I used to be like that... long ago. Now I pull up the lines and the first thing I look for are those barkin' dogs!
The squares see a # next to an offensive team and the wheels start turning in their head.
"Man... <insert road favorite here> is going to smoke these bums... They'll double the spread"
Then they place the bet and watch the game and wonder why the team barely squeaks out a win at the end.
I used to be like that... long ago. Now I pull up the lines and the first thing I look for are those barkin' dogs!
Good Topic...
I think it's fair to say that there is a whole lot of solid information out there in this forum for gamblers to digest...
It's amazing how much stronger one can become by reading some of these threads...
With that said, I also FEAR betting the Road Favorite at times, but in reality, it's all about the NUMBER for me, whether the game is played at Home or on Pluto...
THE SHRINK
I think it's fair to say that there is a whole lot of solid information out there in this forum for gamblers to digest...
It's amazing how much stronger one can become by reading some of these threads...
With that said, I also FEAR betting the Road Favorite at times, but in reality, it's all about the NUMBER for me, whether the game is played at Home or on Pluto...
THE SHRINK
Impossible to argue against results. It is critical to avoid road favs in all sports. Obviously there are certain exceptions but a high percentage of the time they should automatically be eliminated.
Such proof is the ridiculous record for double digit home dogs in college football this year. I think they are hitting over 70% this year.
Such proof is the ridiculous record for double digit home dogs in college football this year. I think they are hitting over 70% this year.
